{"id":16252,"date":"2018-05-07T23:30:42","date_gmt":"2018-05-07T23:30:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16252"},"modified":"2018-05-07T23:30:42","modified_gmt":"2018-05-07T23:30:42","slug":"bob-doll-first-quarter-earnings-continue-to-impress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/07\/bob-doll-first-quarter-earnings-continue-to-impress\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Doll: First quarter earnings continue to impress"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Bob Doll\"  src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/bobdoll.jpg?w=300&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>More positive news on earnings from Bob Doll&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nuveen.com\/bob-doll-weekly-commentary?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&#038;utm_campaign=Bob%20Doll%20Weekly%20Commentary%20(13)&#038;spReportId=MTQwMDYxMzEwMQS2\">weekly newsletter<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;..2. First quarter earnings results continue to impress, helped by tax cuts. With 85% of companies reporting, earnings are ahead of expectations by an average of 7.3%.<sup>1<\/sup> Earnings-per-share growth is on track for 25%.<sup>1<\/sup> Were it not for the effects of tax cuts, that number would be only 18%.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>3. Even if earnings are peaking, that does not necessarily mean the equity bull market is ending. According to one study, since the 1950s, a cyclical peak in earnings growth has tended to be followed by stock prices moving higher: From a peak in earnings-per-share growth, stock prices were still higher six months later 74% of the time and were higher 12 months later 68% of the time.<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Fears of an earnings peak may be overblown, with inflation low, rate hikes at a measured pace, consumption strong and inflation contained despite low unemployment. Upside and downside risks appear balanced in this summary adapted by Nuveen from Morgan Stanley:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Reasons to be optimistic<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) First quarter earnings are very strong.<br \/>\n2) Equity valuations are reasonable.<br \/>\n3) Corporate America is flush with cash.<br \/>\n4) U.S. growth momentum may be plateauing, but is not slowing.<br \/>\n5) Trade restrictions have not been as severe as feared.<br \/>\n6) Global monetary policy remains accommodative.<br \/>\n7) North Korea risks have eased.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reasons to be cautious<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1) Margin pressures could hurt future earnings.<br \/>\n2) Higher rates could represent a headwind for valuations.<br \/>\n3) Political risks may rise as the midterm elections approach.<br \/>\n4) Global growth may start to slow in the coming years.<br \/>\n5) Trade policy remains a long-term risk.<br \/>\n6) Investors may be too complacent about monetary tightening.<br \/>\n7) President Trump\u2019s legal issues could escalate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But it would be foolish to ignore either upside or downside risk. Adopting a <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/\">balanced strategy<\/a> may be the most sensible approach.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:80%;\"><sup>1<\/sup>Source: Credit Suisse.<br \/>\n<sup>2<\/sup>Source: BMO Capital Markets<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>More positive news on earnings from Bob Doll&#8217;s weekly newsletter: &#8230;..2. First quarter earnings results continue to impress, helped by tax cuts. With 85% of companies reporting, earnings are ahead of expectations by an average of 7.3%.1 Earnings-per-share growth is on track for 25%.1 Were it not for the effects of tax cuts, that number &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/07\/bob-doll-first-quarter-earnings-continue-to-impress\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Bob Doll: First quarter earnings continue to impress&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,13,34],"tags":[1156,3816],"class_list":["post-16252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-dividends","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-earnings-growth","tag-earnings-peak"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bob Doll: First quarter earnings continue to impress - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bob Doll: First quarter earnings continue to impress - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"More positive news on earnings from Bob Doll&#8217;s weekly newsletter: &#8230;..2. First quarter earnings results continue to impress, helped by tax cuts. 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While this could be a spill-over of offshore funds repatriated as a result of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, companies have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18544,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/rate-cuts-and-buybacks-the-emperors-new-clothes\/","url_meta":{"origin":16252,"position":1},"title":"Rate cuts and buybacks &#8211; the emperor&#8217;s new clothes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The interest rate outlook is softening, with Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinting at rate cuts in his Wednesday testimony to Congress: \"Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to move back over time.\" but.... \"Uncertainties about the outlook have increased\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16199,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/23\/bob-doll-first-quarter-corporate-earnings-highly-impressive\/","url_meta":{"origin":16252,"position":2},"title":"Bob Doll: First quarter corporate earnings highly impressive","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Bob Doll reports positive first quarter results so far in his weekly newsletter: First quarter corporate earnings have been highly impressive. With approximately 20% of companies reporting, 81% have exceeded expectations by an average of 6.4%2. This compares to an average beat of 4.7% over the last three years, which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26535,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/26\/sp-500-and-the-fed-taper\/","url_meta":{"origin":16252,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and the Fed taper","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P 500 earnings forecasts show a sizable jump in the March quarter (97.3% reported) followed by a weaker June quarter as the economy struggles with supply chain interruptions and labor shortages. Record operating margins of 13.0% estimated for the first quarter (March '21) are unlikely to be repeated. The average\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52881,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/15\/sp-500-fundamentals-dont-stack-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":16252,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 fundamentals don&#8217;t stack up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 threatens another advance, fueled by easy monetary conditions, but the fundamentals don't stack up. Sales and earnings multiples are stretched despite weak expected sales and earnings growth for the March quarter -- with 458 of 503 stocks in the index having reported. S&P 500 The index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17828,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/04\/resmed-inc-rmd-financial-performance-fy18\/","url_meta":{"origin":16252,"position":5},"title":"ResMed Inc (RMD) &#8211; Financial Performance FY18","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Revenue & Earnings Revenue per share grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% between FY09 and FY18 while earnings per share (EPS) slowed noticeably in FY15 to FY17 before picking up in FY18. Earnings per share in FY18 and TTM are adjusted for US$ 138 million of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Revenue and Earnings per share","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/rmd_1_revenue_2018-12-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16252"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16252\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16253,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16252\/revisions\/16253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}