{"id":15045,"date":"2017-03-27T21:47:32","date_gmt":"2017-03-28T01:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=15045"},"modified":"2017-03-27T21:47:32","modified_gmt":"2017-03-28T01:47:32","slug":"is-the-coalition-prepared-to-die-defending-the-housing-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/27\/is-the-coalition-prepared-to-die-defending-the-housing-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Coalition prepared to die defending the housing bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I don&#8217;t always agree with David Llewellyn-Smith but love his pithy style. Here he takes the Turnbull government to task over their housing and immigration policies.<\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted with kind permission from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2017\/03\/is-the-coalition-prepared-to-die-defending-the-housing-bubble\/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily%20MacroBusiness&amp;utm_content=Daily%20MacroBusiness+CID_8500a0b394b65d48b8c61950fff85b78&amp;utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&amp;utm_term=Is%20the%20Coalition%20prepared%20to%20die%20defending%20the%20housing%20bubble\">Macrobusiness<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;.Because that\u2019s what it looks like.<\/p>\n<p>We all know that the Coalition hearts the housing bubble. Everything it does spells undying infatuation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>protecting property tax rorts;<\/li>\n<li>focusing only on supply-side reform and even then doing pretty much nothing;<\/li>\n<li>shelving any and all policy reform that might disrupt its smooth and burgeoning progeny, plus<\/li>\n<li>running a staggeringly huge immigration program despite widespread economic damage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It\u2019s the last point that I want to focus on today because that\u2019s the one where Coalition bubble-love rubber hits the road for its electoral prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Since the WA election, Coalition polling has been devastated. A little bounce in Newspoll has been wiped out by landslides against the government in Ipsos and Essential polls. Moreover, the carnage has been just as apparent in the Coalition\u2019s primary vote which has hemorrhaged voters to One Nation. The latter has been unaffected by the WA election despite doing less well than expected.<\/p>\n<p>The major change in politics since the state result has been a commitment by One Nation to never ally with the Coalition again. The fringe party has realised that such pragmatism is lethal to its prospects.<\/p>\n<p>This simple truth seems yet to have filtered through to the federal Coalition. As One Nation takes a material portion of its vote, and that vote refuses point blank to ally with it, there is ZERO chance of the Coalition winning a federal election ever again, and probably not at the state level either.\u00a0While One Nation exists in this form, the Coalition has effectively ceased to exist as a political force.<\/p>\n<p>One might have thought that the prospect of NEVER WINNING ANOTHER ELECTION might be enough to trigger some soul-searching in the party. And it has done a little. Do-nothing Malcolm has switched from toying with random ideas to deploying random ideas but it\u2019s still all at the margins and is meaningless:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>18c reform won\u2019t move the needle;<\/li>\n<li>contradictory coal and hydro investment won\u2019t move the needle;<\/li>\n<li>a retrograde company tax cut won\u2019t move the needle;<\/li>\n<li>a supply-side housing affordability Budget won\u2019t move the needle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All together they might nudge it a little but it won\u2019t be enough. Nothing like it.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, I\u2019ll go so far as to say that the Coalition could do the following immensely popular policies and it would still get clubbed from office:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>abolish negative gearing;<\/li>\n<li>install gas reservation;<\/li>\n<li>offer tax cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The problem is that these are all cyclical fixes for what is a structural shift to One Nation driven by one very simple truth: Australians are done with high immigration.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s Pauline Hanson\u2019s primary appeal. She makes little sense on other issues and is bat shit crazy on many. But her one great power, the one that vibrates deep in the bowels of every Australian that is marginalised by house prices, falling wages, can\u2019t get a job, is fearful of Islam or just a bigot, or is just plain pissed off at the direction of the country, is the deep and legitimate truth\u00a0that running a mass immigration program during a period of high unemployment is treasonous economics.<\/p>\n<p>Thus there is only one policy shift that\u00a0can change the Coalition\u2019s fate and it is as plain as the nose on Pauline Hanson\u2019s face: cut immigration and cut it hard.<\/p>\n<p>Cutting immigration back to 70k per year or less would completely shift every electoral parameter as the Coalition:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>finally had a housing affordability policy to put up against Labor\u2019s negative gearing reforms;<\/li>\n<li>finally had an environmental policy to put up against the immigration-hypocritical\u00a0Greens;<\/li>\n<li>could gut One Nation overnight and go to work on wiping it out by exposing the loons as weakening polls divide them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This one policy shift would put the Coalition instantly in the running for the next election <em>even if it were Do-nothing Malcolm that did it<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>So, why does the Coalition suffer from such suicidal bubble-love that it can\u2019t or won\u2019t grab this lifeline?