{"id":16007,"date":"2017-10-09T02:47:10","date_gmt":"2017-10-09T02:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16007"},"modified":"2017-10-09T06:09:03","modified_gmt":"2017-10-09T06:09:03","slug":"how-long-will-the-bull-market-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/","title":{"rendered":"How long will the bull market last?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Freight Transport Index\" alt=\"Freight Transport Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-freight.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Low corporate bond spreads &#8212; lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield &#8212; and VIX below 15 both reflect bull market conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Bond Spreads\" alt=\"Bond Spreads\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-bondspreads.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Real GDP is growing around a modest 2 percent a year. Low figures are likely to continue, with annual change in hours worked (total payroll * average weekly hours) falling to 1.2 percent in September. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Real GDP\" alt=\"Real GDP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-realgdp.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Money supply (M1) growth recovered to a balmy 7 percent (p.a.) after a worrying dip below 5 in early 2016.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"M1 Money Stock\" alt=\"M1 Money Stock\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-m1.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed may be reluctant to tighten monetary conditions but will be forced to act if inflation starts to accelerate. Annual growth in hourly wage rates turned above 2.5 percent in September, signaling underlying inflationary pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate - Annual Growth\" alt=\"Average Hourly Wage Rate - Annual Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-hourlyrates.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Another dip in M1 below 5 percent growth would warn that monetary conditions are tightening. From there, it normally takes 12 months to impact on the broad market indices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"M1 Money Stock and Fed Funds Rate\" alt=\"M1 Money Stock and Fed Funds Rate\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-m1-ffr.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>At this stage it looks like another 2 years of sunshine before the storm. But one false tweet and we could face an early winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads &#8212; lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield &#8212; and VIX below 15 both reflect bull market conditions. Real GDP &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How long will the bull market last?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,13,34],"tags":[64,824,1472,1722,1828,3762,2870],"class_list":["post-16007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-vix","tag-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-freight-transportation-services-index","tag-hourly-wage-rates","tag-inflation","tag-m1-money-supply","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How long will the bull market last? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How long will the bull market last? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US markets are clearly in a bull phase, with the Dow, S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq making strong gains. A rising Freight Transport Index highlights the broad up-turn in economic activity. Low corporate bond spreads &#8212; lowest investment grade (Baa) minus 10-year Treasury yield &#8212; and VIX below 15 both reflect bull market conditions. Real GDP &hellip; Continue reading &quot;How long will the bull market last?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/09\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-10-09T02:47:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-10-09T06:09:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-09-freight.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"How long will the bull market last?\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-10-09T02:47:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-10-09T06:09:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":195,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2017\\\/2017-10-09-freight.png\",\"keywords\":[\"$VIX\",\"corporate bond spreads\",\"Freight Transportation Services Index\",\"hourly wage rates\",\"Inflation\",\"M1 Money Supply\",\"Real GDP\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"GDP and Activity\",\"Inflation\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/\",\"name\":\"How long will the bull market last? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2017\\\/2017-10-09-freight.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-10-09T02:47:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-10-09T06:09:03+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2017\\\/2017-10-09-freight.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2017\\\/2017-10-09-freight.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2017\\\/10\\\/09\\\/how-long-will-the-bull-market-last\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How long will the bull market last?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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We live in a world of uncertainty, where both extremes are possible, but neither is likely. We are clearly in stage 3 (the final\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":44972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/27\/rising-long-term-rates-could-spoil-the-party\/","url_meta":{"origin":16007,"position":1},"title":"Rising long-term rates could spoil the party","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Real GDP for the September quarter reflects an annual growth rate of 2.9% for the US, well below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 5.4%. Growth in weekly hours worked declined to 1.5% for the 12 months ended September, indicating that GDP is likely to slow further in the fourth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP & Estimated Total Weekly Hours","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-26-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-26-realgdp-hours.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-26-realgdp-hours.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/11\/19\/leading-index-gives-early-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":16007,"position":2},"title":"Leading Index gives early warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"One of the better composite indicators in the US, the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed, points to a slow-down in the US economy. A dip below 1.0% is often early, as in July 2000 and May 2006, but serves as a reliable warning of an economic slow-down. The Leading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15049,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/25\/more-evidence-of-a-bull-market-except-in-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":16007,"position":3},"title":"More evidence of a bull market, except in Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"One of my favorite indicators of financial market stress is Corporate bond spreads. The premium charged on the lowest level of investment-grade corporate bonds, over the equivalent 10-year Treasury yield, is a great measure of the level of financial market stress. Levels below 2 percent \u2014 not seen since 2004\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/vix-hits-record-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":16007,"position":4},"title":"VIX hits record low","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) made a new low of 9.30 indicating record low levels of stock volatility. High levels of stock buybacks and large ETF fund inflows may both have contributed, but this is only the third time in its 27-year history that index has broken below 10%. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38974,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/22\/australias-debt-end-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":16007,"position":5},"title":"Australia&#8217;s debt end game","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We are nearing the end of a thirty year bull market in credit, during which time the overnight cash rate in Australia fell from 18% in 1989 to 0.03% in 2021. Low interest rates enabled households to borrow more relative to their income, with housing debt expanding 4.5 times, over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16007"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16016,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16007\/revisions\/16016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}