{"id":16095,"date":"2018-02-04T23:21:22","date_gmt":"2018-02-04T23:21:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16095"},"modified":"2018-02-05T04:59:49","modified_gmt":"2018-02-05T04:59:49","slug":"black-monday-october-1987","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/","title":{"rendered":"Black Monday, October 1987"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Cross-posted from <a href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2018\/01\/29\/black-monday-october-1987\/\">Goldstocksforex.com<\/a>:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or cause.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sniper.at\/stock-market-crash-of-1987.htm#STUIR\">Sniper<\/a> points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"3 Month Treasury Bill Rates\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based on the highest earnings to-date) near 20, close to its Black Friday high from the crash of 1929.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 PEmax 1919 - 1989\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/spx-pemax-to1987.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Often overlooked is the fact that the S&amp;P 500 was testing resistance at its previous highs between 700 and 750 from the 1960s and 70s (chart from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/2324\/sp-500-historical-chart-data\">macrotrends<\/a>). <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 1960 - 1990\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/spx-macrotrends.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A combination of these three factors may have been sufficient to tip the market into a dramatic reversal.<\/p>\n<p>Are we facing a similar threat today?<\/p>\n<p>Short-term rates are rising but at 40 basis points over the last 4 months, compared to 170 bp in 1987, there is not much cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"13-week T-Bill rates\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-01-29-irx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>PEmax, however, is now at a precipitous 26.8, second only to the Dotcom bubble of 1999\/2000 and way above its October 1987 reading.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 PEmax 1980 - 2017\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/spx-pemax-2017.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>While the index is in blue sky territory, with no resistance in sight, there is an important psychological barrier ahead at 3000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/2018-01-24-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong>: This does not look like a repetition of 1987. But investors who ignore the extreme valuation warning may be surprised at how fast the market can reverse (as in 1987) from such extremes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cross-posted from Goldstocksforex.com: What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or cause. Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash. Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based on the highest earnings to-date) &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Black Monday, October 1987&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,57,34],"tags":[3770,3771,1090,3766,3010,3121],"class_list":["post-16095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-dividends","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-black-friday","tag-black-monday","tag-dotcom-bubble","tag-pemax","tag-sp-500","tag-short-term-interest-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cross-posted from Goldstocksforex.com: What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or cause. Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash. Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based on the highest earnings to-date) &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Black Monday, October 1987&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Black Monday, October 1987\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":216,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/sniper-3m-tbills.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Black Friday\",\"Black Monday\",\"Dotcom bubble\",\"PEMAX\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"short-term interest rates\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Earnings &amp; Dividends\",\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/\",\"name\":\"Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/sniper-3m-tbills.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/sniper-3m-tbills.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2018\\\/sniper-3m-tbills.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/04\\\/black-monday-october-1987\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Black Monday, October 1987\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor","og_description":"Cross-posted from Goldstocksforex.com: What caused the Black Monday crash of 1987? Analysts are often unable to identify a single trigger or cause. Sniper points to a sharp run-up in short-term interest rates in the 3 months prior to the crash. Valuations were also at extreme readings, with PEmax (price-earnings based on the highest earnings to-date) &hellip; Continue reading \"Black Monday, October 1987\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00","article_modified_time":"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Black Monday, October 1987","datePublished":"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00","dateModified":"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/"},"wordCount":216,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png","keywords":["Black Friday","Black Monday","Dotcom bubble","PEMAX","S&amp;P 500","short-term interest rates"],"articleSection":["Earnings &amp; Dividends","Stock Markets","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/","name":"Black Monday, October 1987 - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png","datePublished":"2018-02-04T23:21:22+00:00","dateModified":"2018-02-05T04:59:49+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/sniper-3m-tbills.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/04\/black-monday-october-1987\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Black Monday, October 1987"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4bB","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19967,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/13\/black-monday-all-over-again\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":0},"title":"Black Monday all over again","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 13, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We don't seem to learn. The stock market has gone over a cliff. The speed of the falls is reminiscent of the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day. Those figures will never be exceeded because of recommendations that came out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16054,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/17\/pemax-second-highest-peak-in-last-100-years\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":1},"title":"PEMAX second highest peak in 100 years","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 17, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"I published a chart of PEMAX for the last 30 years on Saturday. PEMAX eliminates the distortion caused by cyclical earnings fluctuations, using the highest earnings to-date rather than current earnings. The idea being that cyclical declines in earnings reflect a fall in capacity utilization rather than a long-term drop\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":23779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/21\/sp-500-bubble-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 bubble risk","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P 500 valuations are higher than the 1929 (Black Friday) Wall Street crash and the October 1987 (Black Monday) crash. The Dotcom bubble is the only time in the last 120 years that the ratio between Price and highest trailing earnings (PEmax) was higher. PEmax eliminates distortions in the price\/earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21187,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/07\/sp-500-pemax-at-24\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 PEmax at 24","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is way over-priced based on all three earnings multiples. 75% of companies in the S&P 500 have already reported earnings, so we have a good idea as to what overall earnings will be for the second quarter. Based on the latest index price of 3349.16, trailing PE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16299,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/23\/price-earnings-the-race-to-the-top\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":4},"title":"Price &#038; Earnings: The Race to the Top","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Now that 93% of S&P 500 stocks have reported first quarter earnings we can look at price-earnings valuation with a fair degree of confidence. My favorite is what I call PEMax, which compares Price to Maximum Annual Earnings for current and past years. This removes distortions caused by periods when\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17741,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/15\/pemax-why-you-should-be-cautious-using-robert-shillers-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":16095,"position":5},"title":"PEmax and why you should be wary of Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's groundbreaking works, Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits, led to a Nobel prize in 2013 but we need to be careful of placing too much reliance on his CAPE as an indicator of stock market value. What is CAPE? CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, normally applied to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16095"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16099,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16095\/revisions\/16099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}