{"id":14307,"date":"2016-10-11T18:57:20","date_gmt":"2016-10-11T22:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14307"},"modified":"2016-10-11T18:57:20","modified_gmt":"2016-10-11T22:57:20","slug":"what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1\u00bd and 1\u00be%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, reducing its contribution to productivity growth through labor quality&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\">Figure 1<br \/>\nSlowing growth in working-age population and labor force<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2016\/october\/new-normal-for-gdp-growth\/?utm_source=mailchimp&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter-2016-10-11\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\">Figure 2<br \/>\nVariation in productivity growth by trend period<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2016\/october\/new-normal-for-gdp-growth\/?utm_source=mailchimp&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter-2016-10-11\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-2.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There is one other factor that I believe is a major determinant of low productivity gains and hence GDP growth. Private investment \u2014 a major contributor to productivity improvement \u2014 is <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2016\/10\/07\/us-private-investment-dwindles\/\">declining as a percentage of GDP<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2016\/october\/new-normal-for-gdp-growth\/\">Economic Research | What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed: Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1\u00bd and 1\u00be%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed: Estimates suggest the new normal for U.S. GDP growth has dropped to between 1\u00bd and 1\u00be%, noticeably slower than the typical postwar pace. The slowdown stems mainly from demographics and educational attainment. As baby boomers retire, employment growth shrinks. And educational attainment of the workforce has plateaued, &hellip; Continue reading &quot;What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-11T22:57:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-11T22:57:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\"},\"wordCount\":136,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\",\"name\":\"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-11T22:57:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png?fit=420%2C280&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/2016-30-1.png?fit=420%2C280&ssl=1\",\"width\":420,\"height\":280},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/10\/11\/what-is-the-new-normal-for-u-s-growth\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Some are right on the mark while others seem to have missed the basic rules of Supply and Demand taught\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10610,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/15\/secular-stagnation\/","url_meta":{"origin":14307,"position":1},"title":"Secular stagnation?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 15, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Economic recovery after the Great Recession has been disappointing. Employment levels remain low. Official unemployment figures ignore the declining participation rate. Employment levels, in the 25 to 54 age group, for males remain roughly 6%, and females 5%, below their previous peaks. Using the 25 to 54 age group eliminates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13734,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/16\/secular-stagnation-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":14307,"position":2},"title":"Secular stagnation?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Economic recovery after the Great Recession has been disappointing. Employment levels remain low. Official unemployment figures ignore the declining participation rate. Employment levels, in the 25 to 54 age group, for males remain roughly 6%, and females 5%, below their previous peaks. Using the 25 to 54 age group eliminates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16230,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/05\/02\/is-gdp-doomed-to-low-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":14307,"position":3},"title":"Is GDP doomed to low growth?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP failed to rebound after the 2008 Financial Crisis, sinking into a period of stubborn low growth. Economic commentators have advanced many explanations for the causes, while the consensus seems to be that this is the new normal, with the global economy destined to decades of poor growth. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/16\/productivity-not-population-key-to-aussie-living-standards-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":14307,"position":4},"title":"Productivity not population key to Aussie living standards | Macrobusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 16, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"From Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness: Former ALP minister Craig Emerson has penned an article in The AFR calling on the Morrison Government to tackle Australia\u2019s declining productivity growth, which is central to boosting the nation\u2019s living standards: \u201cProductivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in Australians\u2019\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14907,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/10\/robust-job-growth-solid-labor-market-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":14307,"position":5},"title":"Robust Job Growth, Solid Labor Market | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From WSJ: The pace of job creation remained robust in February, with payrolls rising by a seasonally adjusted 235,000 new jobs, the Labor Department said. Evidence of continued health in the U.S. labor market likely cleared the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates next week. 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