{"id":15288,"date":"2017-05-15T03:06:25","date_gmt":"2017-05-15T07:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15288"},"modified":"2017-05-15T03:06:25","modified_gmt":"2017-05-15T07:06:25","slug":"is-the-asx-over-priced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/15\/is-the-asx-over-priced\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the ASX over-priced?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On the weekend I discussed how earnings for the S&amp;P 500 have grown by roughly 6.0% over the last three decades but the growth rate should rise as stock buybacks have averaged just over 3.0% a year since 2011. In an ideal world the growth rate would lift to close to 9.0% p.a. if buybacks continue at the present rate. Add a 2.0% dividend yield and we have an expected annual return close to 11.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Forward Price Earnings Ratio for S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"Forward Price Earnings Ratio for S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-12-fpe.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I conducted a similar exercise for the ASX using data supplied by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketindex.com.au\/data-downloads\" target=\"_blank\">marketindex.com.au<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The first noticeable difference is that earnings for the ASX All Ordinaries Index grew at a slower pace. Earnings since 1980 grew at an average compound annual growth rate of 4.4%, while dividends grew at a much higher rate of 6.3%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Forward Price Earnings Ratio for S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"Forward Price Earnings Ratio for S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-asx-earnings-dividends.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>How is that possible? <\/p>\n<p>Well the dividend payout ratio increased from the low forties to the high seventies. An average of just over 60%.<\/p>\n<p>With a current payout ratio of 77% (Feb 2017), there is little room to increase the payout ratio any further. I expect dividend growth to match earnings growth (4.4% p.a.) for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p>Buybacks are not a major feature on the ASX, where investors favor dividends because of the franking credits. The dividend yield is higher, at just over 4.0%, for the same reason.<\/p>\n<p>So the expected average return on the All Ordinaries Index should be no higher than 8.4% p.a. (the sum of dividend yield and expected growth) compared to an expected return of close to 11.0% for the S&amp;P 500. That is, if buybacks are effective in lifting the earnings growth rate.<\/p>\n<p>Obviously one has to factor in expected changes in the (AUDUSD) exchange rate, but that is a substantial difference for offshore investors. Local investors are also taking into account franking credits which benefit could amount to an additional 1.4% p.a.. But that still leaves a grossed-up return just shy of 10 percent (9.8% p.a.).<\/p>\n<p>I would have expected a larger risk premium for a smaller exchange with strong commodity exposure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the weekend I discussed how earnings for the S&amp;P 500 have grown by roughly 6.0% over the last three decades but the growth rate should rise as stock buybacks have averaged just over 3.0% a year since 2011. In an ideal world the growth rate would lift to close to 9.0% p.a. if buybacks &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/15\/is-the-asx-over-priced\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is the ASX over-priced?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,48,57],"tags":[118,266,1049,1156],"class_list":["post-15288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-earnings-dividends","category-stock-markets","tag-accumulation-index","tag-asx-all-ordinaries-index","tag-dividend-growth","tag-earnings-growth"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the ASX over-priced? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the ASX over-priced? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On the weekend I discussed how earnings for the S&amp;P 500 have grown by roughly 6.0% over the last three decades but the growth rate should rise as stock buybacks have averaged just over 3.0% a year since 2011. 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Forward estimates for 2017 contracted by an average of 4.6% over the last 12 months but not sufficient to raise the forward Price-Earnings Ratio above 20. That is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17828,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/04\/resmed-inc-rmd-financial-performance-fy18\/","url_meta":{"origin":15288,"position":1},"title":"ResMed Inc (RMD) &#8211; Financial Performance FY18","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Revenue & Earnings Revenue per share grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% between FY09 and FY18 while earnings per share (EPS) slowed noticeably in FY15 to FY17 before picking up in FY18. Earnings per share in FY18 and TTM are adjusted for US$ 138 million of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Revenue and Earnings per share","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/rmd_1_revenue_2018-12-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17543,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/06\/resmed-inc-rmd\/","url_meta":{"origin":15288,"position":2},"title":"ResMed Inc (RMD)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock: ResMed Inc Symbol: RMD Exchange: ASX Latest Price: $15.27 Market cap: $21.7 billion Currency: AUD Financial Year: 30 June Date: 6 December 2018 Sector: Healthcare Industry: Medical Devices Investment Theme: Long-term Growth Structural Trends: Ageing Population Financial performance Revenue & Earnings Revenue per share grew at a compound annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Revenue and Earnings per share","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/rmd_1_revenue_2018-12-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17993,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/22\/buybacks-interest-rates-and-declining-earnings-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":15288,"position":3},"title":"Buybacks, interest rates and declining growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed did a sharp about-turn on interest rates this week: a majority of FOMC members now expect no rate increases this year. Long-term treasury yields are falling, with the 10-Year breaking support at 2.55\/2.60 percent. Expect a test of 2.0%. While the initial reaction of stocks was typically bullish,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18544,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/13\/rate-cuts-and-buybacks-the-emperors-new-clothes\/","url_meta":{"origin":15288,"position":4},"title":"Rate cuts and buybacks &#8211; the emperor&#8217;s new clothes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The interest rate outlook is softening, with Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinting at rate cuts in his Wednesday testimony to Congress: \"Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to remain strong and inflation to move back over time.\" but.... \"Uncertainties about the outlook have increased\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/08\/sp-indices-sp-500-stock-buybacks-decrease-for-first-time-since-q2-2009\/","url_meta":{"origin":15288,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 dividend yields signal oversold?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Historically the S&P 500 was considered overbought -- and ripe for a bear market -- when the dividend yield dropped below 3 percent. A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however, disrupted this relationship, with the dividend yield falling close to 1.0 percent in the Dotcom era.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}