{"id":16036,"date":"2017-11-19T23:29:31","date_gmt":"2017-11-19T23:29:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16036"},"modified":"2017-11-19T23:29:31","modified_gmt":"2017-11-19T23:29:31","slug":"leading-index-gives-early-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/11\/19\/leading-index-gives-early-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"Leading Index gives early warning"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the better composite indicators in the US, the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed, points to a slow-down in the US economy. A dip below 1.0% is often early, as in July 2000 and May 2006, but serves as a reliable warning of an economic slow-down.<\/p>\n

\"Leading<\/p>\n

The Leading Index predicts the six-month growth rate of the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Index. In addition to the Coincident Index, it includes variables that lead the economy: housing permits (1 to 4 units), initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the ISM manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.<\/p>\n

The Coincident Index combines four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Coincident<\/p>\n

The Leading Index signal does seem early. Low corporate bond spreads and VIX near record lows continue to indicate low market risk, typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

Monetary policy remains accomodative, with money stock growing at close to 5% p.a. (MZM = cash in circulation, travelers checks, money market funds and deposits with zero maturity).<\/p>\n

\"MZM<\/p>\n

The yield curve has flattened, with the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries falling to 1.0% on the above graph. That is what one would expect when the Fed hikes interest rates in a low inflation environment: short-term rates will rise faster than long-term rates. But a negative yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, is a reliable predictor of recessions in the US economy. Each time the yield differential on the above graph crossed below zero in the last 50 years, a recession has followed within 12 months.<\/p>\n

Underlying inflation remains low, with average hourly earnings growth below 2.5% p.a., and the Fed should be careful about single-mindedly raising interest rates without considering the yield curve.<\/p>\n

\"Annual<\/p>\n

The bull market continues but investors need to keep a weather eye on interest rates and the yield curve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the better composite indicators in the US, the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed, points to a slow-down in the US economy. A dip below 1.0% is often early, as in July 2000 and May 2006, but serves as a reliable warning of an economic slow-down. The Leading Index predicts the six-month growth … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Leading Index gives early warning”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,34],"tags":[64,3765,824,2658,3725,3726],"class_list":["post-16036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-vix","tag-coincident-index","tag-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-philadelphia-fed-leading-index","tag-yield-curve","tag-yield-differential"],"yoast_head":"\nLeading Index gives early warning - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leading Index gives early warning - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One of the better composite indicators in the US, the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed, points to a slow-down in the US economy. 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We modified one of our five component market risk indicators to reduce whipsaws. Instead of the Fed Funds Rate confirmed by ISM Services Business Activity, we have created a composite indicator comprising: the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5833,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/24\/philadelphia-fed-september-up-turn-in-state-coincident-indicators\/","url_meta":{"origin":16036,"position":1},"title":"Philadelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"September readings for the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators are now out. The 3-Month Index has turned to follow the Monthly Index upward. Reversal of the Monthly Index below 80, however, would be cause for concern. When we look at the index over the last 30 years, down-turns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5590,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/26\/philadelphia-fed-worrying-drop-in-state-coincident-indicators\/","url_meta":{"origin":16036,"position":2},"title":"Philadelphia Fed: Worrying drop in state coincident indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 26, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom Porcelli, economist at RBC Capital, points out a worrying drop in the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators. The Monthly Index has turned up but the 3-Month Index continues downward. Reversal of the Monthly Index in the next few months would be cause for concern. When we look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":16036,"position":3},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15049,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/25\/more-evidence-of-a-bull-market-except-in-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":16036,"position":4},"title":"More evidence of a bull market, except in Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"One of my favorite indicators of financial market stress is Corporate bond spreads. The premium charged on the lowest level of investment-grade corporate bonds, over the equivalent 10-year Treasury yield, is a great measure of the level of financial market stress. Levels below 2 percent \u2014 not seen since 2004\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48870,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/22\/conference-board-leading-index-no-longer-signals-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":16036,"position":5},"title":"Conference Board | Leading Index no longer signals recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index\u00ae (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January to 102.7 (2016=100).... LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the latest six-months and 7.1 percent over 12 months. \"The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Conference Board Leading Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16036"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16037,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16036\/revisions\/16037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}