{"id":15121,"date":"2017-04-07T18:58:23","date_gmt":"2017-04-07T22:58:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15121"},"modified":"2017-04-07T18:58:23","modified_gmt":"2017-04-07T22:58:23","slug":"jobs-inflation-the-fed-ecri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/07\/jobs-inflation-the-fed-ecri\/","title":{"rendered":"Jobs, Inflation & the Fed | ECRI"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI:<\/p>\n

Headline jobs growth came in well below expectations, and weather played some part in suppressing job growth, both in construction and retail.<\/p>\n

But the jobless rate dropped to 4.5%, its lowest reading since 2007, so the Fed\u2019s \u201cfull-employment\u201d mandate has been met.<\/p>\n

Their other mandate is on inflation, and over the past year I\u2019ve discussed our U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which anticipated the inflation cycle upturn shown by the chart. Today the forward looking USFIG remains near an 8\u00be -year high.<\/p>\n

The chart shows the year-over-year PCE inflation rising sharply to a 5-year high, and breaching the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target which is defined by this inflation measure.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For those who might think this is just about oil prices, please note that core PCE inflation, ex-food and energy, has also been rising, and now above 1\u00be%, the highest reading in over 2\u00bd years.<\/p>\n

This is what a cyclical upswing in inflation looks like.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the U.S. economy has a good tailwind from rising global growth.<\/p>\n

All of this helps explain why the Fed is finally able to implement a full-fledged rate hike cycle.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Source: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed | News | News and Events | ECRI<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI: Headline jobs growth came in well below expectations, and weather played some part in suppressing job growth, both in construction and retail. But the jobless rate dropped to 4.5%, its lowest reading since 2007, so the Fed\u2019s \u201cfull-employment\u201d mandate has been met. Their other mandate is on inflation, and over … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Jobs, Inflation & the Fed | ECRI”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"\nJobs, Inflation & the Fed | ECRI - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jobs, Inflation & the Fed | ECRI - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI: Headline jobs growth came in well below expectations, and weather played some part in suppressing job growth, both in construction and retail. But the jobless rate dropped to 4.5%, its lowest reading since 2007, so the Fed\u2019s \u201cfull-employment\u201d mandate has been met. 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The Fed has also been suppressing long-term interest rates, with QE1, QE2,\u00a0Operation Twist and now QE3. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18119,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/04\/13\/sp-500-rate-cuts-and-employment\/","url_meta":{"origin":15121,"position":1},"title":"S&P 500: Rate cuts and employment","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 13, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields rallied for the last two weeks but remain in a down-trend. Respect of resistance at 2.60% would warn of another decline. Inflation is subdued and it would be difficult for the Fed to motivate a rate cut when inflation is close to its 2.0% target. The consumer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41839,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/29\/core-pce-inflation-eases-but-employment-costs-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":15121,"position":2},"title":"Core PCE inflation eases but employment costs rise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Core PCE inflation eased slightly to 4.6% for the 12 months to March. The Fed's favorite measure of long-term inflation, core PCE is still a long way above the Fed's 2.0% target. But the lag between rate hikes and declining inflation is at least 12 months -- sometimes a lot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Core PCE Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-29-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26524,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/25\/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":15121,"position":3},"title":"Fed’s favorite inflation indicator surges","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index grew by 3.9% in the 12 months ended May '21, while Core PCE (excluding food & energy) came in slightly lower at 3.4%. We still have to watch out for base effects, because of the low readings in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Inflation"","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34109,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/06\/03\/the-feds-delay-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":15121,"position":4},"title":"The Fed’s delay game","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From Eric Cinnamond's excellent newsletter at Palm Valley Capital: Considering all the Fed\u2019s talk and limited action, it\u2019s clear the Federal Reserve is playing the delay game. Just one more month and we\u2019ll do it. Just one more data point and we\u2019ll do it. Just one more press conference talking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index & Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-03-spx-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-03-spx-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-03-spx-baa.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-06-03-spx-baa.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42365,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/01\/no-free-lunches-with-a-tight-labor-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":15121,"position":5},"title":"No free lunches with a tight labor market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"US job openings for April ticked up to 10.1 million, from 9.7 million in March. The gap above unemployment also widened -- by half a million, from 3.9 million in March to 4.4 million in April. Unemployment (3.4%) is at the lowest level in seventy years. The tight labor market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Openings & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-jolts-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}