{"id":14364,"date":"2016-10-17T21:20:20","date_gmt":"2016-10-18T01:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14364"},"modified":"2016-10-17T21:20:20","modified_gmt":"2016-10-18T01:20:20","slug":"china-faces-debt-trifecta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/","title":{"rendered":"China faces debt trifecta"},"content":{"rendered":"

From PIMCO:<\/p>\n

Given the size of its economy \u2013 and the high stock of debt for a country at its stage of development \u2013 China\u2019s leverage will be a global issue in the future, not just a China issue.<\/p>\n

Total debt to GDP in China was around 250% at the end of 2015, the highest among emerging economies…. Over the medium term, we expect more debt creation in China: Leverage is unavoidable for China to achieve its growth targets.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Corporate debt \u2013 at more than 120% of GDP \u2013 remains the key cause for concern in China….<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What will China do in dealing with its mounting leverage? Policymakers appear to have two options.<\/p>\n

Option 1: China moves more aggressively to remove the moral hazard in its financial system. That would be the prudent thing to do but would release pent-up perils; defaults would climb, and banks would rack up losses.<\/p>\n

Option 2: China postpones reform and instead tries to patch the current system (\u201ckick the can down the road\u201d). That would be safer in the short term, but the inexorable accumulation of debt would slow the economy over the secular horizon and raise the odds of a hard landing in the future.<\/p>\n

In our base case, China will take Option 2 and move only temporarily to Option 1 in good, calm times, resulting in a slow-moving process that shifts between the two approaches……<\/p>\n

China faces similar challenges today as Japan did in the past: <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The need to rebalance from investment to consumption (which Japan experienced in the 1970s)<\/li>\n
  2. Credit- and asset-bubble risk (Japan in the 1980s) <\/li>\n
  3. A rapidly aging population (Japan since the mid-1990s)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In dealing with their debt problems, China and Japan share an important advantage \u2013 they are external creditors. They also have important differences, however, which should make China\u2019s deleveraging process (when it finally happens) more complicated for the rest of the world: China\u2019s global spillover effect should be larger than Japan\u2019s due to China\u2019s size, its commodity and emerging market linkages and its still-evolving exchange rate regime. China has an uncertain and complex political trajectory. The rest of the world, particularly developed countries, still faces the challenge of stimulating growth following the global financial crisis. China today is facing all three of these challenges simultaneously, while Japan had the opportunity to deal with each one of them sequentially.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    China seems likely to continue kicking the can down the road, digging itself into an even bigger hole.<\/p>\n

    Source: Rising Leverage in Emerging Asia Where Is It Headed | PIMCO<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    From PIMCO: Given the size of its economy \u2013 and the high stock of debt for a country at its stage of development \u2013 China\u2019s leverage will be a global issue in the future, not just a China issue. Total debt to GDP in China was around 250% at the end of 2015, the highest … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “China faces debt trifecta”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nChina faces debt trifecta - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China faces debt trifecta - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From PIMCO: Given the size of its economy \u2013 and the high stock of debt for a country at its stage of development \u2013 China\u2019s leverage will be a global issue in the future, not just a China issue. Total debt to GDP in China was around 250% at the end of 2015, the highest … Continue reading "China faces debt trifecta"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"China faces debt trifecta\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\"},\"wordCount\":419,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF\",\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\",\"name\":\"China faces debt trifecta - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"China faces debt trifecta\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\",\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"ColinTwiggs\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/colin58s\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China faces debt trifecta - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China faces debt trifecta - the patient investor","og_description":"From PIMCO: Given the size of its economy \u2013 and the high stock of debt for a country at its stage of development \u2013 China\u2019s leverage will be a global issue in the future, not just a China issue. Total debt to GDP in China was around 250% at the end of 2015, the highest … Continue reading \"China faces debt trifecta\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_published_time":"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"ColinTwiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"ColinTwiggs","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/"},"author":{"name":"ColinTwiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5"},"headline":"China faces debt trifecta","datePublished":"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/"},"wordCount":419,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF","articleSection":["Stock Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/","name":"China faces debt trifecta - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF","datePublished":"2016-10-18T01:20:20+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.pimco.com\/-\/media\/global-assets\/insights\/viewpoints\/viewpoints\/2016\/pimco_viewpoint_mieth_masanao_sep2016_fig1.ashx?h=368&w=575&la=en-us&hash=24B500CD55F96BCCBAC5C06042947FC74A8A51FF"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/17\/china-faces-debt-trifecta\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"China faces debt trifecta"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5","name":"ColinTwiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"ColinTwiggs"},"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/colin58s\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-3JG","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":28304,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/12\/deconstructing-evergrandes-effect-on-china\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":0},"title":"Deconstructing Evergrande’s effect on China","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Elliot Clarke at Westpac says that China will be able to withstand the shock of Evergrande's collapse and that power outages are a bigger threat. https:\/\/youtu.be\/z3wmpdiGRNQ We still think that the property sector contagion is part of a broader issue that China will struggle to overcome, as Michael Pettis succinctly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/z3wmpdiGRNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8158,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/23\/economonitor-beijings-new-leaders-are-right-to-hold-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":1},"title":"EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 23, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael Pettis argues that China cannot stimulate its economy out of trouble: There are still bulls out there who insist that China is out of the woods and making a strong recovery, for example former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Stephen Grenville, who argues in his article\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14506,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/18\/china-choosing-more-debt-more-unemployment-or-transfers-michael-pettis\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":2},"title":"China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers | Michael Pettis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 18, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Michael Pettis: I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as it tries to manage through the adjustment process. My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43889,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/06\/chinas-debt-and-implications-for-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":3},"title":"China’s debt and implications for Australia","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China remains Australia's biggest export market despite a rapid fall in exports during the COVID pandemic -- in retaliation for Morrison government calls for an inquiry into the cause of the outbreak. Value of LNG exports to Japan have surged, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but China remains our\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Exports by Country","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-09-05-aus-exports-country.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12074,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/16\/chinas-debt-to-gdp-ratio-just-climbed-to-a-record-high-bloomberg-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":4},"title":"China’s\u00a0Debt-to-GDP Ratio Just Climbed to a Record High – Bloomberg Business","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 16, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ye Xie and Belinda Cao at Bloomberg: While China's economic expansion beat analysts' forecasts in the second quarter, the country's debt levels increased at an even faster pace. Outstanding loans for companies and households stood at a record 207 percent of gross domestic product at the end of June,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":27410,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/08\/16\/michael-pettis-china-faces-an-impossible-challenge\/","url_meta":{"origin":14364,"position":5},"title":"Michael Pettis: China faces an impossible challenge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"When it comes to the challenges facing the Chinese economy, Michael Pettis' insights are in a class of their own: \"The Chinese growth model has relied very heavily on investment which in turn has relied very heavily on debt. As China began to over-invest in nonproductive projects, as it has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14364\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}