{"id":16180,"date":"2018-04-16T05:49:39","date_gmt":"2018-04-16T05:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16180"},"modified":"2018-04-16T05:49:39","modified_gmt":"2018-04-16T05:49:39","slug":"does-china-have-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/does-china-have-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Does China have the &#8216;financial arsenic&#8217; to ruin the US?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The media has been highly critical of Donald Trump&#8217;s threatened tariff war with China, suggesting that China has the stronger hand.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"noul\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LindaDono\/status\/982967970811932672\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Twitter: US-China trade deficit\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-09-tw-tradewar.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I disagree on two points:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Trump is right to confront China. Even <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/09\/trade-wars-playing-hardball-with-china\/\">Paul Krugman<\/a>, not a noted Trump supporter, called for this in 2010.<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s position may not be as strong as many assume. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard sums this up neatly in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/business\/investments\/china-has-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us-but-will-it-use-it-20180407-p4z89u.html\">The Age<\/a>:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote><p>The Bank for International Settlements says offshore dollar debt has ballooned to $US25 trillion in direct loans and equivalent derivatives. At least $US1.7 trillion is debt owed by Chinese companies, often circumventing credit curbs at home. Any serious stress in the world financial system quickly turns into a vast dollar &#8220;margin call&#8221;. Woe betide any debtor who had to roll over three-month funding.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.ffx.io\/images\/$width_780%2C$height_439\/t_crop_auto\/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto\/27c960b9e3e5fb3b013d72a236b991a92837f573\" alt=\"The Communist Party leadership will not kowtow to Donald Trump.\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\">Photo: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>The financial &#8220;carry trade&#8221; would seize up across Asia, now the epicentre of global financial risk. Nomura said the region is a flashing map of red alerts under the bank&#8217;s predictive model of future financial blow-ups. East Asia is vulnerable to any external upset. The world biggest &#8220;credit gap&#8221; is in Hong Kong where the overshoot above trend is 45 per cent of GDP. It is an accident waiting to happen.<\/p>\n<p>China is of course a command economy with a state-controlled banking system. It can bathe the economy with stimulus and order lenders to refinance bad debts. It has adequate foreign reserve cover to bail out its foreign currency debtors. But it is also dangerously stretched, with an &#8220;augmented fiscal deficit&#8221; above 12 per cent of GDP.<\/p>\n<p>It is grappling with the aftermath of an immense credit bubble that has pushed its debt-to-GDP ratio from 130 per cent to 270 per cent in 11 years, and it has reached credit saturation. Each yuan of new debt creates barely 0.3 yuan of extra GDP. The model is exhausted.<\/p>\n<p>China has little to gain and much to lose from irate and impulsive gestures. Its deep interests are better served by seeking out the high ground &#8211; hoping the world will quietly forgive two decades of technology piracy &#8211; and biding its time as Mr Trump destroys American credibility in Asia.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The media has been highly critical of Donald Trump&#8217;s threatened tariff war with China, suggesting that China has the stronger hand. I disagree on two points: Trump is right to confront China. Even Paul Krugman, not a noted Trump supporter, called for this in 2010. China&#8217;s position may not be as strong as many assume. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/does-china-have-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Does China have the &#8216;financial arsenic&#8217; to ruin the US?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,3778,34],"tags":[663,3782,3459,3570],"class_list":["post-16180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-international-trade","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-china","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-wars","tag-usa"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does China have the &#039;financial arsenic&#039; to ruin the US? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Does China have the &#039;financial arsenic&#039; to ruin the US? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The media has been highly critical of Donald Trump&#8217;s threatened tariff war with China, suggesting that China has the stronger hand. I disagree on two points: Trump is right to confront China. Even Paul Krugman, not a noted Trump supporter, called for this in 2010. 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China is unlikely to abandon its investment-led growth model that has delivered much progress in the past 25 years. However, China's model is damaging the global economy and monetary system. China's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Consumption & Investment Compared to other Developed Economies","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-24-china-cons-inv.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16844,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/18\/china-threatened-by-loss-of-us-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":16180,"position":1},"title":"China threatened by loss of US trade","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The threat of a US-China trade war has rattled investors, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking primary support at 2700 to signal another decline. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Long-term target is the 2012 to 2014 lows at 2000. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18403,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/13\/no-us-china-trade-deal\/","url_meta":{"origin":16180,"position":2},"title":"No US-China trade deal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"On Monday, US President Trump told reporters that he would impose tariffs on an additional USD 300 billion of Chinese goods if Xi Jinping doesn\u2019t meet with him in Japan.\" ~ Trivium China, June 12, 2019 Trump is doing his best to kill any chance of a trade deal. He\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16155,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/09\/trade-wars-playing-hardball-with-china\/","url_meta":{"origin":16180,"position":3},"title":"Trade Wars: Playing hardball with China","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Remember North Korea and the imminent nuclear war? With leaders trading insults on Twitter and bragging: \"My nuclear button is bigger than yours.\" It may resemble a WWF arena more than international diplomacy but that is how Donald Trump conducts foreign affairs. The current Twitter war over trade tariffs is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62692,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/13\/china-bets-on-another-taco\/","url_meta":{"origin":16180,"position":4},"title":"China bets on another TACO","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"It looks like President Trump is already backing off from his earlier threats against China. After announcing the 100% tariffs on Friday, Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday: \"Don\u2019t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment,\" he posted on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23236,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/12\/14\/biden-china-different-approach-same-objectives\/","url_meta":{"origin":16180,"position":5},"title":"Biden &#038; China: Different approach, same objectives","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"China may have cheered the departure of Donald Trump from the world stage but they have more to fear from the incoming administration. Joe Biden's appointment of Katherine Tai as US Trade Representative clearly signals his intent to build a broad coalition to confront China's trade practices. Tai's track record\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16180"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16180\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16182,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16180\/revisions\/16182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}