{"id":16259,"date":"2018-05-12T02:40:53","date_gmt":"2018-05-12T02:40:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16259"},"modified":"2018-05-12T02:40:53","modified_gmt":"2018-05-12T02:40:53","slug":"asx-200-bi-polar-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A sign of the economy&#8217;s good health is the largess distributed in Treasurer Scott Morrison&#8217;s recent budget, without wrecking the fiscal balance sheet. Net Debt is projected to peak at 18.6 percent of GDP in 2017\/2018, with the budget returning to surplus in 2019\/2020.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"2018\/2019 Budget Net Debt and Fiscal Deficit\/Surplus\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-deficit.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 80%;\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.budget.gov.au\/2018-19\/content\/overview.html\">Budget.gov.au<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6100\/6150 despite the weakening Australian Dollar and troubled banking sector. Breakout above 6150 would signal a primary advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Led by the ASX 300 Metals &#038; Mining Index. Breakout above 3800 signals a fresh primary advance, with a medium-term target of 4200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-xmm.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But the ASX 300 Banks Index is in a primary down-trend, having broken support at 8000. Retracement that respects the new resistance level at 8000\/8100 is likely and would confirm a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 7200.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We have a bi-polar economy, with Resources exports surging, along with Services and Rural (agriculture). Manufacturing exports are the only flat spot. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Export Volumes\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-exports.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But the banking sector faces challenges from a threatened housing down-turn, with near zero house price growth, and a regulator racing to shore up bank balance sheets before the bubble bursts.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Price Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A sign of the economy&#8217;s good health is the largess distributed in Treasurer Scott Morrison&#8217;s recent budget, without wrecking the fiscal balance sheet. Net Debt is projected to peak at 18.6 percent of GDP in 2017\/2018, with the budget returning to surplus in 2019\/2020. Source: Budget.gov.au The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6100\/6150 despite &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;ASX 200: Bi-polar economy&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,57],"tags":[251,261,262,3819,3817,3818],"class_list":["post-16259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks-index","tag-asx-300-metals-mining","tag-australia-fiscal-deficit","tag-australian-exports","tag-australian-housing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ASX 200: Bi-polar economy - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A sign of the economy&#8217;s good health is the largess distributed in Treasurer Scott Morrison&#8217;s recent budget, without wrecking the fiscal balance sheet. Net Debt is projected to peak at 18.6 percent of GDP in 2017\/2018, with the budget returning to surplus in 2019\/2020. Source: Budget.gov.au The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6100\/6150 despite &hellip; Continue reading &quot;ASX 200: Bi-polar economy&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/12\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-05-12T02:40:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-05-11-deficit.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-05-12T02:40:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":180,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-05-11-deficit.png\",\"keywords\":[\"ASX 200\",\"ASX 300 Banks Index\",\"ASX 300 Metals &amp; Mining\",\"Australia fiscal deficit\",\"Australian exports\",\"Australian housing\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/\",\"name\":\"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-05-11-deficit.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-05-12T02:40:53+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-05-11-deficit.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-05-11-deficit.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/05\\\/12\\\/asx-200-bi-polar-economy\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"ASX 200: Bi-polar economy - the patient investor","og_description":"A sign of the economy&#8217;s good health is the largess distributed in Treasurer Scott Morrison&#8217;s recent budget, without wrecking the fiscal balance sheet. Net Debt is projected to peak at 18.6 percent of GDP in 2017\/2018, with the budget returning to surplus in 2019\/2020. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4ef","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16248,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/05\/asx-200-tests-resistance-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":0},"title":"ASX 200 tests resistance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6100\/6150 despite a weakening Australian Dollar and a troubled banking sector. Breakout above 6150 would signal a welcome fresh advance. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices But I remain skeptical because the largest sector, Financials \u2014 whose market cap is a third of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16363,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/16\/asx-200-strengthens-despite-banks-and-iron-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 strengthens despite banks and iron prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 16, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore prices are weakening, with spot testing support at $62\/tonne. A Trend Index peak below zero would complete a bearish outlook, warning of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at $58 would confirm a primary down-trend. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing resistance at 4000, remaining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17010,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/07\/asx-200-banks-miners-lead-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":2},"title":"ASX 200: Banks &#038; miners lead correction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700 after respecting its new resistance level at 8000. Breach of support is likely and would signal another test of primary support at 7300. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke short-term support at 3600 and is headed for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17059,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/15\/asx-200-correction-to-test-6000\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200: Correction to test 6000","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is also headed for a test of primary support,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/06\/09\/is-asx-200-resurgence-sustainable\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":4},"title":"Is ASX 200 resurgence sustainable?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support at 5950\/6000, a bullish sign. Large bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) continues to warn of selling pressure but breakout above 6150 would signal a fresh primary advance. Breach of 5950 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17085,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/22\/asx-200-banks-lack-support-but-miners-receive-a-boost\/","url_meta":{"origin":16259,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200: Banks lack support but miners receive a boost","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 correction continues to test medium-term support at 6150. Small candles on the weekly chart indicate a lack of enthusiasm from buyers and support is unlikely to hold. Breach would signal a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000. The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16259"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16260,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16259\/revisions\/16260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}