{"id":16660,"date":"2018-07-14T02:59:48","date_gmt":"2018-07-14T02:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16660"},"modified":"2018-07-14T02:59:48","modified_gmt":"2018-07-14T02:59:48","slug":"asx-200-hesitates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/asx-200-hesitates\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200 hesitates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 300 Banks index broke resistance at 8000 and is retracing to test the new support level. The index remains in a primary down-trend and only a higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would reverse that.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-07-13-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A weaker Australian Dollar has made the banks, with their high dividend yields, more attractive to offshore investors. But the sector remains squeezed by <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/05\/australia-the-good-news-and-the-bad-news\/\">higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With retracing banks and <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/trade-tariff-impact-on-china-australia\/\">weaker prospects for miners<\/a>, the ASX 200 hesitated. Expect another retracement to test 6150, but respect is likely and would confirm the primary advance. Target is the October 2007 high at 6750.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-07-13-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Technical signals suggest a primary advance while <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/05\/australia-the-good-news-and-the-bad-news\/\">economic indicators<\/a> warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. So I remain cautious, with close to 30% cash in the <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/03\/australian-growth-portfolio\/\">Australian Growth<\/a> portfolio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 300 Banks index broke resistance at 8000 and is retracing to test the new support level. The index remains in a primary down-trend and only a higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would reverse that. A weaker Australian Dollar has made the banks, with their high dividend yields, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/asx-200-hesitates\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200 hesitates&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,261],"class_list":["post-16660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200 hesitates - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200 hesitates - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 300 Banks index broke resistance at 8000 and is retracing to test the new support level. The index remains in a primary down-trend and only a higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would reverse that. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"ASX 200 hesitates - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"ASX 200 hesitates - the patient investor","og_description":"The ASX 300 Banks index broke resistance at 8000 and is retracing to test the new support level. The index remains in a primary down-trend and only a higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would reverse that. 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A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend. The banking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16385,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/","url_meta":{"origin":16660,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200: China threat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 28, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy. Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports. Significant\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16538,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/06\/banks-lift-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":16660,"position":2},"title":"Banks lift ASX 200","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300. Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750. This leaves me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17195,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/20\/asx-finds-support-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":16660,"position":3},"title":"ASX finds support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 20, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support around 5900, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Breakout of Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would confirm. Breach of support at 5750 is unlikely but would warn of a primary down-trend. Banks are weighing the index down, with the ASX 300 Banks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14235,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/24\/australian-banks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":16660,"position":4},"title":"Australian banks rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 24, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is headed for another test of resistance at 5600. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breakout above 5600 is unlikely and breach of the lower trend channel would warn of a test of primary support at 5000\/5100. * Target calculation: 5400 + (\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/02\/asx-hopes-rely-on-iron-ore-and-tech-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":16660,"position":5},"title":"ASX hopes rely on iron ore and tech stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 2, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore reached $155\/metric ton, driven by surging demand from China, constrained supply from Brazil and, possibly, stockpiling in anticipation of further trade restrictions with Australia.. Surging iron ore prices boosted the Australian Dollar, offsetting some of the benefit to the economy. Our target is an exchange rate of 80\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16660"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16660\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16661,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16660\/revisions\/16661"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}