{"id":13803,"date":"2016-02-09T09:37:00","date_gmt":"2016-02-09T09:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1310"},"modified":"2016-02-09T09:37:00","modified_gmt":"2016-02-09T09:37:00","slug":"batten-down-the-hatches-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches-2-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Batten down the hatches"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Batten down the hatches, the storm is here.<\/p>\n<p>Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"445\" alt=\"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures\" title=\"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C445&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 30 &#8211; ( 40 &#8211; 30 ) = 20<\/p>\n<p>Long-term interest rates are falling, with 10-year Treasury yields headed for another test of primary support at 1.5 percent. Breach of 1.7 percent would confirm. The flight from stocks is driving up Treasuries (and yields lower).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Flight to safety is (normally) synonymous with a strong Dollar, so the weakening Dollar Index is a surprise.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>China must be selling off Dollar reserves to support the Yuan and restore confidence.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"USDCNY\" title=\"USDCNY\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-cny.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Too late, I&#8217;m afraid. That horse has bolted. Loss of confidence in the Yuan is driving demand for gold, with the spot metal rallying to $1200 per ounce. Resistance at the former support level makes retracement likely, but a trough that respects $1100 or narrow consolidation below $1200 would suggest reversal (to an up-trend). Breach of $1200 would offer a target of $1300*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 + ( 1200 &#8211; 1100 ) = 1300<\/p>\n<p>After forming a lower peak at 18000, Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 16000. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of 14000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" title=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-dow.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 16000 &#8211; ( 18000 &#8211; 16000 ) = 14000<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 displays a similar pattern, testing primary support at 1850, with a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero. Breach of support would offer a target of 1500*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1850 &#8211; ( 2150 &#8211; 1850 ) = 1550<\/p>\n<p>A monthly chart shows VIX rising for another test of 30. Oscillation between 20 and 30 flags elevated market risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" title=\"CBOE Volatility Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Australia&#8217;s ASX 200 retreated below primary support at 5000, signaling a primary down-trend. A 13-week Twiggs peak below zero already warns of a decline. Close below 4900 would confirm, offering a short-term target of 4600* and a long-term target of 4000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"ASX 200 Index\" title=\"ASX 200 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 4850 &#8211; ( 5050 &#8211; 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 &#8211; ( 6000 &#8211; 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n<p>Investors who plan to hold stocks through a possible down-turn should stop watching daily prices and listening to news reports. It will only weaken your resolve. I am comfortable with holding stocks with strong dividend streams, but wary of holding growth stocks as they normally suffer the biggest losses.<\/p>\n<p>For traders this is a time of dangerous opportunity. Either shorting sectors likely to be worst hit or waiting for opportunities to buy gold stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Northern Star (NST)\" title=\"Northern Star (NST)\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-nst.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>\nOnly when the tide goes out do you discover who&#8217;s been swimming naked.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n~ Warren Buffett\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 &#8211; ( 40 &#8211; 30 ) = 20 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches-2-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Batten down the hatches&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1106,1113,1481,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Batten down the hatches - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Batten down the hatches - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. 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There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 - ( 40\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1305,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/09\/batten-down-the-hatches-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13803,"position":1},"title":"Batten down the hatches","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 9, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Batten down the hatches, the storm is here. Nymex WTI Light Crude futures (March 2016) are testing support at $30 per barrel. There is no indication that this is the bottom and breach of $30 would be likely to test $20 per barrel. * Target calculation: 30 - ( 40\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude March 2016 Futures","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-09-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8452,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/18\/gold-eases-as-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":13803,"position":2},"title":"Gold eases as bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold encountered short-term support at $1300\/ounce, but the correction is far from over. A rally would be likely to encounter resistance at $1350, while failure would test $1275. Respect of $1275 would be bullish, but the primary trend is downward and another test of support at $1200 remains likely.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8590,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/10\/commodity-prices-bullish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":13803,"position":3},"title":"Commodity prices: bullish divergence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 10, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodity prices continue to display weakness, with a tall shadow on the latest Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index weekly candle. But the Shanghai Composite Index is strengthening and bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a reversal. Recovery above 130 would signal a primary up-trend. Rising commodity prices would be good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7812,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/30\/gold-two-elephants-in-a-lifeboat\/","url_meta":{"origin":13803,"position":4},"title":"Gold: Two elephants in a lifeboat","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 30, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"There are currently two players destabilizing global financial markets -- like elephants in a lifeboat. One is the Bank of Japan, with markets uncertain as to how massive expansion of the monetary base will play out. The second is the Fed, where hints of a taper were enough to send\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12788,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/20\/dow-breaks-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":13803,"position":5},"title":"Dow breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}