{"id":14585,"date":"2016-11-25T23:58:43","date_gmt":"2016-11-26T04:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14585"},"modified":"2016-11-25T23:58:43","modified_gmt":"2016-11-26T04:58:43","slug":"priming-the-pump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/priming-the-pump\/","title":{"rendered":"Priming the Pump"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US stocks are buoyant on hopes that a Donald Trump presidency will benefit business, with major indexes <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2016\/11\/25\/its-a-bull-market\/\">flagging a bull market<\/a>. But promises come first, the costs come later. While I support a broad infrastructure program and the creation of a level playing field in global markets, the actual execution of these ideas is critical and should not be allowed to be hijacked by the establishment for their own ends. <\/p>\n<p>Erection of trade barriers is a useful negotiating position but is unlikely to be achieved without enormous damage to the global economy. As long as your trading partners think you are crazy enough to do it, they may be more amenable to establishing fair ground rules for international trade. If they don&#8217;t believe the threat, they will be happy to continue on their present path. So Trump walks a fine line between reassuring his allies and the domestic market, while keeping others guessing about his intentions.<\/p>\n<p>Before we get carried away with hopes and expectations, however, we need to evaluate the current state of the economy in order to assess the current potential for growth.<\/p>\n<h2>The Cons<\/h2>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the negatives.<\/p>\n<p>Construction spending is slow, at about three-quarters of pre-GFC (and sub-prime) levels. It will take more than an infrastructure program to restore this (though it is a step in the right direction). What is needed is higher growth expectations for the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Construction Spending to GDP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-construction.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Construction Spending to GDP\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Industrial production is close to its pre-GFC peak but has been declining since 2014.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Industrial Production Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-production.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Industrial Production Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Job growth is slowing. Decline below 1.0 percent would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Employment Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-jobgrowth.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rail and freight activity also reflects a slow-down since 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Rail &amp; Freight Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-railfreight.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rail &amp; Freight Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Philadelphia Fed&#8217;s broad-based Leading Index has also softened since 2014. Decline below 1.0 percent would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Leading Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-leading.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Leading Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>One of my favorite indicators, this graph compares profit margins (per unit of gross value added) to employee costs. There is a clear cycle: employee costs (per unit) fall after a recession while profits rise. As the economy recovers and approaches full capacity, employee costs start to rise and profits fall \u2014 which leads to the next recession. At present we can clearly see employee costs are rising and profit margins are falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Profits and Employee Costs per unit of Value Added\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-profits-employeecosts.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Profits and Employee Costs per unit of Value Added\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It will be difficult for corporations to continue to grow earnings in this environment. Business investment is falling.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Gross Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-investment.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Gross Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Plowing money into stock buybacks rather than into new investment may shore up corporate performance for a while but hurts construction and industrial production. Turning this around is a major challenge facing the new administration.<\/p>\n<h2>The Pros<\/h2>\n<p>Retail sales are rising as increased employee compensation costs lift consumer confidence. Solid November sales with strong Black Friday numbers would help lift confidence even further.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Retail Sales\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-retail.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Retail Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Light vehicle sales are also recovering, a key indicator of consumers&#8217; long-term outlook.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Light Vehicle Sales\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-11-26-lightvehicles.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Light Vehicle Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rising sales and infrastructure investment are only part of the solution. What Donald Trump needs to do is <i>prime the pump<\/i>: introduce a fairer tax system, minimize red tape and reduce political interference in the economy, while enforcing strong regulation of the financial sector. Not an easy task, but achieving these goals would help restore business confidence, revive investment, and set the economy on a sound growth path.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>In the short run, the market is a voting machine<br \/>\nbut in the long run it is a weighing machine.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Benjamin Graham: Security Analysis (1934)\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US stocks are buoyant on hopes that a Donald Trump presidency will benefit business, with major indexes flagging a bull market. But promises come first, the costs come later. While I support a broad infrastructure program and the creation of a level playing field in global markets, the actual execution of these ideas is critical &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/priming-the-pump\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Priming the Pump&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,28,29,34],"tags":[536,793,1225,1229,1821,2109,2789,2943],"class_list":["post-14585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment-infrastructure","category-taxes-inequality","category-the-big-picture","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-business-investment","tag-construction-spending","tag-employee-costs","tag-employment-growth","tag-industrial-production","tag-light-vehicle-sales","tag-profit-margins","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Priming the Pump - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Priming the Pump - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US stocks are buoyant on hopes that a Donald Trump presidency will benefit business, with major indexes flagging a bull market. 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There is, however, one issue in which they seem in agreement..... both candidates have expressed support for increased infrastructure spending. This is good news for manufacturing and heavy industries. .....Trump has supported rebuilding infrastructure from the beginning\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15665,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/04\/china-holds-its-head-above-water\/","url_meta":{"origin":14585,"position":1},"title":"China holds its head above water","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A quick snapshot from the latest RBA chart pack. Manufacturing is holding its head above water (50 on the PMI chart) and industrial production shows a small upturn but investment growth is falling, as in many global economies including the US and Australia. Retail sales growth has declined but remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26571,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/30\/china-retail-sales-and-credit-contraction\/","url_meta":{"origin":14585,"position":2},"title":"China retail sales and credit contraction","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 30, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Chinese retail sales are falling as credit tightens. Leland Miller at China Beige Book: \"It is hard for people to understand how hard China is squeezing credit.....Parts of the economy are going well but for any durable recovery you need consumption to come back, you need retail and services back.....\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25446,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/24\/a-case-for-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":14585,"position":3},"title":"A case for inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr Lacy Hunt from Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas is one of the most highly respected market commentators but I find we have diametrically opposing views on the inflation outlook. Dr Hunt begins his current quarterly bulletin with the statement: \"Contrary to the conventional wisdom, disinflation is more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26956,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/21\/prepare-for-an-ev-wave\/","url_meta":{"origin":14585,"position":4},"title":"Prepare for an EV wave","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Mining.com provides a useful illustration of rising demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements used in the manufacture of electric vehicles. Lithium is the standout, with EV requirements of 165% of total production. The recent IEA forecast projects lithium demand under two scenarios.......\"the Stated Policies Scenario, which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":30488,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/01\/17\/commodities-stock-and-real-estate-cycles\/","url_meta":{"origin":14585,"position":5},"title":"Commodities: Super-cycle or bust?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 17, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Some market commentators talk of how we are near the beginning of a new commodity super-cycle but they make the mistake of measuring prices in US Dollars which is hardly a stable benchmark. The Dollar has lost at least two-thirds of its value over the past 40 years. Measured against\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Copper&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Copper","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/copper\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Purchasing Power of the Dollar","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-17-dollar-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-17-dollar-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-17-dollar-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-01-17-dollar-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14585\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}