{"id":145,"date":"2011-08-10T00:30:39","date_gmt":"2011-08-10T04:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=145"},"modified":"2011-08-10T00:30:39","modified_gmt":"2011-08-10T04:30:39","slug":"china-faces-lower-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/10\/china-faces-lower-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"China faces lower growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><span style=\"color:#008080;\">China&#8217;s growth over the past couple of decades was based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturing&#8230;&#8230;. This can&#8217;t continue.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color:#008080;\">~ By Michael Pettis &#8211;<\/span> <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904140604576497810075933194.html\" target=\"_blank\">WSJ.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>As Japan and other fast-growing economies in the past have discovered, continued infrastructure spending grows increasingly wasteful and fails to deliver further growth. Subsidizing business through artificially low interest rates may encourage private investment as an alternative, but leads to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>bloated, inefficient corporations;<\/li>\n<li>high inflation; and<\/li>\n<li>massive speculative bubbles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Options are narrowing and a shift to private consumption as the main driver of future growth is not without its risks:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>low interest rates and high inflation are eroding private savings;<\/li>\n<li>higher interest rates, however, would unmask business inefficiencies and collapse the speculative property bubble;<\/li>\n<li>higher wages, on the other hand, will fuel inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This Chinese puzzle may not be easy to solve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s growth over the past couple of decades was based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturing&#8230;&#8230;. This can&#8217;t continue. ~ By Michael Pettis &#8211; WSJ.com As Japan and other fast-growing economies in the past have discovered, continued &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/10\/china-faces-lower-growth\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;China faces lower growth&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China faces lower growth - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China faces lower growth - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China&#8217;s growth over the past couple of decades was based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturing&#8230;&#8230;. 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As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturing&#8230;&#8230;. 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Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let's start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Private Investment\/GDP & Real GDP\/Total Non-farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48306,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/low-growth-and-high-inflation-unless-there-is-a-productivity-miracle\/","url_meta":{"origin":145,"position":1},"title":"Low growth and high inflation unless there is a productivity miracle","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent Adam Taggart interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, where he breaks down the macro issues facing developed economies. https:\/\/youtu.be\/98UFbC8hDNQ The highlights for us are: GDP growth is a functional of two variables: demographics and productivity. Demographics are a headwind as birthrates fall and populations are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/98UFbC8hDNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":39471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/10\/australia-hard-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":145,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Hard times","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"You don't have to be an Einstein to figure out that 2023 is going to be a tough year. Australian consumers have already worked this out, with sentiment plunging to record lows. The bellwether of the Australian economy is housing. Prices are tumbling, with annual growth now close to zero.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-09-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/05\/rba-monetary-policy-what-could-go-wrong\/","url_meta":{"origin":145,"position":3},"title":"RBA Monetary Policy: What could go wrong?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 5, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor Monetary Policy Decision 4 April 2017 At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Both global trade and industrial production have picked up. Labour markets have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24530,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/12\/the-challenge-facing-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":145,"position":4},"title":"The challenge facing Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Interest rates are at record lows. New housing loans are soaring, with commitments at record levels. Auction clearance rates are climbing. While private residential building approvals have taken off. But non-mining business investment is plunging. Ultra-low interest rates have boosted demand for housing. Especially with major banks projecting a 20%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27803,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/09\/09\/low-interest-rates-and-the-debt-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":145,"position":5},"title":"Low interest rates and the debt trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 1980, debt levels have more than doubled, from 1.4 times GDP to more than 2.8 in Q1 this year. The rise has been facilitated (and encouraged) by a sharp fall in long-term interest rates, with 10-year Treasury yields falling from a peak of close to 16% in September 1981\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}