{"id":16350,"date":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","date_gmt":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16350"},"modified":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","modified_gmt":"2018-06-12T04:45:58","slug":"sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since my <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/13\/market-volatility-and-the-sp-500\/\">February 13th newsletter<\/a> flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because of elevated risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&#038;P 500 and Twiggs Volatility\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yesterday, Volatility (Twiggs 21-Day) on the S&amp;P 500 retreated below 1.0 percent, suggesting a return to the lower-risk green zone. Breakout above 2800 would signal reviving investor confidence, and an advance to test 3000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since my February 13th newsletter flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[3010,3772],"class_list":["post-16350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-sp-500","tag-twiggs-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since my February 13th newsletter flagged rising market volatility, market risk has been at the amber level, with 21-day Twiggs Volatility fluctuating between 1.0 and 2.0 percent on the S&amp;P 500. A large trough that respects the 1.0 percent level, as in 2015 below, would be sufficient warning to cut back exposure to stocks because &hellip; Continue reading &quot;S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/12\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":95,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"keywords\":[\"S&amp;P 500\",\"Twiggs Volatility\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Volatility back in the green zone - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-06-12T04:45:58+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-06-12-spx-vty.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/06\\\/12\\\/sp-500-volatility-back-in-the-green-zone\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility back in the green zone\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Volatility is falling and a dip below 1.0% would suggest that the market has returned to business as usual. Twiggs Money Flow remains a respectable distance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24409,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/06\/sp-500-warns-of-elevated-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500 warns of elevated risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied Friday despite rising long-term Treasury yields. Troughs in 21-day Volatility above the 1.0% level continue to warn of elevated risk. The price-earnings multiple based on highest trailing earnings (PEmax) has climbed to 27.55. The second highest peak in the past 120 years. Conclusion We continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17860,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/08\/more-signs-of-risk-avoidance\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":2},"title":"More signs of risk avoidance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg: \"U.S. stocks slid as investors grew anxious that the Trump administration won\u2019t reach a trade deal with China before a March deadline for escalating the war. Treasuries surged. The post-Christmas rally that added 16 percent to the S&P 500 came under increasing pressure amid reports the two trading partners\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41044,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/01\/dont-trust-the-vix\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":3},"title":"Don&#8217;t trust the VIX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year US Treasury yields broke resistance at 3.90% and are now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm the target of 4.20%. The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 4200 over the last month as long-term yields rose. Annual rate-of-change continues to signal a bear market. Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-01-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16371,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/23\/sp-500-retraces-while-shanghai-shudders\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 retraces while Shanghai shudders","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 retreated from resistance at 2800. Retracement is modest and I expect support above the rising trendline (2700). Volatility (Twiggs 21-Day) is below 1.0%, indicating that market risk has returned to normal levels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is in a stronger position, making a new high at 7300,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16114,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/13\/market-volatility-and-the-sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":16350,"position":5},"title":"Market Volatility and the S&#038;P 500","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 13, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It was clear from investment managers' comments at the start of the year \u2014 even Jeremy Grantham's meltup \u2014 that most expected a rally followed by an adjustment later in the year or early next year. Valuations are high and the focus has started to swing away from making further\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16350"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16351,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16350\/revisions\/16351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}