{"id":15519,"date":"2017-06-30T20:33:06","date_gmt":"2017-07-01T00:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15519"},"modified":"2017-06-30T20:33:06","modified_gmt":"2017-07-01T00:33:06","slug":"investment-the-key-to-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/30\/investment-the-key-to-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Investment the key to growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Elliot Clarke at Westpac recently highlighted the importance of investment in sustaining economic growth:<\/p>\n

The importance of sustained investment in an economy cannot be understated. Done well, investment in real capacity begets greater production volume and employment as well as a productivity dividend. Its absence in recent years is a key factor behind sustained soft wage inflation and the US economy’s inability to consistently grow at an above-trend pace despite the economy being at full-employment and household balance sheets having more than fully recovered post GFC.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The graph below highlights declining US investment in new equipment post GFC.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

source: Westpac<\/p>\n

There are three factors that may influence this:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Accelerated tax depreciation allowances after the GFC encouraged companies to bring forward capital spending in order to stimulate the recovery. But the 2010 to 2012 surge is followed by a later trough when the intended capital expenditure was originally planned to have taken place.<\/li>\n
  2. Low growth in personal consumption, especially of non-durable goods and of services, would discourage further capital investment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"US<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The level of stock buybacks increased as companies sought alternative measures to sustain earnings (per share) growth. The graph below shows debt issuance has soared while net equity issuance remains consistently negative.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"US<\/p>\n

      source: Westpac<\/p>\n

      Net capital formation (the increase in physical assets owned by nonfinancial corporations) declined between 2015 and 2017. While this is partly attributable to the falling oil price curtailing investment in the Energy sector, continuation of the decline would spell long-term trouble for the economy.<\/p>\n

      \"US<\/p>\n

      The cycle becomes self-reinforcing. Low growth in personal consumption leads to low levels of capital investment ….which in turn leads to low employment growth…..leading to further low growth in personal consumption.<\/p>\n

      Major infrastructure investment is needed to break the cycle. In effect you need to “prime the pump” in order to create a new virtuous cycle, with higher investment leading to higher growth.<\/p>\n

      It is obviously important that infrastructure investment target productive assets, that generate income, else taxpayers are left with increased debt and no income to service it. Or assets that can be sold to repay the debt. But the importance of infrastructure investment should be evident to both sides of politics and any attempt to obstruct or delay this would be putting political ahead of national interests.<\/p>\n

      Australia<\/h2>\n

      Australia is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom.<\/p>\n

      \"Australia:<\/p>\n

      source: RBA<\/p>\n

      If we examine the components of business investment, it is not just Engineering that has fallen. Investment in Machinery & Equipment has been declining for the last decade. And now Building Investment is also starting to slow.<\/p>\n

      \"Australia:<\/p>\n

      source: RBA<\/p>\n

      \n

      You’ve got to prime the pump…. You’ve got to put something in before you can get anything out.\n<\/p>\n

      \n~ Zig Ziglar\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Elliot Clarke at Westpac recently highlighted the importance of investment in sustaining economic growth: The importance of sustained investment in an economy cannot be understated. Done well, investment in real capacity begets greater production volume and employment as well as a productivity dividend. Its absence in recent years is a key factor behind sustained soft … <\/p>\n

      Continue reading “Investment the key to growth”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,46,15,34],"tags":[1840,2435,2454,2645,3249],"class_list":["post-15519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-investment-infrastructure","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-infrastructure-investment","tag-net-debt-issuance","tag-new-equity-issuance","tag-personal-consumption","tag-stock-buybacks"],"yoast_head":"\nInvestment the key to growth - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Investment the key to growth - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Elliot Clarke at Westpac recently highlighted the importance of investment in sustaining economic growth: The importance of sustained investment in an economy cannot be understated. 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But promises come first, the costs come later. While I support a broad infrastructure program and the creation of a level playing field in global markets, the actual execution\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment & Infrastructure"","block_context":{"text":"Investment & Infrastructure","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/investment-infrastructure\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9182,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/11\/the-hole-in-us-employment\/","url_meta":{"origin":15519,"position":1},"title":"The hole in US employment","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 11, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US employment is topical after two months of poor jobs figures. Employers added 113,000 new jobs, against an expected 185,000, last month and a low 75,000 in December. Rather than focus on monthly data, let's take a long-term view. The number of full-time employed as a percentage of total population\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13716,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/02\/the-hole-in-us-employment-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":15519,"position":2},"title":"The hole in US employment","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US employment is topical after two months of poor jobs figures. Employers added 113,000 new jobs, against an expected 185,000, last month and a low 75,000 in December. Rather than focus on monthly data, let's take a long-term view. The number of full-time employed as a percentage of total population\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":42439,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/17\/china-recovery-falters\/","url_meta":{"origin":15519,"position":3},"title":"China recovery falters","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China's exports plunged 7.5% year-on-year in May.... https:\/\/youtu.be\/sjegqSfcdWE Westpac tell a similar story: Reversing our perspective and moving a month forward in time to May, China\u2019s trade surplus narrowed to US$65.8bn as exports weakened and imports rose. Exports to the US have declined on a year ago basis every month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Fixed Asset Investment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-15-china-fai_595x571.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22504,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/07\/asx-and-the-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":15519,"position":4},"title":"ASX and the long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6200 but declining Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. There is a lot of \"noise\" in the market at present -- due to COVID-19 easing, government stimulus, RBA rate cuts and political turmoil in the USA -- so we are wary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11933,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/15\/why-fixed-investment-is-critical-to-the-us-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":15519,"position":5},"title":"Why Fixed Investment is Critical to the US Recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 15, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The financial sector normally acts as a conduit, channeling savings from private investors to the corporate sector. When the conduit works effectively, the injection of demand from corporate Investment is sufficient to offset the 'leakage' from demand caused by Savings. Savings patterns alter during a financial crisis, however, with concerned\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment & Infrastructure"","block_context":{"text":"Investment & Infrastructure","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/investment-infrastructure\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth and Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-15-investment-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-15-investment-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-15-investment-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15519\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}