{"id":16538,"date":"2018-07-06T22:37:35","date_gmt":"2018-07-06T22:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16538"},"modified":"2018-07-06T22:37:35","modified_gmt":"2018-07-06T22:37:35","slug":"banks-lift-asx-200","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/06\/banks-lift-asx-200\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks lift ASX 200"},"content":{"rendered":"

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

This leaves me in a difficult position. Technical signals suggest a primary advance, while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market.<\/p>\n

Banks<\/h3>\n

The banking sector is being squeezed by higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Gerard Minack from Minack Advisers warns that the current credit contraction could cause a significant fall in housing prices<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Most houses are bought on credit, so the demand for housing is a function of the supply of credit. Consequently, housing loan approvals have historically led house prices. New loan approvals have fallen by around 20% year-over-year several times over the past 25 years. If the current credit contraction is more severe \u2013 say, a decline of up to 30% \u2013 then nationwide house prices could fall high single digits over the coming year.<\/p>\n

….All this suggests that a high single-digit decline in house prices would put a material dent in domestic demand. If prices were to fall by, say, 15%, and if consumer income growth was as tepid as it now is, there would be a good chance of recession.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Resources<\/h3>\n

A falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n

\"CNY\/USD\"<\/p>\n

Commodity prices have responded, falling to test primary support levels.<\/p>\n

\"DJ-UBS<\/p>\n

Including iron ore.<\/p>\n

\"Iron<\/p>\n

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing medium-term support at 3800. Breach is likely and would warn of a correction to test the rising trendline.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

My approach is to sit with one foot either side of the fence. Focus on growth sectors. Stay away from Banks. Stay away from Resources but stay in Gold. And keep a healthy percentage of the Australian portfolio<\/a> in Cash and reasonably secure interest-bearing investments. Definitely not hybrids.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300. Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750. This leaves me in a difficult position. Technical … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Banks lift ASX 200”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,57],"tags":[251,260,262,678,1064,1902],"class_list":["post-16538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-chinese-yuan","tag-dj-ubs-commodity-index","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"\nBanks lift ASX 200 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Banks lift ASX 200 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300. Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750. This leaves me in a difficult position. 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The index remains in a primary down-trend and only a higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would reverse that. A weaker Australian Dollar has made the banks,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16707,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/20\/banks-buoy-the-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":16538,"position":1},"title":"Banks buoy the ASX 200","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 20, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index overcame resistance at 8000 after retracement successfully respected the new support level. Breach of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend. The banking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/28\/iron-ore-bounce-lifts-the-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":16538,"position":2},"title":"Iron ore bounce lifts the ASX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 28, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore spot prices bounced off support at $63\/tonne. Follow-through above $68 would suggest another rally to test resistance at $80 but that seems unlikely given the current threat of a trade war. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 3750. Breakout above 4000 would signal another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17377,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/09\/bank-miners-rally-should-lift-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":16538,"position":3},"title":"Bank & miners rally should lift ASX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 displays a cautious rally, with short candles reflecting an absence of buyer enthusiasm. But bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates longer-term confidence. The monthly chart shows similar rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, reflecting buyer confidence. Recovery above 6000 would be bullish, suggesting another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14581,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/asx-banks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":16538,"position":4},"title":"ASX banks rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5500. Rising Money Flow indicates selling pressure has ended. Breakout above 5500 would complete a bear trap, indicating a primary advance to 5800*. ASX 300 Banks Index followed through above 8000 after a brief retracement respected the new support level. Target for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17010,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/07\/asx-200-banks-miners-lead-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":16538,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: Banks & miners lead correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700 after respecting its new resistance level at 8000. Breach of support is likely and would signal another test of primary support at 7300. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke short-term support at 3600 and is headed for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16538"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16546,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16538\/revisions\/16546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}