{"id":16373,"date":"2018-06-27T05:56:46","date_gmt":"2018-06-27T05:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16373"},"modified":"2018-06-27T07:16:10","modified_gmt":"2018-06-27T07:16:10","slug":"australias-debt-bomb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/27\/australias-debt-bomb\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia&#8217;s Debt Bomb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5hJpC3bmzZU?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Hat tip to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2018\/06\/australias-mortgage-debt-bomb\/\">Macrobusiness<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Comment:<\/p>\n<p>I do take issue with the comparison of CPI to Broad Money growth. Broad money growth should closely match nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) and not just inflation or its surrogate, CPI. The chart below compares nominal GDP in the USA to the money supply (MZM + time deposits is not quite the same as the official definition of Broad Money).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Nominal GDP and Money Supply\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-27-gdp-money.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed opened the spigots before the last two recessions, without much effect &mdash; in an attempt to inflate the economy out of a recession &mdash; and closed them too quickly in 2010, causing a hiccup in the recovery. Since then money supply growth has normalized at close to the increase in nominal GDP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy. &#8220;I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.&#8221; Hat tip to Macrobusiness. Comment: I do take issue with the comparison of CPI to Broad Money growth. Broad money growth should closely match nominal GDP &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/27\/australias-debt-bomb\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australia&#8217;s Debt Bomb&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,45,29,33,34],"tags":[967,1828,3826],"class_list":["post-16373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-debt-levels","category-the-big-picture","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-debt-levels-2","tag-inflation","tag-structural-imbalances","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia&#039;s Debt Bomb - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia&#039;s Debt Bomb - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Martin North interviews economist John Adams about structural imbalances in the Australian (and global) economy. &#8220;I do think they will try to print their way out of this problem.&#8221; Hat tip to Macrobusiness. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4g5","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16662,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/14\/cpi-rises-but-us-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":0},"title":"CPI rises but US stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"June consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.8% but forward estimates of inflation, represented by the 5-Year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS) remain subdued at 2.06%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 2.2% while average hourly earnings (total private: production and non-supervisory employees) annual growth, representing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20842,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/26\/gold-inflation-or-real-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":1},"title":"Gold &#038; Inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Our interest in inflation is primarily focused on its expected impact on the Gold price. The Institute of Economic affairs recently published a report by Juan Castaneda and Tim Congdon from the Institute of International Monetary Research (IIMR) that warns of an inflation spike over the next two years because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":65259,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/15\/separate-the-wheat-from-the-chaff\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":2},"title":"Separate the Wheat from the Chaff","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The consumer price index fell sharply in June, driven by steep declines in gasoline and diesel prices. Interest rate expectations dipped, with 2-year Treasury yields falling to 4.206% and the 10-year to 4.575%. The Dollar weakened, causing a rally in Gold and base metals. Most of these daily\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-14-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-14-cpi-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-14-cpi-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/sp-500-volatility-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 volatility falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Philadelphia Fed Leading Index at 1.42 for June 2018 maintains a healthy margin above the 1% level that would warn of a potential slow-down. The picture reinforces a steeply-climbing Freight Transportation Index, indicating strong economic activity. Concerns that the economy may over-heat, spiking inflation, are not reflected in strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41398,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/29\/australia-team-transitory\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Team Transitory","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Monthly CPI dipped to 6.8% for the 12 months ended February, with core CPI not far behind at 6.9%, feeding speculation that the RBA will hike rates one more time, by 25 basis points on April 4, and then pause. That would mean a peak cash rate of 3.85% if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23764,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/20\/us-federal-debt-dilemma\/","url_meta":{"origin":16373,"position":5},"title":"US federal debt dilemma","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Paul Krugman has a simple solution to the US federal debt: We have been pointing out for while that the US Treasury is unlikely to ever repay the federal debt and instead will rely on inflation to lift GDP (and tax revenues). Krugman overlooks one significant problem, however. Federal debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16373"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16373\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16379,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16373\/revisions\/16379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}