{"id":16158,"date":"2018-04-16T03:30:53","date_gmt":"2018-04-16T03:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16158"},"modified":"2019-06-11T00:49:04","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T00:49:04","slug":"investing-in-a-volatile-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Investing in a Volatile Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 again respected primary support at 2550. Twiggs Volatility Index is retreating but a trough that forms above 1.0% would warn that market risk remains elevated.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

I explained recently to my clients that the odds are at least 2 to 1 that the S&P 500 will recover and go on to make new highs later in the year.<\/p>\n

But there is still a significant risk (one-third to one quarter) that tensions will continue to escalate and the S&P 500 breaks primary support to commence a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

If you are risk-averse, as my clients tend to be, it makes sense to adjust your portfolio allocation to cope with either scenario. What I call “having one foot each side of the fence” or “having a bet each way” in racing parlance.<\/p>\n

\"Typical<\/p>\n

Gen Stocks<\/i> are what I call “generational stocks” such as Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), etc. ASX Income are stocks that yield strong dividends and franking credits.<\/p>\n

If you have 50% of your investment portfolio in cash and short-to-medium-term interest-bearing securities (I collectively refer to this as “cash investments”) and 50% in equities, you are well-positioned to take advantage of either scenario.<\/p>\n

If the market does fall \u2014 the less-likely scenario \u2014 you are well-positioned to convert some of your cash investments to take advantage of lower prices when the dust has settled after the crash. If the market rises, as expected, then you have enough exposure to benefit from the continued bull market. In that case, your only downside is the difference in yields between cash and equities.<\/p>\n

Bear in mind that:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. This only addresses clients’ equity portfolios and does not take account of their other assets;<\/li>\n
  2. The allocation is generic and does not take account of your personal circumstances; and<\/li>\n
  3. The allocation is addressed at Australian investors.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Although the equity allocation is split equally between Australian and International (mainly US) stocks this does not infer that I rate them as equal market risk. Australian equities includes an allocation to Cyclicals which, in the present situation, could best be described as “counter-cyclical” as this largely consists of gold stocks which tend to rise as the market falls. My “Trump Insurance as I called it in an earlier newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    J.P. Morgan once had a friend who was so worried about his stock holdings that he could not sleep at night. The friend asked, “What should I do about my stocks?” Morgan replied, “Sell down to your sleeping point.”<\/p>\n

    ~ Burton Malkiel<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The S&P 500 again respected primary support at 2550. Twiggs Volatility Index is retreating but a trough that forms above 1.0% would warn that market risk remains elevated. I explained recently to my clients that the odds are at least 2 to 1 that the S&P 500 will recover and go on to make new … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “Investing in a Volatile Market”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3780,57],"tags":[237,2241],"class_list":["post-16158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-long-horizon-investing","category-stock-markets","tag-asset-allocation","tag-market-risk"],"yoast_head":"\nInvesting in a Volatile Market - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Investing in a Volatile Market - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&P 500 again respected primary support at 2550. Twiggs Volatility Index is retreating but a trough that forms above 1.0% would warn that market risk remains elevated. I explained recently to my clients that the odds are at least 2 to 1 that the S&P 500 will recover and go on to make new … Continue reading "Investing in a Volatile Market"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Investing in a Volatile Market\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":414,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-04-13-spx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"asset allocation\",\"market risk\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Long-Horizon Investing\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/\",\"name\":\"Investing in a Volatile Market - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-04-13-spx.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-04-13-spx.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/2018-04-13-spx.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/16\\\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Investing in a Volatile Market\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Investing in a Volatile Market - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Investing in a Volatile Market - the patient investor","og_description":"The S&P 500 again respected primary support at 2550. Twiggs Volatility Index is retreating but a trough that forms above 1.0% would warn that market risk remains elevated. I explained recently to my clients that the odds are at least 2 to 1 that the S&P 500 will recover and go on to make new … Continue reading \"Investing in a Volatile Market\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Investing in a Volatile Market","datePublished":"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00","dateModified":"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/"},"wordCount":414,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png","keywords":["asset allocation","market risk"],"articleSection":["Long-Horizon Investing","Stock Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/","name":"Investing in a Volatile Market - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png","datePublished":"2018-04-16T03:30:53+00:00","dateModified":"2019-06-11T00:49:04+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-04-13-spx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/investing-in-a-volatile-market\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Investing in a Volatile Market"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4cC","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":57034,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/28\/the-case-for-an-active-risk-weighted-investment-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":0},"title":"The case for active, risk-weighted investment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 28, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a quiet week. Unless war breaks out in the Middle East or core PCE inflation gives a nasty surprise on Thursday. We have been using the time to review our risk management model and assess the effect of various combinations of indicators on portfolio performance. Starting with a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Active allocation between S&P 500 and the Bank of America AA Corporate Bond index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-27-risk-spx-aa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-27-risk-spx-aa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-27-risk-spx-aa.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-27-risk-spx-aa.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55314,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/05\/risk-management-versus-buy-and-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":1},"title":"Risk Management versus Buy-and-Hold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Further charts to illustrate the effectiveness of managing market risk. The first chart compares performance since 1990 of a buy-and-hold strategy of $100,000 invested in three different assets. The S&P 500 total return (green) end value of $3,085,193 far outstrips Gold (yellow) at $585,226 and BoA AA-rated Corporate Bonds total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Total Return, Gold, and AA-rated Corporate Bonds Total Return","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-05-spxtr-gold-aa-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-05-spxtr-gold-aa-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-05-spxtr-gold-aa-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-05-spxtr-gold-aa-2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/22\/managing-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":2},"title":"Managing Risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Our summary of market risk continues to signal mainly Risk On. 1. Dow Theory An S&P 500 correction is expected to test primary support at 5000, signaled by breach of support at 5500, but the bull-trend remains intact. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is similarly testing support at 475 but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Weekly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-22-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58118,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":3},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is helpful for market timing. It indicates when to change market allocation from Risk-On (e.g. growth stocks) to Risk-Off (e.g. gold or A-grade bonds). Stock Pricing Stock Pricing compares\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58574,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/19\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":4},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is unchanged from last week. The indicator helps with market timing, suggesting when to change market allocation from Risk-On (e.g. growth stocks) to Risk-Off (e.g. gold or A-grade bonds).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17676,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/15\/risk-averse-rather-than-fearful\/","url_meta":{"origin":16158,"position":5},"title":"Risk averse rather than fearful","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is again testing the band of primary support between 2600 and 2550. Follow-through below this level would warn of a bear market. Volatility (21-day) is in the amber zone between 1% and 2%. A real test of market resilience will be the next sizable rally or advance.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16158"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18376,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16158\/revisions\/18376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}