{"id":14958,"date":"2017-03-14T03:07:08","date_gmt":"2017-03-14T07:07:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14958"},"modified":"2017-03-14T03:07:08","modified_gmt":"2017-03-14T07:07:08","slug":"australia-dont-expect-a-repeat-of-the-last-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/australia-dont-expect-a-repeat-of-the-last-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia: Don’t expect a repeat of the last boom"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom.<\/p>\n

There are two main ways the last commodity boom boosted domestic activity. Neither seems likely to be repeated now. The first is that the mining sector lifted its investment spending as commodity prices increased (Exhibit 5). Now, however, mining investment is likely to continue to fall (although most of the declines have been seen).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The second way the mining boom filtered through to domestic activity was via fiscal policy. The boom provided a windfall for governments. For the Federal Government the windfall was several percent of GDP….Almost all the revenue windfall was used to fund a discretionary loosening of fiscal policy….. With the budget now in deficit I expect the Federal Government to trouser the latest windfall. (Yes, there will be political pressure on a behind-in-the-polls-government to spend more, but the countervailing political fear is that to spend the windfall now would lead to a politically damaging downgrade to Australia\u2019s sovereign rating.)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The unforeseen consequence of this government profligacy was a spectacular rise in the Aussie Dollar and subsequent decimation of the manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n

Source: Minack Special Report: Forget rate hikes – MacroBusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom. There are two main ways the last commodity boom boosted domestic activity. Neither seems likely to be repeated now. The first is that the mining sector lifted its investment spending as commodity … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Australia: Don’t expect a repeat of the last boom”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities"],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia: Don't expect a repeat of the last boom - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia: Don't expect a repeat of the last boom - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom. 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In a speech he gave last week, Gruen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14856,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/21\/australia-canada-in-4-charts\/","url_meta":{"origin":14958,"position":1},"title":"Australia & Canada in 4 charts","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 21, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"RBA governor Phil Lowe recently made a speech comparing the experiences of Australia and Canada over the last decade. Both have undergone a resources and housing boom. Four charts highlight the differences and similarities between the two countries. Australia's spike in mining investment during the resources boom did serious damage\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14363,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/australia-infrastructure-spending-nosedives\/","url_meta":{"origin":14958,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Infrastructure spending nosedives","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 17, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Andrew Hanlan at Westpac: Total real infrastructure activity contracted by almost 10% in the June quarter 2016, to be 26% below the level of a year ago. That was the fourth year of contraction..... Infrastructure construction work is declining rapidly. First, we had the end of the mining boom\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29675,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/12\/06\/the-dollar-and-commodity-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":14958,"position":3},"title":"The Dollar and commodity prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 6, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"A client sent a note asking for our outlook on commodity prices, considering that the Dollar is rising. Our reply contains some overlap with other updates but provides a useful overview: Copper Global demand for copper is expected to grow substantially, boosted by: Electric vehicles -- each EV uses roughly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Copper\/CPI & Gold\/CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-03-copper-gold-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-03-copper-gold-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-03-copper-gold-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2021\/2021-12-03-copper-gold-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17863,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/11\/why-the-rba-shouldnt-cut-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":14958,"position":4},"title":"Why the RBA shouldn’t cut interest rates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There are growing cries in local media for the RBA to cut interest rates in order to avoid a recession. House prices are falling and shrinking finance commitments point to further price falls. Declining housing values are likely to lead to a negative wealth effect, with falling consumption as household\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5536,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/20\/prepare-for-the-mining-bust-house-and-holes-macrobusiness-com-au\/","url_meta":{"origin":14958,"position":5},"title":"Prepare for the mining bust – House and Holes | macrobusiness.com.au","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 20, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"By Houses and Holes on September 20, 2012 The grey-beards of Australian economics today unite to deliver one enormous wake-up call to the nation, its government, its interests, its media and its people. Don\u2019t get me wrong, the bucket of cold water is not deserved in equal measures. For mine,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14958\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}