{"id":13804,"date":"2016-02-13T09:38:39","date_gmt":"2016-02-13T09:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1312"},"modified":"2016-02-13T09:38:39","modified_gmt":"2016-02-13T09:38:39","slug":"china-goes-all-in-on-the-yuan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/13\/china-goes-all-in-on-the-yuan\/","title":{"rendered":"China goes all-in on the Yuan"},"content":{"rendered":"

China is betting that it can use its more than $3 Trillion of foreign reserves to stare down hedge funds betting on a collapse of the Yuan. Any sign of weakness in the Yuan would fuel further speculation and flight to safety. The caterpillar<\/i> on the right of the daily chart reflects PBOC efforts to support the Yuan (prevent further appreciation of USDCNY).<\/p>\n

\"USDCNY\"<\/p>\n

But you need plenty of bikkies (chips) to stand firm against the market and China is depleting its foreign reserves to buy up Yuan. IMF figures to September last year show a substantial fall in foreign reserves (excluding gold) but the pace has accelerated and I suspect China must now be close to the $3 Trillion mark (from a high of $4.0T in June 2014).<\/p>\n

\"China<\/p>\n

China’s sell-off of foreign reserves has had an unusual impact: in the midst of a flight to safety, the Dollar is falling. Sell-off by the PBOC is driving the Dollar Index lower. Good news for US exporters (and manufacturers competing against imports) who would have been crucified by a rising Dollar.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Flight to safety not only led to a sell-off in the Yuan but has spiked demand for Gold. If you can’t get your capital out of China to buy real estate in Vancouver or Sydney then the next best alternative is to buy gold. Spot metal prices brushed aside expected long-term resistance at $1200\/ounce, reaching highs of $1250. Expect some retracement, but gold should find support at $1200. Completion of a higher trough would confirm a primary trend reversal.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Global stocks<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Global Index respected resistance at the former primary support level of 290. Breach of 270 would confirm another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero flag a strong primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 320 – 290 ) = 260<\/p>\n

Dow Jones Industrial Average is hammering primary support at 16000 but long tails on weekly candles (and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow) highlight committed buying. Expect another bear rally next week, but the weight of the market is on the sell side and is unlikely to change course. Breach of 16000 offers a target of 14000*.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 16000 – ( 18000 – 16000 ) = 14000<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 also rallied Friday and recovery above 1850 suggests another test of 1900\/1950. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal of the primary trend is unlikely and breach of support at 1850 would confirm a decline to 1700*.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2100 – 1900 ) = 1700<\/p>\n

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to range between 20 and 30, reflecting elevated risk.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

U.S. equity and options markets will be closed on Monday, February 15, 2016, in observance of Presidents’ Day.<\/p>\n

<!– <\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 also retraced to test resistance at 750. Respect is likely and breach of 700 would offer a target of 650*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 700 – ( 750 – 700 ) = 650<\/p>\n

–><\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Europe index continues its primary down-trend. Breach of support at 260 would signal another decline. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms a strong down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

<!– <\/p>\n

Germany’s DAX is testing primary support at 9500. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 9300 would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 9500 – ( 11500 – 9500 ) = 7500<\/p>\n

The Footsie retreated below 6000, signaling a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero further strengthen the signal. Long-term target for a decline is 5000*.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 6000 – ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 5000<\/p>\n

–><\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

Dow Jones Asia breached support at 2400 confirming another decline. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms a strong down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

<!– <\/p>\n

Support has given way on the Shanghai Composite Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 2400*.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 2400<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is testing primary support at 17000. Breach is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 94 – ( 106 – 94 ) = 82<\/p>\n

Two failed swings on India’s Sensex (failing to reach the upper trend channel) warn of increasing selling pressure. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero confirm this. Follow-through below 24000 would offer a target of 22500*.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 27500 – 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n

–><\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 broke support at 4900 this week, confirming a (primary) decline. There are still buyers hoping for a reversal — illustrated by bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (indicates medium-term buying pressure) — but the weight of the bear market is against them. Expect a test of support at 4600 in the next few weeks but the long-term target is 4000*.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 4850 – ( 5050 – 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n

Banks are taking a hammering, breach of 75.00\/76.00 signaling a decline to 66.00*. Now is not the time to go bargain-hunting. What looks cheap today may be even cheaper tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 7600 – ( 8600 – 7600 ) = 6600<\/p>\n

\n

\nThe only sound reason for buying a stock is that it is rising in price. If that is happening, no other reason is required. If that is not happening, no other reason is worth considering.\n<\/p>\n

~ Nicholas Darvas<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China is betting that it can use its more than $3 Trillion of foreign reserves to stare down hedge funds betting on a collapse of the Yuan. Any sign of weakness in the Yuan would fuel further speculation and flight to safety. The caterpillar on the right of the daily chart reflects PBOC efforts to … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China goes all-in on the Yuan”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,1073,1106,1113,1578,3010,3574,3731],"class_list":["post-13804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-gold-2","tag-sp-500","tag-usdcny","tag-yuan"],"yoast_head":"\nChina goes all-in on the Yuan - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China goes all-in on the Yuan - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China is betting that it can use its more than $3 Trillion of foreign reserves to stare down hedge funds betting on a collapse of the Yuan. 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But the Yuan continues to sink against the US Dollar. When people don't have a say in how the country is run, their capital tends to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12858,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/18\/gold-pboc-makes-its-move\/","url_meta":{"origin":13804,"position":1},"title":"Gold: PBOC makes its move","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"China's PBOC made its move against the hedge funds on Monday, while many hedge fund managers were enjoying a long weekend in the Hamptons. With more than $3 Trillion of foreign reserves, this is a fight that the PBOC is likely to win, provided it stands firm. Hedge funds betting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDCNY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-18-usdcny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-18-usdcny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-18-usdcny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/04\/gold-rallies-but-how-long\/","url_meta":{"origin":13804,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies but how long?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 4, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"We are witnessing a flight to safety as money flows out of stocks and into bonds, driving 10-year Treasury yields as low as 1.88 percent. Breach of support at 2.0 percent suggests that another test of primary support at 1.5 percent lies ahead. What makes this even more significant is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14859,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/24\/gold-breaks-through-1250\/","url_meta":{"origin":13804,"position":3},"title":"Gold breaks through $1250","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 24, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury Yields are testing support at 2.30%. Expect this to hold. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a correction but this seems unlikely with the Fed intent on normalizing interest rates. Breakout above 2.50% would offer a target of 3.0%. The Dollar Index rally remains muted since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14025,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/08\/26\/gold-rising-interest-rates-and-the-falling-yuan\/","url_meta":{"origin":13804,"position":4},"title":"Gold, rising interest rates and the falling Yuan","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 26, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Interest rates are rising. Upward breakout from an ascending triangle formation on 10-year Treasury yields indicates an up-trend. A rate hike from the Fed would increase pressure on the Chinese Yuan, leaving the PBOC with a dilemma. Either allow the Yuan to slide, which could panic investors and borrowers into\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16888,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/08\/24\/support-for-the-yuan-lifts-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":13804,"position":5},"title":"Support for the Yuan lifts Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"China's PBOC stepped in with belated support for the Yuan, holding the line at 14.5 US cents. The Dollar retreated, with the Dollar Index testing support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103 \u2014 if central banks like the Fed and PBOC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Aussie dollar"","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13804\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}