….With the Reserve Bank sharing our caution around 2018, along with ample capacity in the labour market (unemployment rate is 5.9% compared to full employment rate of 5.0%) and stubbornly low wages growth, there is only scope to cut rates. But as we have argued consistently, a resurgent housing market disallows such a policy option<\/strong>. Indeed, the minutes refer to \u201ca build- up of risks associated with the housing market\u201d. A tighter macro prudential stance seems appropriate.<\/p>\nIndeed, as we go to press, APRA has announced new controls, restricting the “flow of new interest-only lending to 30 per cent of total new residential mortgage lending” with a particular focus on limiting interest only loans with a loan-to-value ratio [LVR] above 80%. Currently, “interest-only terms represent nearly 40 per cent of the stock of residential mortgage lending by ADIs”, so this policy will restrict the terms at which a marginal borrower can access credit (investors and owner-occupiers). APRA also noted that they want banks to manage growth in investor credit to “comfortably remain below the previously advised benchmark of 10 per cent growth”. This is not a hard change to the target as had been mooted recently in the press (some suggesting the 10% limit could be as much as halved), but it does suggest lending to investors will continue to grow at a pace meaningfully below 10%. Looking ahead, the next RBA Stability Review (April 13) may provide more clarity on the macro prudential policy outlook and potential triggers for further action. For the time being though, the 2015 experience offers an understanding of the potential impact of this further tightening.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
To head off a potential bubble burst, the RBA and APRA need to drastically slow house price growth. I am sure the big four banks are urging caution but they would be the worst hit by a meltdown. What APRA is doing is fiddling around the margins. To make housing investors think twice about further borrowing, APRA needs to cut the maximum LVR to 70%. And half that for foreign borrowers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
From Westpac today (emphasis added): ….With the Reserve Bank sharing our caution around 2018, along with ample capacity in the labour market (unemployment rate is 5.9% compared to full employment rate of 5.0%) and stubbornly low wages growth, there is only scope to cut rates. But as we have argued consistently, a resurgent housing market … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “APRA fiddles while housing risks grow”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,45,10],"tags":[214,1895,2130,2188,2259],"class_list":["post-15059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-housing-economy","tag-apra","tag-investor-mortgages","tag-loan-to-value-ratio","tag-macroprudential","tag-maximum-lvr"],"yoast_head":"\nAPRA fiddles while housing risks grow - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"APRA fiddles while housing risks grow - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Westpac today (emphasis added): ….With the Reserve Bank sharing our caution around 2018, along with ample capacity in the labour market (unemployment rate is 5.9% compared to full employment rate of 5.0%) and stubbornly low wages growth, there is only scope to cut rates. 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Household indebtedness has continued to rise and some riskier types of borrowing, such as interest-only\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10408,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/27\/world-wakes-to-apra-paralysis-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":15059,"position":1},"title":"World wakes to APRA paralysis | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Posted by Houses & Holes: Bloomberg has a penetrating piece today hammering RBA\/APRA complacency on house prices, which will be read far and wide in global markets (as well as MB is!): Central banks from Scandinavia to the U.K. to\u00a0New Zealand\u00a0are sounding the alarm about soaring mortgage debt and trying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_3294 Jul. 14 11.51","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13052,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/21\/apra-gives-the-rba-some-wiggle-room-business-spectator\/","url_meta":{"origin":15059,"position":2},"title":"APRA gives the RBA some wiggle room | Business Spectator","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 21, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Gottliebsen predicts further rate cuts from the RBA: Given that Australian interest rates are higher than other countries of similar standing, money is now flowing Down Under which works to boost the currency and some are forecasting that the exchange rate could rise as high as US80c. Thanks to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28677,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/05\/rba-monetary-policy-and-the-housing-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":15059,"position":3},"title":"RBA monetary policy and the housing market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the RBA was forced to abandon its efforts at yield-curve control (YCC) because of bond market resistance: ...Confronted with market rates for the 2024 bonds that made a mockery of its yield target, the RBA had some options. It could have changed the maturity targeted; it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18588,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/01\/australian-banks-still-overpriced\/","url_meta":{"origin":15059,"position":4},"title":"Australian banks: Still overpriced","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary We have just completed a review of Australia's four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- and conclude that they are collectively overpriced by 23.5 percent. Our review is based on APRA's quarterly reports, where the four banks can be viewed as a collective unit. The ASX\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10857,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/10\/big-banks-may-need-41b-more-capital-ubs-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":15059,"position":5},"title":"Big banks may need $41b more capital, UBS says","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 10, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From Chris Joye at AFR: UBS\u2019s more likely scenario of a 3 per cent TBTF capital buffer combined with an increase in the average mortgage risk weight to 25 per cent gives a total capital shortfall of $41.1 billion for the majors. Risk-weightings, especially for residential mortgages are coming under\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}