{"id":16350,"date":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","date_gmt":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16350"},"modified":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","modified_gmt":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","slug":"sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since my <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/13\/market-volatility-and-the-sp-500\/\">February 13th newsletter<\/a> flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because of elevated risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&#038;P 500 and Twiggs Volatility\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yesterday, Volatility (Twiggs 21-Day) on the S&amp;P 500 retreated below 1.0 percent, suggesting a return to the lower-risk green zone. Breakout above 2800 would signal reviving investor confidence, and an advance to test 3000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since my February 13th newsletter flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[3010,3772],"class_list":["post-16350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-sp-500","tag-twiggs-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since my February 13th newsletter flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":95,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"keywords\":[\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Twiggs Volatility\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Volatility is falling and a dip below 1.0% would suggest that the market has returned to business as usual. Twiggs Money Flow remains a respectable distance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24409,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/06\/sp-500-warns-of-elevated-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500 warns of elevated risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied Friday despite rising long-term Treasury yields. Troughs in 21-day Volatility above the 1.0% level continue to warn of elevated risk. The price-earnings multiple based on highest trailing earnings (PEmax) has climbed to 27.55. The second highest peak in the past 120 years. Conclusion We continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17860,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":2},"title":"More signs of risk avoidance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg: \"U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":3},"title":"Don&#8217;t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16371,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/23\/sp-500-retraces-while-shanghai-shudders\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 retraces while Shanghai shudders","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 2800. Retracement is modest and I expect support above the rising trendline (2700). Volatility (Twiggs 21-Day) is below 1.0%, indicating that market risk has returned to normal levels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is in a stronger position, making a new high at 7300,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35743,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/16\/retail-sales-and-volatility-warn-of-extreme-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":5},"title":"Retail sales and volatility warn of extreme risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 16, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales (ex motor & parts) grew to 553 billion in June. Consumers are spending well above trend (dotted line), warning that inflation is going to be difficult to tame. The Fed is going to have to hike rates a lot higher than 4.0% to get ahead of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Retail Sales (ex Motor vehicles & parts)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-15-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-15-retail.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16350"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16351,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350\/revisions\/16351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}