{"id":14880,"date":"2017-02-27T01:14:53","date_gmt":"2017-02-27T06:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14880"},"modified":"2017-02-27T01:14:53","modified_gmt":"2017-02-27T06:14:53","slug":"forward-pe-turns-back-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/27\/forward-pe-turns-back-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Forward P\/E turns back up"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Dow Jones Industrials<\/h2>\n<p>Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb, heading for a target of 21000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-02-25-dow.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 follows a similar path.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-02-25-spx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" \/><\/p>\n<p>With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close to historic lows around 10 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-02-25-vix.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"VIX\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, at least one investment manager, <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2017\/02\/21\/we-are-growing-less-positive-but-not-negative-toward-equities-bob-doll\/\">Bob Doll<\/a>, is growing more cautious:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;we think the easy gains for equities are in the rearview mirror and we are growing less positive toward the stock market. We do not believe the current bull market has ended, but the pace and magnitude of the gains we have seen over the past year are unlikely to persist.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Forward P\/E Ratio<\/h2>\n<p>Bob Doll&#8217;s view is reinforced by recent developments with the S&amp;P 500 Forward Price-Earnings Ratio. I remarked <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2017\/02\/04\/sp-500-price-earnings-suggest-time-to-buy\/\">at the beginning of February<\/a> that the Forward P\/E had dropped below 20, signaling a time to invest.<\/p>\n<p>Actual earnings results, however, have come in below earlier estimates &mdash; shown by the difference between the first of the purple (latest estimate) and orange bars (04Feb2017) on the chart below.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward Price-Earnings Ratio\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-02-25-spx-forwardpe.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward Price-Earnings Ratio\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the mean time the S&amp;P 500 index has continued to climb, driving the Forward P\/E up towards 20.<\/p>\n<p>This is not yet cause for alarm. We are only one month away from the end of the quarter, when Forward P\/E is again expected to dip as the next quarter&#8217;s earnings (Q1 2018) are taken into account.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward Price-Earnings Ratio\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2017\/2017-02-25-spx-forwardpe-next.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Forward Price-Earnings Ratio\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But there are two events that would be cause for concern:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>If the index continues to grow at a faster pace than earnings; and\/or<\/li>\n<li>If forward earnings estimates continue to be revised downward, revealing over-optimistic expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Either of the above could cause Forward P\/E to rise above 20, reflecting over-priced stocks.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Warren Buffett\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dow Jones Industrials Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb, heading for a target of 21000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure. The S&amp;P 500 follows a similar path. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close to historic lows around 10 percent. However, at least one investment manager, Bob Doll, is &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/27\/forward-pe-turns-back-up\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Forward P\/E turns back up&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,57,34],"tags":[1113,1434,1449,3010],"class_list":["post-14880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-dividends","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-forecast-earnings","tag-forward-price-earnings-ratio","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forward P\/E turns back up - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forward P\/E turns back up - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dow Jones Industrials Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb, heading for a target of 21000. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow signal strong buying pressure. The S&amp;P 500 follows a similar path. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close to historic lows around 10 percent. 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Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/19\/us-earnings-scare\/","url_meta":{"origin":14880,"position":1},"title":"US: Earnings scare","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Disappointing quarterly earnings from Google, Microsoft, Intel, IBM and McDonald's over the past week led to a sell-off on Friday. The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1430. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of renewed (medium-term) selling pressure -- a peak below zero would strengthen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17417,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/17\/v-or-m-shaped-correction\/","url_meta":{"origin":14880,"position":2},"title":"V- or M-shaped correction?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 17, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I mentioned that there are few \"V-shaped\" corrections and plenty with a \"W-shape\". There are also a few with an \"M-shape\", leading to a major market sell-off. Here are some examples on Dow Jones Industrial Average. 2001 is the only good example I can find of a V-shaped\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14915,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/03\/dow-jones-industrials\/","url_meta":{"origin":14880,"position":3},"title":"Dow Jones Industrials","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 3, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week above 21000 for the first time. Twelve months ago the index was at 17000, an increase of 23.5 percent. Shallow retracements since then signal buying pressure, highlighted by Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero. The latest trough, higher than zero, reflects growing enthusiasm\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20064,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/21\/sp-500-this-time-its-different\/","url_meta":{"origin":14880,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: &#8220;This time it&#8217;s different&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"No warning. No volatility working its way higher as market fears build. Just a sudden and abrupt crash. It's more reminiscent of October 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6% in a single session, than the most recent two stock market crashes (2000 & 2008). In 1987 the Dow from a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5411,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/07\/sp-500-breakout\/","url_meta":{"origin":14880,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 breakout","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 7, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 broke through resistance to signal a primary advance. Dow Industrial Average has yet to confirm. Timing of the breakout is significant, with November elections looming and the Fed doing its best to prime the pump. September\/October is a tentative time of the year, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14880\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}