{"id":15280,"date":"2017-05-14T20:34:56","date_gmt":"2017-05-15T00:34:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15280"},"modified":"2017-05-14T20:34:56","modified_gmt":"2017-05-15T00:34:56","slug":"rba-stuck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA stuck"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Great slide from the NAB budget presentation:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"RBA Interest Rates in a Cleft Stick\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"RBA Interest Rates in a Cleft Stick\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The RBA is in a cleft stick:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Raising interest rates would increase mortgage stress and threaten stability of the banking system.<\/li>\n<li>Lowering interest rates would aggravate the housing bubble, creating a bigger threat in years to come.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The underlying problem is record high household debt to income levels. Housing affordability is merely a symptom.<\/p>\n<p>There are only two possible solutions:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Raise incomes; or<\/li>\n<li>Reduce debt levels.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Both have negative consequences. <\/p>\n<p>Raising incomes would primarily take place through higher inflation. This would generate more demand for debt to buy inflation-hedge assets, so would have to be linked to strong macroprudential (e.g. lower maximum LVRs for housing) to prevent this. A positive offshoot would be a weaker Dollar, strengthening local industry. The big negative would be the restrictive monetary policy needed to slow inflation when the job is done, with a likely recession.<\/p>\n<p>Shrinking debt levels without raising interest rates is difficult but macroprudential policies would help. Also policies that penalize banks for offshore borrowings. The big negative would be falling housing prices as investors try to liquidate some of their investments and the consequent threat to banking stability. The slow-down in new construction would also threaten an economy-wide down-turn. <\/p>\n<p>Of the two, I would favor the former option as having less risk. But there is a third option: wait in the hope that something will turn up. That is the line of least resistance and therefore the most likely course government will take.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Great slide from the NAB budget presentation: The RBA is in a cleft stick: Raising interest rates would increase mortgage stress and threaten stability of the banking system. Lowering interest rates would aggravate the housing bubble, creating a bigger threat in years to come. The underlying problem is record high household debt to income levels. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;RBA stuck&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,45,10],"tags":[1736,1858,2188,2377,2860],"class_list":["post-15280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-housing-economy","tag-housing-bubble","tag-interest-rates","tag-macroprudential","tag-mortgage-stress","tag-rba"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA stuck - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA stuck - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Great slide from the NAB budget presentation: The RBA is in a cleft stick: Raising interest rates would increase mortgage stress and threaten stability of the banking system. Lowering interest rates would aggravate the housing bubble, creating a bigger threat in years to come. The underlying problem is record high household debt to income levels. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;RBA stuck&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-05-15T00:34:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"RBA stuck\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-15T00:34:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\"},\"wordCount\":252,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png\",\"keywords\":[\"housing bubble\",\"interest rates\",\"macroprudential\",\"mortgage stress\",\"RBA\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"Debt Levels\",\"Housing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\",\"name\":\"RBA stuck - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-15T00:34:56+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-05-15-rba.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/14\/rba-stuck\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"RBA stuck\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Nothing like confirmation bias to screw up a good investment strategy. Here Jessica Irvine argues that the property bubble will not burst: Believe me, no one is keener than me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38974,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/22\/australias-debt-end-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":15280,"position":1},"title":"Australia&#8217;s debt end game","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We are nearing the end of a thirty year bull market in credit, during which time the overnight cash rate in Australia fell from 18% in 1989 to 0.03% in 2021. Low interest rates enabled households to borrow more relative to their income, with housing debt expanding 4.5 times, over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7386,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/01\/has-australia-hit-the-floor-with-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":15280,"position":2},"title":"Has Australia hit the floor with interest rates?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Izabella Kaminska made a strong argument on FT Alphaville last year for the RBA to lower interest rates and weaken the Australian Dollar to protect manufacturing and export industries: Australia\u2019s current account deficit coupled with a deeply negative net external debt position both provide strong fundamental impetus for currency weakening.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5846,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/25\/australia-rba-running-out-of-options\/","url_meta":{"origin":15280,"position":3},"title":"Australia: RBA running out of options","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Reserve Bank of Australia must be viewing the end of the mining boom with some trepidation. Cutting interest rates to stimulate new home construction may cushion the impact, but comes at a price. Consumers may benefit from lower interest rates but that is merely a side-effect: the real objective\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15059,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/30\/apra-fiddles-while-housing-risks-grow\/","url_meta":{"origin":15280,"position":4},"title":"APRA fiddles while housing risks grow","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 30, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Westpac today (emphasis added): ....With the Reserve Bank sharing our caution around 2018, along with ample capacity in the labour market (unemployment rate is 5.9% compared to full employment rate of 5.0%) and stubbornly low wages growth, there is only scope to cut rates. But as we have argued\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16497,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/07\/05\/australia-the-good-news-and-the-bad-news\/","url_meta":{"origin":15280,"position":5},"title":"Australia: Good news and bad news","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"First, the good news from the RBA chart pack. Exports continue to climb, especially in the Resources sector. Manufacturing is the only flat spot. Business investment remains weak and is likely to impact on long-term growth in both profits and wages. The decline is particularly steep in the Manufacturing sector\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15280\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}