{"id":14246,"date":"2016-09-30T18:14:34","date_gmt":"2016-09-30T22:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14246"},"modified":"2016-09-30T18:14:34","modified_gmt":"2016-09-30T22:14:34","slug":"why-would-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-when-the-economy-is-slowing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/30\/why-would-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-when-the-economy-is-slowing\/","title":{"rendered":"Why would the Fed raise interest rates when the economy is slowing?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields have rebounded off their all-time low, shown here on a monthly chart, but remain in a secular down-trend. Only recovery above 3.0 percent (a long way off) would signal that the long-term down-trend has reversed.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-09-30-tnx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The 5-year breakeven inflation rate (5-year Treasury Yield &#8211; 5-year TIPS yield) suggests that the long-term outlook for inflation is low. But growth in Hourly Non-Farm Earnings and Core CPI (excluding Food and Energy) has started to rise.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"5-year Breakeven rate &amp; Hourly Non-Farm Earnings Growth\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-09-30-inflation.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"5-year Breakeven rate &amp; Hourly Non-Farm Earnings Growth\" \/><\/p>\n<p>One would expect the Fed to be preparing for another rate increase to tame inflationary pressures. But there are still concerns about the strength of the recovery. <\/p>\n<p>Growth in estimated total weekly Non-Farm Earnings has been declining since early 2015; calculated by multiplying Average Hourly Earnings by Average Weekly Hours and the Total Non-Farm Payroll. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Estimated Weekly Non-Farm Earnings\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-09-30-earnings.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Estimated Weekly Non-Farm Earnings\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If we examine the breakdown, growth in the Total Non-Farm Payroll is slowing and Average Weekly Hours Worked are declining.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Average Weekly Hours\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-09-30-hours.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Average Weekly Hours\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Not what one would expect from a robust recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10-Year Treasury yields have rebounded off their all-time low, shown here on a monthly chart, but remain in a secular down-trend. Only recovery above 3.0 percent (a long way off) would signal that the long-term down-trend has reversed. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate (5-year Treasury Yield &#8211; 5-year TIPS yield) suggests that the long-term outlook &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/30\/why-would-the-fed-raise-interest-rates-when-the-economy-is-slowing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Why would the Fed raise interest rates when the economy is slowing?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,34],"tags":[70,321,1720,3443],"class_list":["post-14246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-average-weekly-hours-worked","tag-hourly-non-farm-earnings","tag-total-non-farm-payroll"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why would the Fed raise interest rates when the economy is slowing? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why would the Fed raise interest rates when the economy is slowing? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields have rebounded off their all-time low, shown here on a monthly chart, but remain in a secular down-trend. Only recovery above 3.0 percent (a long way off) would signal that the long-term down-trend has reversed. 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The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, close to its 60-year low of 3.4% (1969). The labor market remains tight, with job openings exceeding unemployment by 5 million. Estimated hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-05-nonfarm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24929,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/03\/quick-gold-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":14246,"position":1},"title":"Quick Gold snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 3, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot Gold respected support at $1670\/ounce. Follow-through above $1750 would signal a test of the upper trend channel. 10-Year Treasury yields are steady at 1.71%, while the inflation breakeven rate continues its climb, reaching 2.36%, with the real yield holding at -0.65%. The Dollar Index weakened slightly but is still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":31382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/07\/us-payrolls-rise-but-oil-and-gas-warn-of-slowing-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":14246,"position":2},"title":"US payrolls rise but oil and gas warn of slowing growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Total US non-farm payrolls grew by 678K in February and are now only 2.1 million behind their peak from early 2020 Month-on-month increases in average hourly earnings dropped to 0.30%, but February is normally a quiet month, with a similar (0.32%) increase in 2020. High annual hourly wages growth, at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Non-Farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-03-04-payroll.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12440,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":14246,"position":3},"title":"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25100,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/12\/gold-the-dollar-and-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":14246,"position":4},"title":"Gold, the Dollar and inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year TIPS yields encountered resistance at -0.60% and retreated to -0.69% on Thursday. The Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, reaching $7.7 trillion last week. 10-Year Treasury yields are consolidating below resistance at 1.75% but remain in an up-trend. Rising Treasury yields are driven by inflation expectations, with March\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38132,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/15\/bond-market-no-place-to-hide\/","url_meta":{"origin":14246,"position":5},"title":"Bond market: No place to hide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Advance retail sales were flat in September, reflecting slowing growth, but remain well above their pre-pandemic trend. So far, Fed rate hikes have failed to make a dent in consumer spending. Even adjusted for inflation, real retail sales are well above the pre-pandemic trend. The culprit is M2 money supply.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-15-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14246\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}