{"id":16385,"date":"2018-06-28T08:37:48","date_gmt":"2018-06-28T08:37:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16385"},"modified":"2018-07-06T08:38:25","modified_gmt":"2018-07-06T08:38:25","slug":"asx-200-china-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200: China threat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"CNY\/USD\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-china.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China Foreign Reserves\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant monetary easing by the PBOC is also likely, to stimulate domestic demand. Driving the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2017\/08\/15\/chinas-debt-boom-could-lead-financial-crisis-imf-warns\/\">Debt-to-GDP ratio<\/a> into the stratosphere.<\/p>\n<p>The Aussie Dollar would act as a shock-absorber, following the path of the Yuan.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-aud.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"AUD\/USD\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Cushioning the blow to Australian exporters.<\/p>\n<p>So far, Resources stocks are unfazed. The ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining index is consolidating below 4000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 300 Banks index ran into stiff resistance at 8000. Expect another test of primary support at 7300 but this is not related to trade tariffs.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 appears unperturbed by the international turmoil, retracing calmly to test its new support level at 6150. Respect would signal another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy. Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports. Significant monetary easing by the PBOC &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200: China threat&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,40,41,42,57],"tags":[251,260,262,292,678],"class_list":["post-16385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aussie-dollar","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-chinese-yuan","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-australian-dollar","tag-chinese-yuan"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200: China threat - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200: China threat - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy. Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports. Significant monetary easing by the PBOC &hellip; Continue reading &quot;ASX 200: China threat&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-28T08:37:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-07-06T08:38:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX 200: China threat\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-28T08:37:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-07-06T08:38:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\"},\"wordCount\":160,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"ASX 300 Banks\",\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\",\"Australian Dollar\",\"Chinese Yuan\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Aussie dollar\",\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"China &amp; HK\",\"Chinese Yuan\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\",\"name\":\"ASX 200: China threat - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-28T08:37:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-07-06T08:38:25+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-28-cny.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/28\/asx-200-china-threat\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"ASX 200: China threat\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"ASX 200: China threat - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"ASX 200: China threat - the patient investor","og_description":"A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy. Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4gh","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16656,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/trade-tariff-impact-on-china-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":0},"title":"Trade tariff impact on China &#038; Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The yuan is falling as threat of a tariff war rises. The Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2016 low at 2700. Breach would warn of a decline to the 2014 low at 2000. Commodity prices are plunging in anticipation of falling demand from China. Chinese monthly iron ore imports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16524,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/06\/gold-dollar-and-the-yuan\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":1},"title":"Gold, Dollar and the Yuan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Yuan fell sharply over the last 3 weeks, with the threat of US trade tariffs. Risk of capital flight will force the PBOC to sell foreign reserves to support the Yuan. It took $1 trillion to stem the last fall, so expect a sizable sell-off in Chinese holdings of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24561,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/15\/aussie-dollar-shadows-chinese-yuan\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":2},"title":"Aussie Dollar shadows Chinese Yuan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent analysis from Nordea: In 2021, China\u2019s growth momentum cools off and the focus of global growth will temporarily move to other countries, which should be a negative factor for the CNY. In a longer horizon, China\u2019s ambition continues to be high. .....China\u2019s policy stance is tightening as the focus\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16654,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/gold-tests-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":3},"title":"Gold tests support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China continues to support the Yuan and we can expect consolidation around 15 US cents. Threat of trade tariffs is weakening the Yuan, forcing the PBOC to sell off foreign reserves to prevent a downward spiral as investors flee and borrowers hedge against the stronger Dollar. PBOC sale of foreign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13420,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/26\/gold-tanked-not-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":4},"title":"Gold tanked? Not yet!","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke below its recent flag formation, warning of a test of support at $1200\/ounce. Selling is driven by expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in June .....and recent Chinese stimulus which postponed Yuan devaluation against the Dollar. But expectations of a rate hike are causing a sell-off of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-26-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-26-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-26-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17806,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/29\/gold-and-the-dollar-direction\/","url_meta":{"origin":16385,"position":5},"title":"Gold and the Dollar direction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude Oil (WTI Light Crude) respected support at $45\/barrel, with turmoil in Venezuela raising concerns over supply. Breakout above $55 would signal another rally but declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Expect another test of $45. Breach of support would signal a decline to test the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Chinese Yuan&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Chinese Yuan","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/chinese-yuan\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16385"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16385\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16537,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16385\/revisions\/16537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}