{"id":16166,"date":"2018-04-16T03:47:39","date_gmt":"2018-04-16T03:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16166"},"modified":"2018-07-28T03:59:02","modified_gmt":"2018-07-28T03:59:02","slug":"east-to-west-headed-for-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/east-to-west-headed-for-war\/","title":{"rendered":"East to West: Headed for war?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Followers of international relations can take their pick of wars at present. There is a trade war brewing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which could descend into a currency war with competing devaluations. We have a Russia waging a cyber war on the West, a Cold War in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, a proxy war in Yemen between Saudia Arabia and Iran, a frozen war in Georgia and Ukraine, and a hot war in Syria that threatens to escalate into a major confrontation between Russia and the West. On top of that we have Kim Jong-un trying to break into the big leagues by test-firing ICBMs over Japan. It&#8217;s a tough neighborhood.<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;peace dividend&#8221; that was supposed to follow the collapse of Communism is well and truly over. The next major ideological conflict is upon us. Democracy versus the Dictators. For the West to prevail it will have to engage in a coordinated muscular diplomacy over the next few decades. A good start would be Margaret Thatcher&#8217;s Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (2002):<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/200px-Reagan_et_Thatcher.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the oval office, 1988\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;font-size:80%;\">\nMargaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the oval office, 1988<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;For my part, I favour an approach to statecraft that embraces principles, as long as it is not stifled by them; and I prefer such principles to be accompanied by steel along with good intentions.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;The habit of ubiquitous interventionism, combining pinprick strikes by precision weapons with pious invocations of high principle, would lead us into endless difficulties. Interventions must be limited in number and overwhelming in their impact.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.I should therefore prefer to restrict my guidelines to the following:<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t believe that military interventions, no matter how morally justified, can succeed without clear military goals.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t fall into the trap of imagining that the West can remake societies.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t take public opinion for granted \u2014 but don&#8217;t either underrate the degree to which good people will endure sacrifices for a worthwhile cause.<\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t allow tyrants and aggressors to get away with it<\/p>\n<p>And when you fight \u2014 fight to win.&#8217;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>But the West also needs to clean up its own house and correct many of the abuses to which Capitalism has been subjected over the last few decades. Martin Wolf sums up the challenges in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5f796164-3be1-11e8-b9f9-de94fa33a81e\">US-China rivalry will shape the 21st century<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8216;The threat is the decadence of the west, very much including the US \u2014 the prevalence of rent extraction as a way of economic life, the indifference to the fate of much of its citizenry, the corrupting role of money in politics, the indifference to the truth, and the sacrifice of long-term investment to private and public consumption&#8230;.&#8217;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bold leadership is required. To fight the wars we have to but, more importantly, to resolve conflicts by other means wherever possible. That doesn&#8217;t mean avoiding conflict by retreating from red lines. It means establishing and vigorously enforcing new rules that benefit everyone. No one wins in a war. Whether it is a trade war, a cold war or a hot war. Everyone pays a price.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>&#8216;It must be thoroughly understood that war is a necessity, and that the more readily we accept it, the less will be the ardor of our opponents&#8230;.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Thucydides (circa 400 BC)\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Followers of international relations can take their pick of wars at present. There is a trade war brewing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which could descend into a currency war with competing devaluations. We have a Russia waging a cyber war on the West, a Cold War in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/east-to-west-headed-for-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;East to West: Headed for war?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,26,57,29,33,34],"tags":[3234,3414],"class_list":["post-16166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-russia-former-ussr","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-statecraft-strategies-for-a-changing-world","tag-thucydides"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>East to West: Headed for war? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"East to West: Headed for war? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Followers of international relations can take their pick of wars at present. There is a trade war brewing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which could descend into a currency war with competing devaluations. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4cK","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12866,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/20\/a-new-cold-war-russias-confrontation-with-the-west\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":0},"title":"A New Cold War? Russia\u2019s Confrontation with the West","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/0KOJg21OloA Michael A. McFaul, Stanford University professor of political science; director and senior fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Stanford University, former ambassador to Russia (2012 - 2014). Colin's Comment: Here is what I see as the big picture: The current\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/0KOJg21OloA\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":33178,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/20\/funding-both-sides-of-the-war-thomas-l-friedman\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":1},"title":"Funding both sides of the war | Thomas L Friedman","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 20, 2022","format":"quote","excerpt":"Our continued addiction to fossil fuels is bolstering Vladimir Putin\u2019s petrodictatorship and creating a situation where we in the West are -- yes, say it with me now -- funding both sides of the war. We fund our military aid to Ukraine with our tax dollars and some of America\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Quotes&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Quotes","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/quotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11925,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/14\/the-long-war-podcast\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":2},"title":"The Long War [podcast]","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent insight into the long-term implications of conflict between Russia and the West. Hosted by Brian Whitmore (RFE\/Power Vertical) and co-host Mark Galeotti, New York University professor and expert on Russia's security services, with guest James Sherr, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program. Podcast: The Long\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;The Big Picture&quot;","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31219,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/26\/war-in-europe-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":3},"title":"War in Europe","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 26, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"If the West thought that the conflict would remain safely contained in Ukraine, they had better think again. There has long been signs that Putin's ambitions cover more than just Ukraine. Sweden & Finland Norway Undersea fiber-optic cables to Svalbard Island were cut in two places. The Black Sea &\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Twitter: Finland","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-25-finland.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-25-finland.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-25-finland.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12448,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/putins-crimean-gamble-russia-ukraine-and-the-new-cold-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":4},"title":"Putin\u2019s Crimean gamble: Russia, Ukraine, and the new Cold War","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 From the Brookings Institute: Since the time of Catherine the Great, Crimea has been a global tinderbox. Most recently, the world was stunned when the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded and seized Crimea in March 2014. In the months since, Putin\u2019s actions in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31193,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/25\/putin-declares-war-on-europe\/","url_meta":{"origin":16166,"position":5},"title":"Putin declares war on Europe","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is an effective declaration of war against Europe. This will no more stop at Kyiv than Hitler stopped at the Sudetenland. Tragic sites of refugees fleeing Russian bombing and helicopter-borne invasion forces occupying Hostomel Airport military airfield, 15 minutes outside the capital. All of this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia &amp; Former USSR&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia &amp; Former USSR","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/russia-former-ussr\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Twitter","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-25-olga3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16166"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16166\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16198,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16166\/revisions\/16198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}