{"id":16145,"date":"2018-03-10T05:18:13","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T05:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16145"},"modified":"2018-03-10T05:18:13","modified_gmt":"2018-03-10T05:18:13","slug":"headwinds-have-turned-into-tailwinds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/03\/10\/headwinds-have-turned-into-tailwinds\/","title":{"rendered":"“Headwinds have turned into tailwinds”"},"content":{"rendered":"

“While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds. Fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory.”
\n~ New Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his first testimony before Congress<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Two very important sentences for investors. Expect further rate hikes but at a moderate pace.<\/p>\n

Bond yields have climbed in anticipation of higher inflation. Breakout above 3.0 percent would warn of a bond bear market, after the bull market of the last 3 decades, with rising yields.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The five-year breakeven rate (Treasury yield minus the equivalent yield on inflation indexed TIPS) has been climbing since 2016.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

But core CPI (CPI less Food & Energy) remains subdued.<\/p>\n

And average hourly wage rates, reflecting underlying inflationary pressures, continue to grow at a modest 2.5 percent a year.<\/p>\n

\"Private<\/p>\n

Real GDP is likely to maintain its similarly modest growth.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

While the Fed is sitting on a powder keg of more than $2 trillion of commercial bank excess reserves, no one is playing with matches. Yet.<\/p>\n

\"Federal<\/p>\n

Those excess reserves on deposit at the Fed have the potential to fuel a massive bubble in stocks or real estate. But investors remain wary after their experience in 2008.<\/p>\n

\n

We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it — and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again — and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.\n<\/p>\n

\n~ Samuel Clemens\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds. Fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory.” ~ New Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his first testimony before Congress Two very important sentences … <\/p>\n

Continue reading ““Headwinds have turned into tailwinds””<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"\n"Headwinds have turned into tailwinds" - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Headwinds have turned into tailwinds" - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"“While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4cp","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24293,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/27\/the-bond-market-revolt-and-its-likely-outcome\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":0},"title":"The bond market revolt","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 27, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The rise in Treasury yields accelerated over the past week, with 10-year Treasuries closing at 1.54% on Thursday and 10-year TIPS at -0.60. A sharp fall in daily new COVID-19 cases has fueled optimism about a rapid re-opening of the US economy. As well as fears of higher inflation. What\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/25\/gold-and-the-yield-curve\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":1},"title":"Gold and the yield curve","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Fears of inflation have been driving up Treasury yields. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to hose down inflation fears: While price increases might accelerate in coming months, Powell said those increases are expected to be temporary and not a sign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/bond-markets-wont-have-a-bar-of-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":2},"title":"Bond markets won’t have a bar of it","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Jay Powell may be whispering sweet nothings in the bond market's ear but they won't have a bar of it. 10-Year Treasury yields have jumped to 1.73% on Friday. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds jumped overnight despite the Federal Reserve\u2019s assertion Wednesday that an interest rate hike is not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17081,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/09\/22\/how-will-a-bond-bear-market-affect-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":3},"title":"How will a bond bear market affect stocks?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke out of their triangular consolidation at 3.00%, while the Trend Index recovered above zero signaling a fresh advance. Importance of resistance at 3.00% is best illustrated on a long-term monthly chart. Yields declined for more than three decades (since 1981) in a bond bull market but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38089,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/13\/bond-market-meet-minsky\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":4},"title":"Bond market, meet Minsky","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The minutes of the last FOMC meeting effectively balance the needs of fighting inflation and preserving the economy. What they don't address is protecting financial stability. ~ Mohamed El-Erian The MOVE index of Treasury market volatility has climbed to 160.72. According to Harley Bassman, who created the index, levels above\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core PCE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-13--cpi-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24526,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/12\/treasury-yields-face-tga-slr-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16145,"position":5},"title":"Treasury yields face TGA\/SLR headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields eased slightly, to 1.53% on Thursday, with the real yield widening to -0.75% (1.53 - 2.28). February consumer price index came in at 1.68% increase over the past 12 months. Not as high as the 2.28% breakeven inflation rate but tracking upwards. Treasury General Account (TGA) Janet\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16145"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16145\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16147,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16145\/revisions\/16147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}