{"id":15680,"date":"2017-08-06T22:33:51","date_gmt":"2017-08-07T02:33:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15680"},"modified":"2017-08-06T22:33:51","modified_gmt":"2017-08-07T02:33:51","slug":"this-oil-price-rally-has-reached-its-limit-on-line-opinion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/06\/this-oil-price-rally-has-reached-its-limit-on-line-opinion\/","title":{"rendered":"This oil price rally has reached its limit – On Line Opinion"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good summary of the oil market by Nicholas Cunningham – posted Friday, 4 August 2017:<\/p>\n

There are several significant reasons why oil prices have regained most of the lost ground since the end of May….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    \n
  1. OPEC cuts;<\/li>\n
  2. US shale expansion is slowing;<\/li>\n
  3. Several OPEC members have promised deeper cuts; and<\/li>\n
  4. Drawdowns in U.S. crude oil inventories suggest the market is finally rebalancing.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    But inventories are still high, not just in the U.S. And the US (despite shale slowing), Libya and Nigeria are all expected to increase output.<\/p>\n

    Also, the recent rally is largely attributable to short-covering rather than hedge funds taking fresh long positions.<\/p>\n

    But there is a wild card:<\/p>\n

    The one variable that could upend all market forecasts is Venezuela, which has been in economic turmoil for quite some time but is entering a new phase of crisis. The involvement of the U.S. government, which is retaliating against Venezuela for what it argues is a step towards dictatorship, threatens to accelerate the oil production declines in the South American nation.<\/p>\n

    If Venezuela sees its exports disrupted in a sudden way, the ceiling for oil prices in 2017 could be quite a bit higher than everyone expects at the moment. Otherwise, there is not a lot of room on the upside for oil prices in the short-term.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    …it could go up, it could go down, but not necessarily in that order.<\/p>\n

    Using fundamentals to predict short-term cycles is at best a 50\/50 proposition. It’s normally best to stick to technicals (for short time frames). Looks like a secondary rally in a bear market.<\/p>\n

    \"Nymex<\/p>\n

    Source: This oil price rally has reached its limit – On Line Opinion – 4\/8\/2017<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Good summary of the oil market by Nicholas Cunningham – posted Friday, 4 August 2017: There are several significant reasons why oil prices have regained most of the lost ground since the end of May…. OPEC cuts; US shale expansion is slowing; Several OPEC members have promised deeper cuts; and Drawdowns in U.S. crude oil … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “This oil price rally has reached its limit – On Line Opinion”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nThis oil price rally has reached its limit - On Line Opinion - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This oil price rally has reached its limit - On Line Opinion - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good summary of the oil market by Nicholas Cunningham – posted Friday, 4 August 2017: There are several significant reasons why oil prices have regained most of the lost ground since the end of May…. 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The move follows a decision this month by Saudi Arabia and Russia to do so. The earlier announcement helped\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41553,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/06\/opec-cuts-lift-gold-to-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":15680,"position":2},"title":"OPEC+ cuts lift Gold to $2020","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent Crude rallied to $85 per barrel after OPEC+ announced voluntary production cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day. It appears the cuts were in response to the recent fall to below $73 per barrel resulting from the bank contagion triggered by Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Oil producers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-05-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20285,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/18\/bottom-falls-out-of-crude-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":15680,"position":3},"title":"Bottom falls out of crude market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 18, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Jim Stock writes that end sales of gasoline are down 46% and jet fuel down 52%. Production cuts will have no effect if they are in response to shrinking demand. Estimates of demand destruction range from 20 to 35 Mbpd. Nymex crude broke support at $20 per barrel, falling below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12942,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/09\/where-oil-goes-stocks-will-follow\/","url_meta":{"origin":15680,"position":4},"title":"Where oil goes, stocks will follow","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 9, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Patrick Chovanec, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management: .....so far this year stock market sentiment has taken many of its cues from the price of oil. On any given day, if you knew which way oil prices moved, you probably could tell which way the stock market moved. While\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":50117,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/18\/us-gasoline-prices-consumer-sentiment\/","url_meta":{"origin":15680,"position":5},"title":"US gasoline prices & consumer sentiment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a historic link between US gasoline prices and consumer sentiment. The March University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment is rising, with the 3-month average at 77.5. Roughly mid-way between peaks and troughs over the past sixty years. But real retail sales also dipped below their long-term trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-18-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15680\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}