{"id":15506,"date":"2017-06-26T19:31:51","date_gmt":"2017-06-26T23:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15506"},"modified":"2017-06-26T19:31:51","modified_gmt":"2017-06-26T23:31:51","slug":"bob-doll-mid-year-assessment-of-our-ten-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/26\/bob-doll-mid-year-assessment-of-our-ten-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Doll: Mid-Year Assessment of Our Ten Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Interesting review of Bob Doll’s ten predictions for the year. They highlight the hazards of making predictions: you can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons.<\/p>\n

1 \u2753 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly as the dollar strengthens and reaches parity with the euro.
\nFirst quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth was relatively slow at 1.2%, but we think second quarter growth could approach 3%. We are on the wrong side of this second prediction, as the euro has advanced against the dollar.<\/p>\n

2 \u2714 Unemployment drops to its lowest level in 17 years as wages increase at the fastest pace since the Great Recession.
\nThe first half of this prediction came true in May, when unemployment hit 4.3%, lower than the 4.4% reached in May 2007. Wage growth has remained stubbornly slow, but we expect wages will rise.
\n[Unemployment fell as expected but I would rate this a “?” as wage growth impacts on inflation and is an important part of the overall scenario.]<\/p>\n

3 \u2753 Treasury yields move higher for a third consecutive year for the first time in 36 years as the Fed raises rates at least twice.
\nIn June, the Fed raised interest rates for the second time this year. Treasury yields, however, are lower now than at the start of the year.
\n[“X” IMO. A disconnect between long-term and short-term rates, as in 2004-2005, limits the Fed’s ability to control asset bubbles and inflation.]<\/p>\n

4 \u2753 Stocks hit their 2017 highs in the first half of the year as earnings rise but price\/earnings multiples fall.
\nEquity markets hover close to their all-time highs, but the momentum that dominated the first part of the year has faded. Earnings have improved dramatically: S&P 500 earnings were up almost 14% in the first quarter, although multiples have risen.
\n[Stocks rising faster than earnings is typical of a stage III bull market]<\/p>\n

5 \u2753 Stocks outperform bonds for the sixth year in a row for the first time in 20 years while volatility rises.
\nStocks are currently comfortably ahead of bonds. While volatility has actually fallen this year, we expect it to pick up in the coming months.
\n[Volatility is close to record lows and likely to stay there if no major geo-political surprises.]<\/p>\n

6 \u274c Small caps, cyclical sectors and value styles beat large caps, defensive and growth areas.
\nWe are on the wrong side of all three components of this prediction. We expect economic growth to rebound this year, which should lead investors to bid up cyclical and value sectors.
\n[Large caps and defensive stocks are overpriced because of low yields. Growth stocks are typical of stage III but normally joined by small caps.]<\/p>\n

7 \u2714 The financials, health care and information technology sectors outperform energy, utilities and materials.
\nA basket of our favored sectors (up 14.0%) is comfortably outperforming a basket of our least-favored ones (up 2.5%).
\n[Good call.]<\/p>\n

8 \u2714 Active managers\u2019 performance improves as flows into equities rise.
\nLast year, only 19% of U.S. large cap active equity managers beat their benchmarks. As of May, 52% are ahead. The pace of equity fund outflows has also slowed this year.
\n[I would rate this a “?”.]<\/p>\n

9 \u2714 Nationalist and protectionist trends rise as pro-domestic policies are pursued globally.
\nPresident Trump announced a withdrawal from the Paris climate change accords, has reconsidered trade deals and questioned fellow NATO member states. In Europe, Brexit negotiations are ongoing, although the French presidential election provided a nod back toward globalization.
\n[Nationalism still dominates.]<\/p>\n

10 \u2714 Initial optimism about the Trump agenda fades in light of slow legislative progress.
\nIt is almost hard to remember the high level of political optimism when we made this prediction six months ago. Now the pendulum may have swung too far in the opposite direction.
\n[Good call. Little has been achieved on infrastructure and tax reform.]<\/p>\n

[Conclusion: Secular trends<\/a>, as in #7, make the most reliable predictions, while it’s hard to beat a 50% success rate with shorter cycles.]<\/p>\n

Source: Weekly Investment Commentary from Bob Doll | Nuveen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Interesting review of Bob Doll’s ten predictions for the year. They highlight the hazards of making predictions: you can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons. 1 \u2753 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly as the dollar strengthens and reaches parity with the euro. First quarter U.S. gross domestic … <\/p>\n

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First quarter earnings results continue to impress, helped by tax cuts. With 85% of companies reporting, earnings are ahead of expectations by an average of 7.3%.1 Earnings-per-share growth is on track for 25%.1 Were it not for the effects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earnings & Dividends"","block_context":{"text":"Earnings & Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":47038,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/08\/a-2024-watershed\/","url_meta":{"origin":15506,"position":1},"title":"A 2024 watershed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This year is likely to be dominated by the November 2024 US presidential elections which represent a global watershed with far-reaching implications. 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Stocks are likely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-08-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10610,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/15\/secular-stagnation\/","url_meta":{"origin":15506,"position":2},"title":"Secular stagnation?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 15, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Economic recovery after the Great Recession has been disappointing. Employment levels remain low. Official unemployment figures ignore the declining participation rate. Employment levels, in the 25 to 54 age group, for males remain roughly 6%, and females 5%, below their previous peaks. Using the 25 to 54 age group eliminates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13734,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/16\/secular-stagnation-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":15506,"position":3},"title":"Secular stagnation?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Economic recovery after the Great Recession has been disappointing. Employment levels remain low. Official unemployment figures ignore the declining participation rate. Employment levels, in the 25 to 54 age group, for males remain roughly 6%, and females 5%, below their previous peaks. Using the 25 to 54 age group eliminates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58897,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/02\/job-growth-plunges-but-lt-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":15506,"position":4},"title":"Job growth plunges but UST yields rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Job growth plunged to 12K in October from 223K the previous month, but the unemployment rate was unchanged and long-term Treasury yields closed higher. Stocks remain stalled ahead of Tuesday's election, while gold and silver are retracing to test support. Stocks The S&P 500 rallied but failed to hold on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/03\/strong-jobs-data-but-dont-be-deceived\/","url_meta":{"origin":15506,"position":5},"title":"Strong jobs data but don’t be deceived","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 rallied to 4958 on a strong January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforcing our medium-term target of 5100. Small caps, however, remain cautious, with the iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) still close to medium-term support at 188\/190. The 10-year Treasury yield\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}