{"id":13965,"date":"2016-08-13T21:23:29","date_gmt":"2016-08-14T01:23:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=13965"},"modified":"2016-08-13T21:23:29","modified_gmt":"2016-08-14T01:23:29","slug":"does-government-spending-create-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/13\/does-government-spending-create-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Government Spending Create Jobs?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By William Dupor, Assistant Vice President and Economist<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\nThe most recent U.S. expansion, however lackluster, entered its eighth year in June.1 In anticipation of the possibility (or perhaps inevitability) of another recession, observers have remarked on how and whether countercyclical fiscal policy should be used to combat an economic downturn&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2016\/august\/does-government-spending-create-jobs?&amp;utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=SM&amp;utm_term=fiscal&amp;utm_content=oteblog&amp;utm_campaign=8091_1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/blogimage_govtspendjobs_300px_080916-ts179125086.jpg?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gauging Effects through Military Spending<\/strong><br \/>\nResearch Analyst Rodrigo Guerrero and I took up the issue of the efficacy of government spending at increasing employment. We looked specifically at over 120 years of U.S. military spending, which provides a kind of &#8220;natural experiment&#8221; for our analysis.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at government spending more generally suffers from the problem that the spending may be correlated with economic activity: The government may spend more during a recession (as with ARRA) or more during an expansion (when tax revenues are high). This might bias the results, which economists call &#8220;an endogeneity bias.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Military spending, on the other hand, is likely to be determined primarily by international geopolitical factors rather than the nation&#8217;s business cycle.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.We used a similar methodology and found that military spending shocks had a small effect on civilian employment. Following a policy change that began when the unemployment rate was high, if government spending increased by 1 percent of GDP, then total employment increased by between 0 percent and 0.15 percent. Following a policy change that began when the unemployment rate was low, the effect on employment was even smaller.<\/p>\n<p>In the event of another recession, policymakers have a number of stabilization tools at their disposal, including quantitative easing, negative interest rates and tax relief. The research discussed above suggests that one other device, namely countercyclical government spending, may not be very effective, even when the economy is slack. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I think the authors of this research come to the wrong conclusion. Instead they should have concluded that <strong>military spending<\/strong> is not very effective in creating jobs.<\/p>\n<p>Military spending provides no lasting benefit to the economy in terms of tax revenue or saleable assets, leaving future taxpayers with public debt and no means of repayment. Other than an austerity budget which would risk another recession.<\/p>\n<p>Whereas infrastructure projects can be selected on their ability to generate market-related returns on investment, providing revenue to service the public debt incurred&#8230;..and saleable assets that can be used to repay debt. <\/p>\n<p>But there are two caveats. <\/p>\n<p>First, project selection must not be a political decision. Else projects likely to win votes will be selected ahead of those that generate decent financial returns.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the private sector must have <em>skin in the game<\/em> to ensure that #1 is adhered to. Also to reduce cost blowouts. Private companies are not immune to blowouts but government projects are in a league of their own.<\/p>\n<p>The added benefit of infrastructure spending is the <em>free lunch<\/em> government gets from reduced unemployment benefits. Money they would have spent anyway is now put to a more productive use.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2016\/august\/does-government-spending-create-jobs?&amp;utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=SM&amp;utm_term=fiscal&amp;utm_content=oteblog&amp;utm_campaign=8091_1\">Does Government Spending Create Jobs?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By William Dupor, Assistant Vice President and Economist The most recent U.S. expansion, however lackluster, entered its eighth year in June.1 In anticipation of the possibility (or perhaps inevitability) of another recession, observers have remarked on how and whether countercyclical fiscal policy should be used to combat an economic downturn&#8230;. Gauging Effects through Military Spending &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/13\/does-government-spending-create-jobs\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Does Government Spending Create Jobs?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,46,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-investment-infrastructure"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does Government Spending Create Jobs? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Does Government Spending Create Jobs? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By William Dupor, Assistant Vice President and Economist The most recent U.S. expansion, however lackluster, entered its eighth year in June.1 In anticipation of the possibility (or perhaps inevitability) of another recession, observers have remarked on how and whether countercyclical fiscal policy should be used to combat an economic downturn&#8230;. 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I am not an economist and will try to avoid any jargon. The basic tenet of MMT is that government has the power to reduce unemployment by increasing stimulus spending. Government spending in excess of tax revenues (a deficit) is funded by an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4983,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/30\/federal-spending-cutbacks-slow-recovery-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":13965,"position":2},"title":"Federal Spending Cutbacks Slow Recovery &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 30, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"BEN CASSELMAN and CONOR DOUGHERTY: Recent economic data show that long before the fiscal cliff hits, federal spending already is falling -- and taking a toll on the recovery.......State and local governments are projected to receive $20.8 billion in federal stimulus funds in the 2012 fiscal year, ending in September,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5500,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/18\/this-is-no-way-to-run-a-government-gates-the-fiscal-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":13965,"position":3},"title":"\u201cThis is No Way to Run a Government!\u201d \u2013 Gates &#124; The Fiscal Times","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"By JOSH BOAK Nothing has stumped Gates [former Secretary of Defense and CIA director Bob Gates -- who served eight of the last nine presidents], who oversaw the $700 billion military budget until last year, quite like the country's current Congressional gridlock and the government's ineffective efforts to stop runaway\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":869,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/20\/short-term-stimulus-wont-help-u-s-in-long-run-glenn-hubbard-bloomberg\/","url_meta":{"origin":13965,"position":4},"title":"Short-Term Stimulus Won\u2019t Help U.S. in Long Run: Glenn Hubbard &#8211; Bloomberg","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The president\u2019s announced jobs plan centers on the need for additional short-term stimulus designed to boost aggregate demand and jump-start economic growth. In some recession scenarios, such action, if timely, can indeed raise output and employment. In our current state, however, calling for additional spending and temporary tax relief without\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22504,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/07\/asx-and-the-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":13965,"position":5},"title":"ASX and the long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6200 but declining Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. There is a lot of \"noise\" in the market at present -- due to COVID-19 easing, government stimulus, RBA rate cuts and political turmoil in the USA -- so we are wary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13965\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}