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>many <\/em>Coalition MPs are personally leveraged to the bubble so they\u2019ve their own financial interests in mind;<\/li>\n<li>as yesterday\u2019s revelations about the MPs that prevented negative gearing reform showed, they are political hacks with terrible policy judgement;<\/li>\n<li>they are bereft of the intellectual depth and corporate memory to contemplate alternative economic models. Cutting immigration to 70k would take pressure off eastern capital house prices enabling further rate cuts and a lower currency;<\/li>\n<li>the Howard and Costello myths make this even worse,<\/li>\n<li>and, the Coalition is closely wedded to the business interests in banking, retail and construction that benefit from high immigration even as the net result is negative for the wider economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I\u2019ll add one more factor which appears increasingly important. Career politicians don\u2019t care for their own political party or its nominal values as they used to. The dominant ideology of unglued self-interest comes with the wonderful fringe benefit of not having to take responsibility for anything. Contemporary Coalition MPs see party membership as a gravy train to private sector riches in board positions, lobbying roles and other forms of \u2018control fraud\u2019 in the very sectors that thrive on the bubble. So, for them, arbitraging the fate of the party for personal gain is all just a part of being a good liberal.<\/p>\n<p>Backing self-interest used to work in political forecasting but\u00a0does this rabble even have that in them?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I don&#8217;t always agree with David Llewellyn-Smith but love his pithy style. Here he takes the Turnbull government to task over their housing and immigration policies. Cross-posted with kind permission from Macrobusiness: &#8230;.Because that\u2019s what it looks like. We all know that the Coalition hearts the housing bubble. Everything it does spells undying infatuation: protecting &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/27\/is-the-coalition-prepared-to-die-defending-the-housing-bubble\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is the Coalition prepared to die defending the housing bubble?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,29],"tags":[1732,1791,2096,2566],"class_list":["post-15045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-big-picture","tag-housing","tag-immigration","tag-liberal-national-coalition","tag-one-nation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Coalition prepared to die defending the housing bubble? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the Coalition prepared to die defending the housing bubble? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I don&#8217;t always agree with David Llewellyn-Smith but love his pithy style. Here he takes the Turnbull government to task over their housing and immigration policies. Cross-posted with kind permission from Macrobusiness: &#8230;.Because that\u2019s what it looks like. We all know that the Coalition hearts the housing bubble. 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Both have undergone a resources and housing boom. Four charts highlight the differences and similarities between the two countries. Australia's spike in mining investment during the resources boom did serious damage\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8428,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/16\/imbalances-in-the-australian-housing-market-chris-joye\/","url_meta":{"origin":15045,"position":1},"title":"Imbalances in the Australian housing market | Chris Joye","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Chris Joye from the Financial Review warns on Radio National that imbalances that may be developing in the Australian housing market: http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Z4kTC0ie2HE Hat tip to Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness.com.au who comments: \"My only observation is that governments of all persuasions have for too long abrogated their responsibilities for housing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/Z4kTC0ie2HE\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":59735,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/09\/flat-out-like-a-nation-sinking-matt-barrie\/","url_meta":{"origin":15045,"position":2},"title":"Flat Out Like a Nation Sinking | Matt Barrie","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This lengthy essay by Matt Barrie on Australia's economic suicide is well worth devoting the time to read: Night view of Queen Street, Brisbane in 1959 Imagine you were given a singular task: to dismantle a nation \u2014 not with bombs, not with bullets, but from the inside out. Where\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Fertility Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/fertlityrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/fertlityrate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/fertlityrate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9323,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/03\/deflating-australias-land-bubble\/","url_meta":{"origin":15045,"position":3},"title":"Deflating Australia\u2019s land bubble","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Great post by Leith van Onselen Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness.com.au. Prosper Australia has provided a submission to the Senate Inquiry into Housing Affordability, which is well worth a look. The submission first provides nine metrics illustrating Australia\u2019s residential property bubble, which include the following: It took forty years\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_18 Jul. 05 10.22","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/ScreenHunter_18-Jul.-05-10.22-200x200.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15091,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/04\/sorry-folks-this-aint-no-property-bubble\/","url_meta":{"origin":15045,"position":4},"title":"Sorry folks, this ain&#8217;t no property bubble","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"I have been predicting the collapse of the Australian property bubble, so feel obliged to also present the opposite view. Nothing like confirmation bias to screw up a good investment strategy. Here Jessica Irvine argues that the property bubble will not burst: Believe me, no one is keener than me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15079,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/01\/3-headwinds-facing-the-asx-200\/","url_meta":{"origin":15045,"position":5},"title":"3 Headwinds facing the ASX 200","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 1, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 broke through stubborn resistance at 5800 but is struggling to reach 6000. There are three headwinds that make me believe that the index will struggle to break 6000: Shuttering of the motor industry The last vehicles will roll off production lines in October this year. A 2016\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15045\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}