{"id":14117,"date":"2016-09-13T04:10:32","date_gmt":"2016-09-13T08:10:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=14117"},"modified":"2016-09-13T04:10:32","modified_gmt":"2016-09-13T08:10:32","slug":"credit-bubbles-and-gdp-targeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/13\/credit-bubbles-and-gdp-targeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Credit bubbles and GDP targeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In 2010 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.themoneyillusion.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Scott Sumner<\/a> first proposed that the Fed use GDP targeting rather than targeting inflation, which is prone to measurement error. Since then support for this approach has grown, with Lars Christensen, an economist with the Danish central bank, coining the term Market Monetarism.<\/p>\n<p>Sumner holds that inflation is &#8220;measured inaccurately and does not discriminate between demand versus supply shocks&#8221; and that &#8220;Inflation often changes with a lag&#8230; but nominal GDP growth falls very quickly, so it&#8217;ll give you a more timely signal&#8230;.&#8221; [<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2011-04-10\/bank-of-england-should-replace-inflation-targeting-sumner-says\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg<\/a>]<\/p>\n<p>The ratio of US credit to GDP highlights credit bubbles in the economy. The ratio rises when credit is growing faster than GDP and falls when credit bubbles burst. The graph below compares credit growth\/GDP to actual GDP growth (on the right-hand scale). The red line illustrates a proposed GDP target at 5.0% growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"US Credit Growth &amp; GDP Targeting\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-09-13-gdp-targeting.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"US Credit Growth &amp; GDP Targeting\" \/><\/p>\n<p>What this shows is that the Fed would have adopted tighter monetary policies through most of the 1990s in order to keep GDP growth at the 5% target. That would have avoided the credit spike ahead of the Dotcom crash. More importantly, tighter monetary policy from 2003 to 2006 would have cut the last credit bubble off at the knees \u2014 avoiding the debacle we now face, with a massive spike in credit and declining GDP growth.<\/p>\n<p>While poor monetary policy may have caused the problem, correcting those policies is unlikely to rectify it. The genie has escaped from the bottle. The only viable solution now seems to be fiscal policy, with massive infrastructure investment to restore GDP growth. That may seem counter-intuitive as it means fighting fire with fire, increasing public debt in order to remedy ballooning private debt.<\/p>\n<p>Rising public debt is only sustainable if invested in productive infrastructure that yields market-related returns. Not in sports stadiums and public libraries. Difficult as this may be to achieve &#8212; with politicians poor history of selecting projects based on their ability to garner votes rather than economic criteria &#8212; it is our best bet. What is required is bi-partisan selection of projects and of private partners to construct and maintain the infrastructure. And private partners with enough skin in the game to enforce market discipline. I have discussed this at length <a href=\"https:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/2016\/08\/10\/big-government-doesnt-kill-growth\/#comment-39288\" target=\"_blank\">in earlier posts<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2010 Scott Sumner first proposed that the Fed use GDP targeting rather than targeting inflation, which is prone to measurement error. Since then support for this approach has grown, with Lars Christensen, an economist with the Danish central bank, coining the term Market Monetarism. Sumner holds that inflation is &#8220;measured inaccurately and does not &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/13\/credit-bubbles-and-gdp-targeting\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Credit bubbles and GDP targeting&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,13,34],"tags":[871,1531,2238],"class_list":["post-14117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-credit-bubbles","tag-gdp-targeting","tag-market-monetarism"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Credit bubbles and GDP targeting - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Credit bubbles and GDP targeting - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In 2010 Scott Sumner first proposed that the Fed use GDP targeting rather than targeting inflation, which is prone to measurement error. 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Sumner who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, made a suggestion in the late 1980s to the New York Federal Reserve. He proposed that the Fed set a target for nominal GDP\u2014real growth in GDP plus the rate of inflation. He felt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24659,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/27\/a-fed-with-no-fear-of-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":14117,"position":1},"title":"A Fed with no fear of inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 27, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Morgan Stanley\u2019s Ruchir Sharma wrote an excellent op-ed in the FT ....He identifies the major flaw of the current system of inflation targeting: namely that secular global deflationary forces have pushed CPI inflation well below their c.2% targets, resulting in super-stimulative monetary policy. And although that can do little to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/09\/12\/economic-research-bubbles-credit-and-their-consequences\/","url_meta":{"origin":14117,"position":2},"title":"Credit bubbles and their consequences","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting paper from the San Francisco Fed by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, VP Economic Research at the San Francisco Fed, Moritz Schularick, professor of economics at the University of Bonn, and Alan M. Taylor, professor of economics and finance at the University of California, Davis. They discuss the difficulty in identifying asset\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7732,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/12\/the-monetary-policy-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":14117,"position":3},"title":"The monetary policy revolution","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"James Alexander, head of Equity Research at UK-based M&G Equities, sums up the evolution of central bank thinking. He describes the traditional problem of inadequate response by central banks to market shocks like the collapse of Lehman Brothers: Although wages hold steady when nominal income falls, unemployment tends to rise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7004,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/16\/ngdp-level-targeting-the-true-free-market-alternative-we-try-again-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":14117,"position":4},"title":"NGDP level targeting \u2013 the true Free Market alternative (we try again) &#124; The Market Monetarist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Scott Sumner suggests that NGDP targeting is a far more conservative approach than the current inflation targeting practiced by the Fed and many other central banks: Most of the blogging Market Monetarists have their roots in a strong free market tradition and nearly all of us would probably describe ourselves\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5952,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/31\/should-the-fed-be-targeting-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":14117,"position":5},"title":"Why the Fed should not target inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Scott Sumner, Professor of Economics at Bentley University, proposes that the Fed target nominal growth in GDP (\"NGDP\") rather than inflation as Ben Bernanke has long advocated: \"Even he [Bernanke] must be surprised and disappointed with how poorly [inflation targeting] worked during the recent crisis.\" The primary problem, Sumner points\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}