{"id":16000,"date":"2017-10-06T06:25:16","date_gmt":"2017-10-06T06:25:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=16000"},"modified":"2017-10-06T06:25:16","modified_gmt":"2017-10-06T06:25:16","slug":"australian-banks-under-selling-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/06\/australian-banks-under-selling-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian banks under selling pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 300 Banks index are a major drag on the broad market index. Having respected resistance at 8500, a test of primary support at 8000 is likely. Twiggs Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"ASX 300 Banks\" alt=\"ASX 300 Banks\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-06-xbak.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Return on equity is falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Australian Banks Return on Equity\" alt=\"Australian Banks Return on Equity\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-06-aus-bankroe.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A combination of narrow interest margins.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Bank Net Interest Margins\" alt=\"Bank Net Interest Margins\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-06-aus-bankmargins.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Soaring household debt.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Bank Net Interest Margins\" alt=\"Bank Net Interest Margins\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-06-aus-hhdebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And rising capital requirements as APRA desperately tries to protect their <em>glass jaw<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Bank Capital Ratios\" alt=\"Bank Capital Ratios\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-10-06-aus-bankcapital.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Don&#8217;t let the ratios fool you. They are based on <em>risk-weighted assets<\/em>. Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) leverage ratio for at least one of the majors is as low as 4.0 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 300 Banks index are a major drag on the broad market index. Having respected resistance at 8500, a test of primary support at 8000 is likely. Twiggs Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Return on equity is falling. A combination of narrow interest margins. Soaring household debt. And rising &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/06\/australian-banks-under-selling-pressure\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australian banks under selling pressure&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,57],"tags":[260,590,633,3760,1726,2089,2439],"class_list":["post-16000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-stock-markets","tag-asx-300-banks","tag-capital-ratios","tag-cet1","tag-common-equity-tier-1","tag-household-debt","tag-leverage","tag-net-interest-margins"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian banks under selling pressure - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian banks under selling pressure - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 300 Banks index are a major drag on the broad market index. Having respected resistance at 8500, a test of primary support at 8000 is likely. Twiggs Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Return on equity is falling. A combination of narrow interest margins. Soaring household debt. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-4a4","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19379,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/14\/australia-major-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":0},"title":"Australia: Major banks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Our review of APRA's June 2019 quarterly report on the four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- concludes that they are collectively priced at a 16.5% premium over fair value. Technically, the ASX 300 Banks Index ($XBAK) is experiencing secondary selling pressure and a correction is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17128,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/asx-200-miners-rally-but-banks-a-worry\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200: Miners rally but banks a worry","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 found support at 6120\/6150, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Follow-through above 6250 would suggest another advance. Breach is now unlikely but would warn of a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000. A rally on resources stocks helped support the overall index. Expect the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20487,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/asx-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":2},"title":"ASX headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 index is testing resistance at 5500 but Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would indicate another test of 4500. Breakout above 5500 is unlikely, and would signal further gains, but we do not foresee a V-shaped recovery. The RBA's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15127,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/07\/asx-200-faces-bank-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 faces bank headwinds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks Index continues to test support at 9000. Declining Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and reversal below 8900 would warn of a correction. The ASX 200 continues its advance towards 6000, with rising Twiggs Money Flow signaling buying pressure. But it is vulnerable to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14824,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/17\/asx-banks-lead-the-charge\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":4},"title":"ASX banks lead the charge","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 17, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 followed-through above 5750 after respecting its new support level at 5600, indicating an advance to 6000*. Rising Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. * Target medium-term: 5800 + ( 5800 - 5600 ) = 6000 Australian banks are leading the charge, with the ASX 300 Banks Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18186,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/10\/asx-200-and-the-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":16000,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 and the Banks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 retreat below support level at 6350 has been gentle, with a long tail indicating that buying support remains. The Trend Index likewise shows only a moderate decline. Respect of support at 6000 would be a bullish sign. Financials are the largest sector, comprising 32.1% of the ASX\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16000"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16001,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16000\/revisions\/16001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}