{"id":13799,"date":"2016-01-29T11:00:01","date_gmt":"2016-01-29T11:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1300"},"modified":"2016-01-29T11:00:01","modified_gmt":"2016-01-29T11:00:01","slug":"brief-retracement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/29\/brief-retracement\/","title":{"rendered":"Brief retracement"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My newsletters on <a href=\"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/the-gathering-storm\/\">December 10th<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/china-storm\/\">January 14th<\/a> warned of the approaching storm across global markets. <a href=\"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/dow-breaks-support\/\">Last week<\/a> the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Buyers remain present in numbers, however, and this week we have observed a test of new resistance levels. But the weight of the market has shifted to the sell side and a successful breakout is unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Global Index retraced to test resistance at 290. Respect is likely and would suggest another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to indicate a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Global Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Global Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djwo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 290 &#8211; ( 320 &#8211; 290 ) = 260<\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above 16000 but follow-through above the previous week&#8217;s high at 16600 is unlikely. Reversal below 16000 would signal another decline, with a target of 14000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of long-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-dow.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 16000 &#8211; ( 18000 &#8211; 16000 ) = 14000<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating around 1900. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term buying pressure. Upward breakout is unlikely and reversal below 1860 would signal another decline, with a (medium-term) target of 1700*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1900 &#8211; ( 2100 &#8211; 1900 ) = 1700<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) oscillating between 20 and 30 reflects a &#8220;vigilant&#8221; market that would react quickly to bad news. A prolonged period of stability would be needed to restore calm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Canada&#8217;s TSX 60 is retracing to test resistance at 750. The primary down-trend, which commenced with breach of 800, is well under way and respect of resistance is likely. Breach of 700 would indicate another decline, with a target of 600*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"TSX 60 Index\" alt=\"TSX 60 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-tsx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 700 &#8211; ( 800 &#8211; 700 ) = 600<\/p>\n<h2>Europe<\/h2>\n<p>Dow Jones Germany Index is retracing to test resistance at 350. Respect is likely and reversal below 325 would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Germany Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Germany Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djde.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 330 &#8211; ( 390 &#8211; 330 ) = 270<\/p>\n<p>The Footsie is retracing to test resistance at 6000. Respect would further strengthen the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero. Target for another decline is 5000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"FTSE 100\" alt=\"FTSE 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-ftse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 6000 &#8211; ( 7000 &#8211; 6000 ) = 5000<\/p>\n<h2>Asia<\/h2>\n<p>Support has given way on the Dow Jones Shanghai Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 300*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Shanghai Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Shanghai Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djsh.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 400 &#8211; ( 500 &#8211; 400 ) = 300<\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Japan Index continues to test primary support at 90. Breach would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Japan Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Japan Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djjp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 94 &#8211; ( 106 &#8211; 94 ) = 82<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Sensex is testing the bottom of the trend channel at 24000. Expect retracement to test long-term resistance at 26000. Respect is likely and would suggest another test of the lower channel border.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"SENSEX\" alt=\"SENSEX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-bse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 26500 &#8211; ( 30000 &#8211; 26500 ) = 23000<\/p>\n<h2>Australia<\/h2>\n<p>Having breached primary support at 5000, the ASX 200 has shown surprising resilience, retracing to test the new resistance level. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. But the weight of the global bear market is likely to ensure that any attempted rally fails and reversal below 4900 would confirm another decline. Target for the decline is 4600 (medium-term), or 4000* in the long-term.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5000 &#8211; ( 6000 &#8211; 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"qtn\">\n<p>\nOf course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn&#8217;t go into explanations. The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now &#8211; not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left.\n<\/p>\n<p>~ Jesse Livermore<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Buyers remain present in numbers, however, and this week we have observed a test of new resistance levels. But the weight of the market &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/29\/brief-retracement\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Brief retracement&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1106,1113,1481,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brief retracement - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brief retracement - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Buyers remain present in numbers, however, and this week we have observed a test of new resistance levels. 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