{"id":14430,"date":"2016-11-03T01:08:18","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T05:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14430"},"modified":"2016-11-03T01:08:18","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T05:08:18","slug":"bond-spreads-financial-risk-is-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/03\/bond-spreads-financial-risk-is-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"Bond spreads: Financial risk is easing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bond spreads are an important indicator of risk in financial markets. When corporate bond yields are at a substantial premium to Treasury yields, that indicates higher default risk among large corporations. The graph below, from the RBA chart pack, shows the premium charged for AA-rated corporations compared to US Treasuries. Anything over 150 basis points (bps) indicates elevated risk. For lower-rated BBB corporations, a spread greater than 300 bps is cause for concern. At present, both credit spreads are trending lower, suggesting that financial risk is easing.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

Australia displays a similar picture, with AA-rated spreads trending lower. BBB spreads are also falling but remain high at 200 bps relative to 150 bps in the US, reflecting Australia’s vulnerability to commodities and real estate (both here and in China).<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bond spreads are an important indicator of risk in financial markets. When corporate bond yields are at a substantial premium to Treasury yields, that indicates higher default risk among large corporations. The graph below, from the RBA chart pack, shows the premium charged for AA-rated corporations compared to US Treasuries. Anything over 150 basis points … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bond spreads: Financial risk is easing”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,41,34],"tags":[825,884,2971],"class_list":["post-14430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-china-hk","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-corporate-bonds","tag-credit-spreads","tag-risk-premium"],"yoast_head":"\nBond spreads: Financial risk is easing - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bond spreads: Financial risk is easing - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bond spreads are an important indicator of risk in financial markets. When corporate bond yields are at a substantial premium to Treasury yields, that indicates higher default risk among large corporations. The graph below, from the RBA chart pack, shows the premium charged for AA-rated corporations compared to US Treasuries. 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Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":50400,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/25\/junk-bonds-bitcoin-a-heady-mix\/","url_meta":{"origin":14430,"position":1},"title":"Bitcoin & junk bonds – a heady mix","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 25, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin broke resistance at $68K to signal another test of $72K. Breakout above $72K would offer a target of $82K. Junk bond spreads (relative to 10-year Treasury yields) have declined to 8.54%, indicating readily available credit in financial markets. A decline to lows around 5.0%, however, would be an early\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56433,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/07\/contracting-liquidity-could-spoil-the-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":14430,"position":2},"title":"Contracting liquidity could spoil the recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Japanese Yen found support and stocks enjoyed a slight bounce as less cautious buyers went hunting for bargains. But financial markets are not settled. Corporate bond spreads are widening and Bitcoin broke support at $60K to warn of contracting liquidity. Financial Markets Moody's low investment-grade Baa corporate bond spread\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Moody's Baa Rated Corporate Bond Spreads","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-06-baa.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/08\/sp-500-short-term-versus-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":14430,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500: Short-term versus long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 8, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The market is excited at the prospect of Fed rate cuts (in response to the US-CCP trade war), with the S&P 500 headed for another test of its earlier high at 2950. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates short-term buying pressure. Falling bond yields, however, warn of a flight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19948,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/11\/coronavirus-market-selloff-a-gross-overreaction\/","url_meta":{"origin":14430,"position":4},"title":"Coronavirus market selloff ‘a gross overreaction’","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I don't agree with this conclusion from Karen Andersen at Morningstar on the impact that COVID-19 will have on the global economy: \"Although we project a grim set of scenarios in terms of fatalities in our analysis, our view on the economic impact is much more sanguine.... To be sure,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52552,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/09\/sell-in-may-and-go-away\/","url_meta":{"origin":14430,"position":5},"title":"Sell in May and go away…","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The truism \"Sell in May, go away, and come back on St. Leger\u2019s Day\" originated centuries ago in the City of London. St Leger's Day is on September 15th. Markets were quiet during the summer, until investors returned from their holidays. A far more genteel era. There is still evidence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-08-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-08-spx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-08-spx2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14430\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}