{"id":13805,"date":"2016-03-17T10:21:22","date_gmt":"2016-03-17T10:21:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1376"},"modified":"2016-03-17T10:21:22","modified_gmt":"2016-03-17T10:21:22","slug":"crude-oil-and-buybacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/17\/crude-oil-and-buybacks\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil and buybacks"},"content":{"rendered":"

At present, stock prices are heavily influenced by the price of crude oil. Whichever direction crude takes, stocks are likely to follow. The current rally in Light Crude (June 2016 Futures) is testing resistance at $42\/barrel. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at $32. Breach of $32 would offer a target of $22\/barrel* but we are more likely to see further consolidation (between $32 and $42) first.<\/p>\n

\"WTI<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 32 – ( 42 – 32 ) = 22<\/p>\n

Another major factor influencing prices is corporate buybacks. Lu Wang at Bloomberg<\/a> points out that inflows\/outflows from managed funds are dwarfed by repurchases:<\/p>\n

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index constituents are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007. The buying contrasts with rampant selling by clients of mutual and exchange-traded funds, who after pulling $40 billion since January are on pace for one of the biggest quarterly withdrawals ever.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Corporate<\/p>\n

Of more concern is that we are approaching the March quarter-end. Repurchases are expected to fall dramatically in April<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Global<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Global Index continues to test resistance at 300 and the descending trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum continues to flag a strong primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is likely and reversal below 290 would warn of another decline. Breach of 270 would confirm. Penetration of the descending trendline, however, would warn that the down-trend is losing momentum and a bottom is forming.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 270 – ( 300 – 270 ) = 240<\/p>\n

North America<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2000 and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of short-term support at 2100 would indicate a rally to 2100. But I remain wary of this rally.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

A look at the monthly chart explains why. Respect of 2100, or even a feint (false break) above the previous high of 2170 would keep the weight on the sell side (an outgoing tide). Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2100 – 1900 ) = 1700<\/p>\n

A CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) peak below 20 indicates that (short-term) market risk has eased. But our longer-term risk measures continue to warn of elevated risk.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at 800. Expect stubborn resistance at the former primary support level. A correction to test support at 700 is likely. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would indicate that the primary down-trend has ended. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. A higher trough on the next correction would be a bullish sign.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 found resistance at 3100 but bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests that a test of 3300 is likely. The primary trend remains down and a lower peak, followed by reversal below 3000, would warn of decline to 2500*.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3500 – 3000 ) = 2500<\/p>\n

Germany’s DAX is similarly testing resistance at 10000. Breakout would indicate an advance to 11000. Buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary. Reversal below 9300 would warn of another decline.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 9500 – ( 11000 – 9500 ) = 8000<\/p>\n

The Footsie found stronger than expected resistance at 6250. Reversal below 6000 would warn of another test of 5500. Breach of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. A higher trough would favor a reversal. While a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would strengthen the signal.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 6000 – ( 6500 – 6000 ) = 5500<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating in a narrow range between 2700 and 2900, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 2400<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index encountered stubborn resistance at 17000. Respect would warn of another test of 15000, while breakout would be likely to encounter further resistance at 18000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero is encouraging but I expect the primary down-trend is far from over.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 17000 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 25000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects strong (medium-term) buying pressure. Narrow consolidation below resistance suggests breakout is likely, which would test the upper trend channel at 26000. Respect of the trend channel is likely and would warn of another test of 22500*.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 27500 – 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5150 and the descending trendline. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. This is a bear market and respect of resistance is likely to warn of another decline. Penetration of the descending trendline, however, would warn that a bottom is forming. Reversal below 5000 is likely and would warn of another test of 4700, while breach of 4700 would offer a target of 4400*.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 4800 – ( 5200 – 4800 ) = 4400<\/p>\n

The Banks Index is also testing its descending trendline. Respect is likely and would warn of another decline. Penetration would again suggest that a bottom is forming.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At present, stock prices are heavily influenced by the price of crude oil. Whichever direction crude takes, stocks are likely to follow. The current rally in Light Crude (June 2016 Futures) is testing resistance at $42\/barrel. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at $32. Breach of $32 would offer a target of … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Crude oil and buybacks”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,261,947,1103,1106,1113,1481,2105,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-asx-300-banks-index","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-euro-stoxx-50","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-light-crude","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"\nCrude oil and buybacks - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude oil and buybacks - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At present, stock prices are heavily influenced by the price of crude oil. Whichever direction crude takes, stocks are likely to follow. The current rally in Light Crude (June 2016 Futures) is testing resistance at $42\/barrel. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at $32. 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Crude oil prices are the canary in the coalmine at present. June 2016 Light Crude futures retreated from resistance at $43\/barrel. Breach of medium-term support at $38 warns of another test of primary support at $32\/barrel. Failure of support at $32 would offer a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-04-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-04-04-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-04-04-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":33138,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/19\/bear-market-and-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":13805,"position":1},"title":"Bear market and recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 19, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 32K, strengthening the primary down-trend. Dow Jones Transportation Average broke primary support at 14K, confirming a bear market in terms of classic Dow Theory. The S&P 500 closed below primary support at 4000, providing further confirmation. The Nasdaq 100 likewise broke primary support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "UK & Europe"","block_context":{"text":"UK & Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-dow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8133,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/18\/crude-rallies-while-gold-and-commodities-stall\/","url_meta":{"origin":13805,"position":2},"title":"Crude rallies while gold and commodities stall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1300 -- a bullish sign. Upward breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting a bottom is forming.\u00a0 Reversal below $1270, however, would indicate another test of $1200. Failure of support at $1200 would offer a medium-term target of $1100*. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8160,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/24\/gold-rises-as-the-dollar-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":13805,"position":3},"title":"Gold rises as the dollar falls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke resistance at $1300\/ounce, penetration of the descending trendline indicating that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200. Respect of support at $1300 and breakout above $1350 is unlikely, but would target $1400. Dollar Index The Dollar Index is headed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12552,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/23\/crude-futures-target-32barrel\/","url_meta":{"origin":13805,"position":4},"title":"Crude futures target $32\/barrel","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude futures (Light Crude March 2016 - CLH2016) are consolidating in a narrow band below the former support level at $45\/barrel. Breach of $43 is likely and would indicate a test of the August low at $41.20. Follow-through below $41 would warn of another decline, with a target of $32\/barrel*.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-24-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-24-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-24-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/08\/28\/commodities-rise-as-the-dollar-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":13805,"position":5},"title":"Commodities rise as the Dollar falls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 28, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Dollar Index The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend and breach of support at 80.50 would confirm. Respect of support and recovery above 82, however, would indicate an up-swing to 84.50. Crude Oil Nymex WTI light crude\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}