{"id":15385,"date":"2017-06-02T20:30:37","date_gmt":"2017-06-03T00:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15385"},"modified":"2017-06-02T20:30:37","modified_gmt":"2017-06-03T00:30:37","slug":"is-the-us-labor-market-tightening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the US labor market tightening?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I wouldn&#8217;t read too much into weaker US job gains of 138 thousand for May 2017. Job gains seem to be tapering in 2017, with February highest at 232 thousand, but this could also be a sign of tightening labor conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Monthly Nonfarm Payroll: Job Gains\" alt=\"Monthly Nonfarm Payroll: Job Gains\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Comments from respondents in yesterday&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2017\/06\/01\/ism-may-2017-report\/\">ISM report<\/a> showed hints of a tightening labor market:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Business conditions are steady, and with competition increasing, it&#8217;s making negotiations even more intense to reduce costs.&#8221; (Machinery)<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Business is booming, and getting direct employees is increasingly difficult.&#8221; (Fabricated Metal Products)<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Difficult to find qualified labor for factory positions.&#8221; (Food, Beverage &amp; Tobacco Products)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Unemployment continues to fall, reaching 4.3% for May 2017. The dip below the natural rate of unemployment also warns of tighter labor market conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Unemployment and the Natural Rate\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-unemployment.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment and the Natural Rate\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But there are no real signs of a tight labor market in hourly wages. In fact, hourly wage rate growth in the manufacturing sector is slowing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Hourly Wage Rate Growth and Core CPI\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-hourlywages-cpi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Hourly Wage Rate Growth and Core CPI\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Employee compensation as a percentage of value added (Q1 2017) is starting to rise and the percentage of profits (after tax) is declining. The lines tend to invert, with employee compensation peaking and profits dipping ahead of a recession. This still seems 12 months away.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Profits and Employee Compensation as % of Value Added\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-profits-compensation.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Profits and Employee Compensation as % of Value Added\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In summary, declining unemployment and rising employee compensation as a percentage of value added both indicate a tight labor market. But soft wage rate growth and falling core CPI suggest the Fed will be in no haste to apply the brakes. At least for the next three quarters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I wouldn&#8217;t read too much into weaker US job gains of 138 thousand for May 2017. Job gains seem to be tapering in 2017, with February highest at 232 thousand, but this could also be a sign of tightening labor conditions. Comments from respondents in yesterday&#8217;s ISM report showed hints of a tightening labor market: &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is the US labor market tightening?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,34],"tags":[1721,1960,2416,3531],"class_list":["post-15385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-hourly-wage-rate-growth","tag-job-gains","tag-natural-rate-of-unemployment","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the US labor market tightening? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the US labor market tightening? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I wouldn&#8217;t read too much into weaker US job gains of 138 thousand for May 2017. Job gains seem to be tapering in 2017, with February highest at 232 thousand, but this could also be a sign of tightening labor conditions. Comments from respondents in yesterday&#8217;s ISM report showed hints of a tightening labor market: &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Is the US labor market tightening?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-06-03T00:30:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Is the US labor market tightening?\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-03T00:30:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\"},\"wordCount\":240,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png\",\"keywords\":[\"hourly wage rate growth\",\"job gains\",\"natural rate of unemployment\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\",\"name\":\"Is the US labor market tightening? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-03T00:30:37+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-06-02-jobgains.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/02\/is-the-us-labor-market-tightening\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is the US labor market tightening?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Job gains seem to be tapering in 2017, with February highest at 232 thousand, but this could also be a sign of tightening labor conditions. 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During an ECB panel discussion Jerome Powell stated that he only expects the Fed to hit their 2.0% inflation target for core inflation in 2025. The Fed Chair says job creation and real wage gains are driving real incomes and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-02-u3-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42925,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/08\/strong-jobs-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":15385,"position":1},"title":"Strong jobs report, more rate hikes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest BLS Labor Report shows the economy gained 209,000 jobs in June, after seasonal adjustments. Average weekly hours worked rebounded to 34.4, showing stronger demand. Continued claims (for unemployment insurance) have been trending lower since April. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June, from 3.7% in May, close\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Gains","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42875,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/06\/fed-faces-three-uncomfortable-truths\/","url_meta":{"origin":15385,"position":2},"title":"Fed Faces Three Uncomfortable Truths","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IMF deputy head, Gita Gopinath, recently highlighted three uncomfortable truths for monetary policy: Inflation is taking too long to get back to target. Financial conditions may not be tight enough and sustained high inflation could make the task of bringing inflation down more difficult. Central banks' price and financial stability\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"IMF deputy head Gita Gopinath","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/gita-gopinath-150x200.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":40695,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/02\/02\/fed-hikes-but-bonds-and-stocks-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":15385,"position":3},"title":"Fed hikes but bonds and stocks rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 2, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed announced a 25 basis point hike in the Fed funds rate. Chairman Jerome Powell, at the post-meeting news conference, observed: \u201cInflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases. And while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-02-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58897,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/02\/job-growth-plunges-but-lt-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":15385,"position":4},"title":"Job growth plunges but UST yields rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Job growth plunged to 12K in October from 223K the previous month, but the unemployment rate was unchanged and long-term Treasury yields closed higher. Stocks remain stalled ahead of Tuesday's election, while gold and silver are retracing to test support. Stocks The S&P 500 rallied but failed to hold on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-01-spx2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":39208,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/01\/chairman-powells-speech\/","url_meta":{"origin":15385,"position":5},"title":"Chairman Powell&#8217;s speech","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 1, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks to the Brookings Institution, Wednesday 30th November, addressed two key questions: What does the Fed expect inflation to do in the months ahead? How is Fed monetary policy likely to respond? Where is inflation headed? \"Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-30-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-30-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-30-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15385\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}