{"id":16064,"date":"2018-01-13T02:51:25","date_gmt":"2018-01-13T02:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16064"},"modified":"2019-06-12T02:01:35","modified_gmt":"2019-06-12T02:01:35","slug":"outlook-for-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/13\/outlook-for-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

At this time of year we are usually inundated with projections for the year ahead, from predictions of imminent collapse to expectations of a record year.<\/p>\n

We live in a world of uncertainty, where both extremes are possible, but neither is likely.<\/p>\n

We are clearly in stage 3 (the final stage) of a bull market. Risk premiums are close to record lows. The yield spread between lowest investment-grade (Baa) bonds and equivalent risk-free Treasuries has crossed to below 2.0 percent, levels last seen prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. The VIX is also close to its record low, suggesting high levels of investor confidence.<\/p>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

Money supply continues to grow at close to 5.0 percent, reflecting an accommodative stance from the Fed. MZM, or Zero Maturity Money, is basically M1 plus travelers checks and money market funds.<\/p>\n

\"Zero-Maturity<\/p>\n

Inflationary forces remain subdued, with average hourly wage rates growing at below 2.5 percent per year. A rise above 3.0 percent, which would pressure the Fed to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy, does not appear imminent.<\/p>\n

\"Average<\/p>\n

Tax relief and higher commodity prices are likely to exert upward pressure on inflation in the year ahead. But the Fed’s stated intention of shrinking its balance sheet, with a reduction of $100 billion in the first 12 months<\/a>, is likely to have an opposite, contractionary effect.<\/p>\n

The Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed gave a bit of a scare, dipping below 1.0 percent towards the end of last year<\/a>. But data has since been revised and the index now reflects a far healthier outlook.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

A flattening yield curve has also been mooted as a potential threat, with a negative yield curve preceding every recession over the last 50 years.<\/p>\n

\"Yield<\/p>\n

A yield differential, between 10-year and either 2-year or 3-month Treasuries, below zero would warn of a recession. When long-term yields fall below short-term yields financial markets stop working efficiently and bank lending tends to contract. Banks, who generally borrow at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, find their margins are squeezed and become strongly risk-averse. Contracting lending slows the economy and normally leads to recession.<\/p>\n

But we are some way from there. If we take the last cycle as an example, the yield curve started flattening in 2005 (when yield differentials fell below 1 percent) but a recession only occurred in 2008. The market could continue to thrive for several years before the impact of a negative yield curve is felt. To exit now would seem premature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At this time of year we are usually inundated with projections for the year ahead, from predictions of imminent collapse to expectations of a record year. We live in a world of uncertainty, where both extremes are possible, but neither is likely. We are clearly in stage 3 (the final stage) of a bull market. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Outlook for 2018”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,29],"tags":[64,3768,824,3769,1828,2076,2356,3764,3767],"class_list":["post-16064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","tag-vix","tag-average-hourly-wage-rates","tag-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-fed-balance-sheet-normalization","tag-inflation","tag-leading-index","tag-money-supply","tag-mzm","tag-yiel-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nOutlook for 2018 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Outlook for 2018 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At this time of year we are usually inundated with projections for the year ahead, from predictions of imminent collapse to expectations of a record year. 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A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads -- lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield -- and VIX below 15 both reflect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/vix-hits-record-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":16064,"position":1},"title":"VIX hits record low","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) made a new low of 9.30 indicating record low levels of stock volatility. High levels of stock buybacks and large ETF fund inflows may both have contributed, but this is only the third time in its 27-year history that index has broken below 10%. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7761,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/20\/vix-low-sp-500-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":16064,"position":2},"title":"VIX low S&P 500 high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The VIX CBOE Volatility Index is below 15%, indicating investor confidence. But the risk premium on Baa-grade bonds (Moody's lowest investment grade, compared to the 10-year Treasury yield) remains elevated. Corporate bond investors are still wary. 10-Year Treasury yields are headed for a test of resistance at 2.00%\/2.10%. There is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9966,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/06\/03\/sp-500-bullish-nasdaq-tests-resistance\/","url_meta":{"origin":16064,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500 bullish, Nasdaq tests resistance","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"After early skittishness over some dud Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, the S&P 500 recovered lost ground by the close. Expect an advance to 1950*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13748,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/18\/october-sell-off-drawing-to-a-close-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":16064,"position":4},"title":"October sell-off: Drawing to a close?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"DAX and FTSE find support, but remain in a down-trend China is bullish, but Japan bearish US stocks find support and continue to indicate a bull market ASX respects primary support The S&P 500 found support at 1820 and is testing resistance at 1900. Breach of resistance would suggest that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11142,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/17\/october-sell-off-drawing-to-a-close\/","url_meta":{"origin":16064,"position":5},"title":"October sell-off: Drawing to a close?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"DAX and FTSE find support, but remain in a down-trend China is bullish, but Japan bearish US stocks find support and continue to indicate a bull market ASX respects primary support The S&P 500 found support at 1820 and is testing resistance at 1900. Breach of resistance would suggest that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-18-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16064"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16064\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18395,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16064\/revisions\/18395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}