{"id":16261,"date":"2018-05-12T04:28:08","date_gmt":"2018-05-12T04:28:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16261"},"modified":"2018-05-12T04:44:27","modified_gmt":"2018-05-12T04:44:27","slug":"no-fed-squeeze-in-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/no-fed-squeeze-in-sight\/","title":{"rendered":"No Fed Squeeze in Sight"},"content":{"rendered":"

In January<\/a> I warned that the Fed’s normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken.<\/p>\n

10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout would signal the end of a decades-long bull market in bonds and start of a bear market as yields rise.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend but the recent rally above the descending trendline suggests that a bottom may be forming.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Commodity prices, which I suggested would climb as the Dollar weakened, are strengthening but remain in an ascending triangle, testing resistance at 90 on the Dow Jones – UBS Commodity Index.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Crude, however, is surging and commodities are likely to follow.<\/p>\n

\"WTI<\/p>\n

Rising commodity prices — especially crude — would lift inflation, raising the threat of tighter Fed monetary policy.<\/p>\n

Until now, financial markets have absorbed the Fed shrinking its balance sheet. Primarily because there hasn’t been any contractionary effect at all.<\/p>\n

The orange line on the chart below shows Fed assets net of excess reserves of commercial banks on deposit at the Fed. If commercial banks withdraw excess reserves at a faster rate than the Fed shrinks its balance sheet then the net effect is expansionary, with a rising orange line as at present. There are still $2 trillion of excess reserves on deposit at the Fed, so this could go on for years.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

The Fed funds rate is climbing, but at a measured pace. I doubt that the market will be too concerned by the FFR at 2.0 percent. The threat is if the Fed accelerates rate hikes in response to rising inflation, as in 2004 to 2006.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Inflationary forces remain subdued, with the average hourly wage rate growing at a modest 2.6 percent a year. <\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

A spike above 3.0 percent would spur the Fed into action but there is no sign, so far, as rising automation and competition from offshore labor markets ease upward pressure despite low unemployment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In January I warned that the Fed’s normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken. 10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent. Breakout would signal the end … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “No Fed Squeeze in Sight”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,13,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"\nNo Fed Squeeze in Sight - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No Fed Squeeze in Sight - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In January I warned that the Fed’s normalization plan, which will shrink its balance sheet at the rate of $100 billion in 2018 and $200 billion a year thereafter, would cause Treasury yields to rise and the Dollar to weaken. 10-Year Treasury yields are now testing resistance at 3.0 percent. 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Ten-year Treasury yields found support at 4.50%, rallying to 4.65% early today. 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The 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbed to 2.54%, giving a negative real yield of -0.94% (1.60 - 2.54). From Anders Persson at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":46393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/14\/dovish-fed-dollar-falls-gold-climbs\/","url_meta":{"origin":16261,"position":2},"title":"Dovish Fed, Dollar falls, Gold climbs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields plunged in response to a dovish Fed meeting which kept rates on hold, with a target range of 5.25% - 5.00%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now testing our target at 4.0%. Declining inflation and signs of labor market easing moved the FOMC to discard the additional rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-14-10y-666x451.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/25\/how-qe-reversal-will-impact-on-financial-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":16261,"position":3},"title":"How QE reversal will impact on financial markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 25, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The Federal Reserve last year announced plans to shrink its balance sheet which had grown to $4.5 trillion under the quantitative easing (QE) program. According to its June 2017 Normalization Plan, the Fed will scale back reinvestment at the rate of $10 billion per month and step this up every\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/2018-01-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24635,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/gold-and-another-treasury-sequel\/","url_meta":{"origin":16261,"position":4},"title":"Gold and another Treasury sequel","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are strengthening, with the 10-year reaching 1.73% on Friday. The real yield shrank to -0.58% (1.73 - 2.31), breaking resistance at -0.60%. Long-term yields may be rallying but the primary trend is downward. Fed asset purchases are accelerating. The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 92. Rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":55133,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/02\/more-cracks-in-the-3-pillars-supporting-stocks-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16261,"position":5},"title":"More cracks in the 3 pillars supporting stocks & bonds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The three pillars supporting stock and bond prices show more cracks. Crude oil prices are rising, 10-year Treasury yields jumped sharply, and financial market liquidity is contracting. Crude Oil Brent crude broke resistance at $86 per barrel, confirming an advance with a target of $91. Nymex WTI crude jumped sharply\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-01-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-01-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-01-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16261"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16265,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16261\/revisions\/16265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}