{"id":16767,"date":"2018-07-28T03:41:44","date_gmt":"2018-07-28T03:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16767"},"modified":"2018-07-28T03:55:14","modified_gmt":"2018-07-28T03:55:14","slug":"bullish-gdp-numbers-for-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/28\/bullish-gdp-numbers-for-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Bullish US GDP numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports<\/a> that real gross domestic product (real GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018. This is an advance estimate, based on incomplete data and is subject to further revision.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

While the spurt in quarterly growth is encouraging, I find annualized quarterly figures misleading and prefer to stick to the annual rate of change from the same quarter in the preceding year. Annual growth still reflects an improving economy but came in at 2.8 percent, more in line with the estimate of actual hours worked on the chart below.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

Personal consumption figures tend to decline ahead of a recession, so an up-tick in all three consumption measures is a positive sign for the US economy. Expenditures on durable goods is especially robust, suggesting growing consumer confidence. Non-durable expenditures are holding up, while services, which had been declining since a large spike in 2015, are maintaining at still strong levels.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

There is no sign of the US economy slowing. Continued growth and positive earnings results<\/a> should encourage investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that real gross domestic product (real GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018. This is an advance estimate, based on incomplete data and is subject to further revision. While the spurt in quarterly growth is encouraging, I find annualized quarterly … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bullish US GDP numbers”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,34],"tags":[1723,2645,2870],"class_list":["post-16767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-hours-worked","tag-personal-consumption","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"\nBullish US GDP numbers - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bullish US GDP numbers - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that real gross domestic product (real GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4mr","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16550,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/07\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-relief\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":0},"title":"S&P 500 and Nasdaq relief","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June average hourly earnings growth came in flat at 2.74% for Total Private sector and 2.72% for Production and Non-supervisory Employees. This suuports the argument that underlying inflation remains benign, easing pressure on the Fed to accelerate interest rates. The S&P 500 rallied off its long-term rising trendline. Follow-through above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20484,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sharp-fall-in-us-jobs-warns-of-economic-contraction-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":1},"title":"Sharp fall in US jobs warns of economic contraction ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims filed in the US in the last 7 weeks now total 33.5 million. Total employment in April 2020 fell by 12.9% when compared to twelve months earlier. We use total hours worked (total payroll * average weekly hours) to estimate GDP growth. It does tend to overshoot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61562,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/01\/tariffs-cloud-gdp-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":2},"title":"Tariffs cloud GDP outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary First quarter GDP estimates show the US economy contracted, which typically warns of a recession The GDP figures are distorted by a surge in imports by companies and consumers in advance of President Trump's tariffs, implemented in early April Front-running tariffs may also account for the rise in investment\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"10-Year Treasury Yield\"","block_context":{"text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/tag\/10-year-treasury-yield\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-01-realgdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-01-realgdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-01-realgdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":32570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/09\/us-labor-market-recovering-but-beware-high-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":3},"title":"US labor market recovering but beware of high interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 and Q2 are weak, at annualized rates of 0.37% and 2.16% respectively. But our real GDP estimates, based on weekly hours worked, show an April recovery to 3.46% (annualized) after an erratic first quarter that averaged 2.24%. That is in line with 3.5% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDPNow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12474,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/29\/us-robust-underlying-gdp-growth-trend\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":4},"title":"US: Robust underlying GDP growth trend","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 29, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in Q3, according to advance estimate https:\/\/t.co\/vWMdoOL9TA pic.twitter.com\/PFNZ7lXa8D\u2014 St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) October 29, 2015 From Elliot Clarke at Westpac: In assessing the strength and persistence of US growth, it is important to recognise the impact that inventories and net exports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Construction Spending","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-30-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-30-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-30-construction.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/","url_meta":{"origin":16767,"position":5},"title":"How long will the bull market last?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads -- lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield -- and VIX below 15 both reflect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16767"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16767\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16772,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16767\/revisions\/16772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}