{"id":15298,"date":"2017-05-18T18:30:15","date_gmt":"2017-05-18T22:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15298"},"modified":"2017-05-18T18:30:15","modified_gmt":"2017-05-18T22:30:15","slug":"sell-in-may-and-run-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/18\/sell-in-may-and-run-away\/","title":{"rendered":"Sell in May and run away?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Markets fell sharply today. But before we look at the charts, let’s examine three fundamental measures of market stress.<\/p>\n

A yield differential near zero indicates bank margins are being squeezed. Lending normally slows, leading to a recession. But the current yield differential of 1.45%, calculated by subtracting the yield on 3-month T-bills from the yield on 10-year Treasuries, is reasonably healthy.<\/p>\n

\"Yield<\/p>\n

The yield spread between the lowest investment grade corporate bonds (Baa) and 10-year Treasuries is a useful measure of market risk. The risk premium widens in times of uncertainty. Since 2016 the Baa spread has fallen by more than one percent, to 2.25%, indicating low market risk.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The above indications are supported by the St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index which is at a record low of -1.451 since its commencement in 1994.<\/p>\n

\"St<\/p>\n

The St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.<\/p>\n

The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Real GDP growth dipped to 1.9% for the first quarter 2017, compared to 2.0% for Q4 2016. While growth is modest, hours worked by nonfarm employees improved to 1.55% in April 2017 from a low of 1.03% in February, suggesting that growth is likely to continue.<\/p>\n

\"Real<\/p>\n

There is little sign of stress in financial markets other than the latest Trump turmoil<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets fell sharply today. But before we look at the charts, let’s examine three fundamental measures of market stress. A yield differential near zero indicates bank margins are being squeezed. Lending normally slows, leading to a recession. But the current yield differential of 1.45%, calculated by subtracting the yield on 3-month T-bills from the yield … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Sell in May and run away?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[67,3212,3726],"class_list":["post-15298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-st-louis-fed-financial-stress-index","tag-yield-differential"],"yoast_head":"\nSell in May and run away? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sell in May and run away? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets fell sharply today. 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I have always used the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16064,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/01\/13\/outlook-for-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":15298,"position":1},"title":"Outlook for 2018","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 13, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"At this time of year we are usually inundated with projections for the year ahead, from predictions of imminent collapse to expectations of a record year. We live in a world of uncertainty, where both extremes are possible, but neither is likely. We are clearly in stage 3 (the final\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":15298,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/18\/bond-spreads-bullish-for-us-less-so-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":15298,"position":3},"title":"Bond spreads bullish for US, less so Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Yield Curve The yield curve is one of the best predictors of US economic recessions. Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31607,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/22\/yield-curve-gymnastics\/","url_meta":{"origin":15298,"position":4},"title":"The yield curve recession warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A great deal has been written in the past month above the flat 10-year\/2-year Treasury yield curve and the inevitability of recession if the slope turns negative. Wolf Richter sums up the problem: The weight of the Fed\u2019s gargantuan balance sheet is pushing down on long-term yields that the Fed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Treasury Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/us-yield-curve-2022-03-21.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/21\/vix-hits-record-low\/","url_meta":{"origin":15298,"position":5},"title":"VIX hits record low","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) made a new low of 9.30 indicating record low levels of stock volatility. 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