{"id":14659,"date":"2016-12-09T22:16:41","date_gmt":"2016-12-10T03:16:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14659"},"modified":"2016-12-09T22:16:41","modified_gmt":"2016-12-10T03:16:41","slug":"china-hits-turbulence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/","title":{"rendered":"China hits turbulence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Shanghai Composite Index is retracing from its recent high at 3300. A test of support at 3100 is likely. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure but this may be distorted by state intervention in the stock market earlier this year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 &#8211; 2800 ) = 3400<\/p>\n<p>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng Index found support at 22000 but falling Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of 22000 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 20000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Hang Seng Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-hsi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The best summary I have seen of China&#8217;s dilemma is from David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230;China\u2019s choices are limited here by the \u201cimpossible trinity\u201d, that a country [pegged to the Dollar] can only choose two out of the following three:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>control of a fixed and stable exchange rate<\/li>\n<li>independent monetary policy<\/li>\n<li>free and open international capital flows<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>China has been trying to run this gauntlet by sustaining an overly high growth rate via loose monetary policy and recently liberalised capital markets plus exchange rate. But it can\u2019t have stability in all three and so is in full reverse on the last two to prevent a currency rout and\/or monetary tightening.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Rising interest rates in the US are likely to bedevil China&#8217;s monetary policy. A falling Yuan would encourage capital flight. Capital flight would damage the Yuan, encouraging further outflows. Support of the Yuan would deplete foreign reserves and cause monetary tightening. Loose monetary policy would encourage speculative bubbles which could damage the banking system. A falling Yuan and loose monetary policy would fuel inflation. Inflation would further weaken the Yuan and encourage capital flight. Restriction of capital outflows would end capital inflows. <\/p>\n<p>I am sure that there are some very smart people working on the problem. But they are probably the same smart people who created the problem in the first place.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shanghai Composite Index is retracing from its recent high at 3300. A test of support at 3100 is likely. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure but this may be distorted by state intervention in the stock market earlier this year. * Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 &#8211; 2800 ) = 3400 Hong &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;China hits turbulence&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41,13],"tags":[663,1644,3100],"class_list":["post-14659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-inflation-economy","tag-china","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China hits turbulence - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China hits turbulence - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Shanghai Composite Index is retracing from its recent high at 3300. A test of support at 3100 is likely. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure but this may be distorted by state intervention in the stock market earlier this year. * Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 &#8211; 2800 ) = 3400 Hong &hellip; Continue reading &quot;China hits turbulence&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"China hits turbulence\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\"},\"wordCount\":300,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png\",\"keywords\":[\"China\",\"Hang Seng Index\",\"Shanghai Composite Index\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"China &amp; HK\",\"Inflation\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\",\"name\":\"China hits turbulence - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"China hits turbulence\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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A test of support at 3100 is likely. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure but this may be distorted by state intervention in the stock market earlier this year. * Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 &#8211; 2800 ) = 3400 Hong &hellip; Continue reading \"China hits turbulence\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_published_time":"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"ColinTwiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"ColinTwiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/"},"author":{"name":"ColinTwiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5"},"headline":"China hits turbulence","datePublished":"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/"},"wordCount":300,"commentCount":1,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png","keywords":["China","Hang Seng Index","Shanghai Composite Index"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; Interest Rates","China &amp; HK","Inflation"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/","name":"China hits turbulence - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png","datePublished":"2016-12-10T03:16:41+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-12-10-ssec.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/12\/09\/china-hits-turbulence\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"China hits turbulence"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout would provide further confirmation of the primary up-trend. * Target medium-term: 3100 + ( 3100 - 2800 ) = 3400 The rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14158,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/16\/china-hang-seng-retreats\/","url_meta":{"origin":14659,"position":2},"title":"China: Hang Seng retreats","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 16, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (monthly) broke resistance at 24000 after a strong up-trend, but this week retreated below the new support level. Expect a test of the rising trendline around 22000. A Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm long-term buying pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index (monthly chart)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6086,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/08\/asia-india-hong-kong-strengthen\/","url_meta":{"origin":14659,"position":3},"title":"Asia: India &#038; Hong Kong strengthen","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"India's Sensex respected support at 18500. Recovery above 19000 would confirm the primary advance to 21000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breach of support is now unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 16500. * Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15210,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/28\/china-tests-support-while-india-strengthens\/","url_meta":{"origin":14659,"position":4},"title":"China tests support while India strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 28, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Shanghai's Composite Index is testing support at 3100. Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero but buying pressure remains weak. Breach of 3100 would warn of a primary down-trend. * Target medium-term: May 2016 low of 2800 Hong Kong is faring better, with the Hang Seng index recovering above 24000 to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6286,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/27\/china-shanghai-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":14659,"position":5},"title":"China: Shanghai breaks support","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 27, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Shanghai Composite Index followed the DJ Shanghai Index, breaking primary support at 2000 to warn of a down-swing to 1850*. Completion of another\u00a063-day Twiggs Momentum peak, this time deep below zero, would indicate a strong primary down-trend. Recovery above 2000 is unlikely but would suggest a bear trap. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14659\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}