{"id":1660,"date":"2011-10-31T02:06:39","date_gmt":"2011-10-31T06:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=1660"},"modified":"2011-10-31T02:06:39","modified_gmt":"2011-10-31T06:06:39","slug":"the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/31\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\/","title":{"rendered":"The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What demographers call the Total Fertility Rate is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. In the long run, a population is said to be stable if the TFR is at the replacement rate, which is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole, and somewhat lower, at 2.1, for developed countries, reflecting their lower infant-mortality rates.<\/p>\n<p>The TFR for most developed countries now stands well below replacement levels. The OECD average is at around 1.74, but some countries, including Germany and Japan, produce less than 1.4 children per woman. However, the biggest TFR declines in recent years have been in developing countries. The TFR in China and India was 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, in 1950. It now stands at 1.8 in China, owing to the authorities\u2019 aggressive one-child policy, while rapid urbanization and changing social attitudes have brought down India\u2019s TFR to 2.6.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;. it is likely that world population will peak at nine billion in the 2050\u2019s, a half-century sooner than generally anticipated, followed a sharp decline. One could argue that this is a good thing, in view of the planet\u2019s limited carrying capacity. But, when demographic dynamics turn, the world will have to confront a different set of problems.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/sanyal3\/English\">The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What demographers call the Total Fertility Rate is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. In the long run, a population is said to be stable if the TFR is at the replacement rate, which is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole, and somewhat lower, at 2.1, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/31\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[664,1547,1810,1934,2547,3441,3709],"class_list":["post-1660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-other","tag-china-hk","tag-germany","tag-india","tag-japan","tag-oecd","tag-total-fertility-rate","tag-world-population"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The End of Population Growth - Sanjeev Sanyal - Project Syndicate - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The End of Population Growth - Sanjeev Sanyal - Project Syndicate - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What demographers call the Total Fertility Rate is the average number of live births per woman over her lifetime. In the long run, a population is said to be stable if the TFR is at the replacement rate, which is a little above 2.3 for the world as a whole, and somewhat lower, at 2.1, &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/31\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-10-31T06:06:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-10-31T06:06:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":223,\"commentCount\":4,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"China &amp; HK\",\"Germany\",\"India\",\"Japan\",\"OECD\",\"Total Fertility Rate\",\"world population\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Other\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/\",\"name\":\"The End of Population Growth - Sanjeev Sanyal - Project Syndicate - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-10-31T06:06:39+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2011\\\/10\\\/31\\\/the-end-of-population-growth-sanjeev-sanyal-project-syndicate\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The End of Population Growth &#8211; Sanjeev Sanyal &#8211; Project Syndicate\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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We are currently conducting an assessment of how current developments may impact previously identified trends. This is the first in a series of updates covering major trends. Investment Strategy: LT trends Many\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Africa &amp; South America&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Africa &amp; South America","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/africa-south-america\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12347,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/09\/23\/deflation-supercycle-is-over-as-world-runs-out-of-workers-telegraph\/","url_meta":{"origin":1660,"position":1},"title":"Deflation supercycle is over as world runs out of workers | Telegraph","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"....The world fertility rate has steadily declined to 2.43 births per woman from 4.85 in 1970 , with a precipitous collapse over the past 20 years in east Asia. The latest estimates are: India (2.5), France (2.1), US (2.0), UK (1.9), Brazil (1.8), Russia and Canada (1.6), China (1.55), Spain\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5990,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","url_meta":{"origin":1660,"position":2},"title":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China's richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China's poorer provinces continue\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/14\/labor-productivity-can-be-misleading\/","url_meta":{"origin":1660,"position":3},"title":"Labor productivity can be misleading","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"We are frequently bombarded with labor productivity statistics such as output per hour worked and unit labor costs -- normally accompanied by political hand-wringing exhorting us to improve productivity -- but how accurate are these statistics and what do they mean? First let's look at GDP per capita. This should\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6253,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/22\/health-costs-how-the-u-s-compares-with-other-countries-pbs-newshour\/","url_meta":{"origin":1660,"position":4},"title":"Health Costs: How the U.S. Compares With Other Countries &#124; PBS NewsHour","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"US health care costs are high relative to other OECD countries but average US life expectancy (78.7 years) in 2010 is below the OECD average of 79.8 years. These two OECD charts sum up the problem: Germany (DEU) is lowest for most procedures -- in many cases less than half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14364,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/","url_meta":{"origin":1660,"position":5},"title":"China faces debt trifecta","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From PIMCO: Given the size of its economy \u2013 and the high stock of debt for a country at its stage of development \u2013 China\u2019s leverage will be a global issue in the future, not just a China issue. Total debt to GDP in China was around 250% at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1660\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}