{"id":14669,"date":"2016-12-12T18:45:35","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T23:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14669"},"modified":"2016-12-12T18:45:35","modified_gmt":"2016-12-12T23:45:35","slug":"factors-that-could-derail-equity-markets-bob-doll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/12\/factors-that-could-derail-equity-markets-bob-doll\/","title":{"rendered":"Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Bob Doll\" alt=\"Bob Doll\" src=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/bob_doll_december_2015_market_update.jpg?w=525\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;.Although we have a generally positive view toward the economy, earnings and equity markets, we think it is worth pointing out some possible risks given how quickly and how far markets have moved higher over the past month. To us, the main risk to equity markets is the surge in government bond yields and the rising value of the U.S. dollar. Higher bond yields could create a drag on equity valuations and a higher dollar could put pressure on corporate earnings.<\/p>\n<p>If the current advances in yields and the dollar moderate, equity markets should not experience much damage &#8230;.we expect any equity market sell-off resulting from a possible yield\/dollar spike to be short-lived.<\/p>\n<p>We are also watching possible political negatives from Donald Trump\u2019s presidency, such as escalating geopolitical turmoil, currency wars with China or anti-immigration\/anti-globalization trends. Additionally, investors may become wary of improving sentiment and less attractive valuations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Unlike the period since the end of the Great Recession, market sell-offs have been brief and followed quickly by strong risk-on moves. As a result of this shift and a seemingly more solid economic and earnings backdrop, we think it makes sense to retain overweight positions in equities.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I am cautiously bullish. A lot of good could come out of Republican control of both Congress and the Senate, including a revision of the corporations tax code and a more cautious approach to globalization. <\/p>\n<p>The dangers are <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com\/2016-12-10-markets-gold-economy.php\">high stock valuations<\/a>, with the potential for a backlash if earnings falter or risk levels spike, and <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com\/2016-11-26-markets-gold-economy.php\">low business investment<\/a> that could hurt future growth. I still consider a Trump administration an additional risk factor. Trump has made some solid appointments, like the highly-regarded Mike Mattis (pleased to see Michael McFaul, former Obama point man on Russia, supporting the appointment) but still has the potential to do some crazy stuff as Bob pointed out. <\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nuveen.com\/Commentary\/BobDoll\/WeeklyCommentary.aspx?utm_source=WeeklyCommentary&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=bobdoll&amp;spMailingID=10035999&amp;spUserID=MTcwOTQwNzYzODE3S0&amp;spJobID=1061082174&amp;spReportId=MTA2MTA4MjE3NAS2\">Weekly Investment Commentary from Bob Doll | Nuveen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments: &#8230;.Although we have a generally positive view toward the economy, earnings and equity markets, we think it is worth pointing out some possible risks given how quickly and how far markets have moved higher over the past month. To us, the main risk to equity markets is the surge &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/12\/factors-that-could-derail-equity-markets-bob-doll\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,29,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Factors that Could Derail Equity Markets | Bob Doll - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Bob Doll at Nuveen Investments: &#8230;.Although we have a generally positive view toward the economy, earnings and equity markets, we think it is worth pointing out some possible risks given how quickly and how far markets have moved higher over the past month. 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At this point, the pace of the recovery is clearly slowing, and policymakers are running out of options to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14017,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/22\/us-equity-prices-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":14669,"position":1},"title":"US equity prices | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 22, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Bob Doll's view on equities: Equity indices have again hit new records, but we believe fundamental changes may be necessary for prices to continue advancing strongly. Specifically, earnings would have to improve further and\/or investor flows would have to turn notably toward stocks. Neither is out of the question, but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/26\/bob-doll-mid-year-assessment-of-our-ten-predictions\/","url_meta":{"origin":14669,"position":2},"title":"Bob Doll: Mid-Year Assessment of Our Ten Predictions","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting review of Bob Doll's ten predictions for the year. They highlight the hazards of making predictions: you can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons. 1 \u2753 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly as the dollar strengthens and reaches parity with the euro.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18847,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/no-recession-but-growth-sluggish-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":14669,"position":3},"title":"Time to be defensive","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bob Doll at Nuveen says he does not expect a recession (for the next few quarters) but remains neutral towards stocks: \"Although stock prices have advanced over the last couple of weeks, investors remain focused on downside economic and policy risks and are increasingly concerned about a possible recession. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16122,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/23\/why-is-the-dollar-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":14669,"position":4},"title":"Why is the Dollar falling?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The broad, trade-weighted US Dollar index has been declining since early 2017. This is the best explanation I have found for current US Dollar weakness. From Bank of Montreal, BMO Nesbitt Burns: The relationship isn\u2019t perfect, but as a general rule of thumb, the USD declines in years when global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14952,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/equities-could-see-a-setback-but-this-bull-market-isnt-over-bob-doll\/","url_meta":{"origin":14669,"position":5},"title":"Equities Could See a Setback, But This Bull Market Isn\u2019t Over | Bob Doll","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Sensible view from Bob Doll at Nuveen: ....Given evidence of stronger economic growth, we could see the Fed become slightly more aggressive about its rate policies, but probably not to the point that it would derail the equity bull market. On balance, we think the risks are skewed to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14669\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}