{"id":15079,"date":"2017-04-01T00:47:09","date_gmt":"2017-04-01T04:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15079"},"modified":"2017-04-01T00:47:09","modified_gmt":"2017-04-01T04:47:09","slug":"3-headwinds-facing-the-asx-200","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/01\/3-headwinds-facing-the-asx-200\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 broke through stubborn resistance at 5800 but is struggling to reach 6000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-03-31-xjo.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There are three headwinds that make me believe that the index will struggle to break 6000:<\/p>\n<h4>Shuttering of the motor industry<\/h4>\n<p>The last vehicles will roll off production lines in October this year. A 2016 study by <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/collapse-of-australian-car-manufacturing-will-harm-randd-in-other-sectors-study-66984\">Valadkhani &amp; Smyth<\/a> estimates the number of direct and indirect job losses at more than 20,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Full time job losses from collapse of motor vehicle industry in Australia\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/valadkhani.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Full time job losses from collapse of motor vehicle industry in Australia\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But this does not take into account the vacuum left by the loss of scientific, technology and engineering skills and the impact this will have on other industries.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;R&amp;D-intensive manufacturing industries, such as the motor vehicle industry, play an important role in the process of technology diffusion. These findings are consistent with the argument in the Bracks report that R&amp;D is a linchpin of the Australian automotive sector and that there are important knowledge spillovers to other industries.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Collapse of the housing bubble<\/h4>\n<p>An oversupply of apartments will lead to falling prices, with heavy discounting already evident in Melbourne as developers attempt to clear units. Bank lending will slow as prices fall and spillover into the broader housing market seems inevitable. Especially when:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Current prices are supported by strong immigration flows which are <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.wordpress.com\/2017\/03\/27\/is-the-coalition-prepared-to-die-defending-the-housing-bubble\/\">bound to lead to a political backlash<\/a> if not curtailed;<\/li>\n<li>The RBA is <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.wordpress.com\/2017\/03\/30\/apra-fiddles-while-housing-risks-grow\/\">low on ammunition<\/a>; and <\/li>\n<li>Australian households are leveraged to the eyeballs &mdash; the highest level of Debt to Disposable Income of any OECD nation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Debt to Disposable Income\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-03-31-hhdebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Debt to Disposable Income\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Falling demand for iron ore &amp; coal<\/h4>\n<p>China is headed for a contraction, with a sharp down-turn in growth of M1 money supply warning of tighter liquidity. Falling housing prices and record iron ore inventory levels are both likely to drive iron ore and coal prices lower.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"China M1 Money Supply Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-03-31-china-m1.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China M1 Money Supply Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Australia has survived the last decade on Mr Micawber style economic management, with something always turning up at just the right moment &mdash; like the massive 2009-2010 stimulus on the chart above &mdash; to rescue the economy from disaster. But sooner or later our luck will run out. As any trader will tell you: Hope isn&#8217;t a strategy.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>&#8220;I have no doubt I shall, please Heaven, begin to be more beforehand with the world, and to live in a perfectly new manner, if &mdash; if, in short, anything turns up.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Wilkins Micawber from David Copperfield by Charles Dickens\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ASX 200 broke through stubborn resistance at 5800 but is struggling to reach 6000. There are three headwinds that make me believe that the index will struggle to break 6000: Shuttering of the motor industry The last vehicles will roll off production lines in October this year. A 2016 study by Valadkhani &amp; Smyth &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/01\/3-headwinds-facing-the-asx-200\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,41,43,45,5,10],"tags":[251,290,518,663,723,1328,1736,1902,2380,2381],"class_list":["post-15079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-debt-levels","category-economy","category-housing-economy","tag-asx-200","tag-australia","tag-bulk-commodities","tag-china","tag-coal","tag-exports","tag-housing-bubble","tag-iron-ore","tag-motor-industry","tag-mr-micawber"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ASX 200 broke through stubborn resistance at 5800 but is struggling to reach 6000. There are three headwinds that make me believe that the index will struggle to break 6000: Shuttering of the motor industry The last vehicles will roll off production lines in October this year. 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Headwinds stem mainly from domestic sources. Low employment and disposable income growth have slowed consumption, especially of durables such as housing and motor vehicles. Construction work done in the private engineering sector (mainly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15127,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/07\/asx-200-faces-bank-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":15079,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 faces bank headwinds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 300 Banks Index continues to test support at 9000. Declining Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and reversal below 8900 would warn of a correction. The ASX 200 continues its advance towards 6000, with rising Twiggs Money Flow signaling buying pressure. But it is vulnerable to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/07\/27\/iron-ore-tailwinds-lift-the-asx\/","url_meta":{"origin":15079,"position":2},"title":"Iron ore tailwinds lift the ASX","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Further increases in iron ore prices are predicted. Enrico de la Cruz at Mining.com reports: Singapore-based steel and iron ore data analytics firm Tivlon Technologies is keeping its price forecast of $150 a tonne by October. \u201cWe expect the launch of infrastructure projects in China to peak in the third\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20738,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/13\/asx-hesitates\/","url_meta":{"origin":15079,"position":3},"title":"ASX hesitates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 13, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 hesitated at 6000 after the Fed came out with a bearish assessment of the US economy. Money Flow retreated below zero, waring of selling pressure. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction to test primary support at 4500. Banks retreated sharply, with a Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19282,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/19\/asx-and-3-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":15079,"position":4},"title":"ASX and 3 headwinds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite recent strong performance, investor enthusiasm may be cooling, with the Australian economy facing three headwinds. Declining Household Spending Household income growth is faltering and weighing down consumption. Household spending would have fallen even further, dragging the economy into recession, if households were not digging into savings to maintain their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18476,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/29\/asx-200-plain-sailing-at-present\/","url_meta":{"origin":15079,"position":5},"title":"ASX 200 plain sailing at present","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Iron ore tailwinds show no signs of abating, with spot prices close to $110\/tonne. It's all plain sailing, with the ASX 200 advancing towards its 2007 high at 6830. Penetration of the rising trendline is unlikely but would warn of a correction to test support at 6000. I continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15079"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15079\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}