{"id":13798,"date":"2015-11-12T02:09:39","date_gmt":"2015-11-12T02:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1296"},"modified":"2015-11-12T02:09:39","modified_gmt":"2015-11-12T02:09:39","slug":"watch-out-for-the-caboose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/12\/watch-out-for-the-caboose\/","title":{"rendered":"Watch out for the caboose"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Markets remain tentative and we continue to limit our exposure to roughly 50% of portfolio value. The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides.<\/p>\n<h2>North America<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 encountered moderate resistance at the previous high of 2130. Retracement is mild and looks promising for the next attempt at 2130. Decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow is gradual, indicating light selling pressure. Breakout above 2130 would signal a fresh primary advance. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2130 + ( 2130 &#8211; 1870 ) = 2390<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates market risk is easing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nyxdata.com\/Data-Products\/NYSE-Volume-Summary\">NYSE short sales<\/a> remain subdued.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"381\" title=\"NYSE Short Sales\" alt=\"NYSE Short Sales\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-nyse-shortsales.png?resize=525%2C381&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A long-term chart shows the Nasdaq 100 testing its March 2000 high of 4800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate selling pressure but the pattern appears secondary in nature and recovery above the declining trendline would suggest a breakout.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nasdaq 100\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-ndx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Canada&#8217;s TSX 60 reversed below 800, warning of another decline. Failure of 775 would strengthen the signal. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at -5% is a strong bear signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"TSX 60 Index\" alt=\"TSX 60 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-tsx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 775 &#8211; ( 825 &#8211; 775 ) = 725<\/p>\n<h2>Europe<\/h2>\n<p>Germany&#8217;s DAX continues to test resistance at 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 11000 and the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 12400. Respect is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DAX\" alt=\"DAX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-dax.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Footsie is weakening, having respected resistance at 6500. A sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of 6250 would warn of another test of primary support at 6000. Breakout above 6500 is less likely, but would suggest another test of 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"FTSE 100\" alt=\"FTSE 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-ftse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Asia<\/h2>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 3500 and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. It would be prudent to wait for a higher trough before interpreting this as a reversal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Shanghai Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Shanghai Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 19000. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would confirm another test of 21000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" alt=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-n225.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 &#8211; 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Sensex fell through the former band of primary support at 26000\/26500. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero continue to indicate long-term buying pressure, but failure to recover above 26500 in the short-term would be a strong bear signal. Follow-through below 25000 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"SENSEX\" alt=\"SENSEX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-bse.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 25000 &#8211; ( 27500 &#8211; 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n<h2>Australia<\/h2>\n<p>The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 5150, warning of another test of primary support at 5000. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong support at 5000. Breach of 5000 is unlikely at this stage, but would warn of a (long-term) decline to 4000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-12-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5000 &#8211; ( 6000 &#8211; 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets remain tentative and we continue to limit our exposure to roughly 50% of portfolio value. The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides. North America The S&amp;P 500 encountered moderate resistance &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/12\/watch-out-for-the-caboose\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Watch out for the caboose&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1481,2401,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-ftse-100","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Watch out for the caboose - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Watch out for the caboose - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets remain tentative and we continue to limit our exposure to roughly 50% of portfolio value. The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides. 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Lower 21-day Twiggs Money Flow likewise indicates a lack of enthusiasm. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Expect strong resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/24\/transports-deflate\/","url_meta":{"origin":13798,"position":1},"title":"Transports deflate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at $164 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of $164 would signal a primary down-trend \u2014 a warning that economic activity is contracting. The LoDI National Index from University of Louisville and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nasdaq 100","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1229,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/14\/bear-market-brief-respite\/","url_meta":{"origin":13798,"position":2},"title":"Bear market &#8211; brief respite","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"North America The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 2000. Failure would warn of another test of support at 1870, while respect would indicate continuation of the bear rally to test resistance at the high of 2130. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates (medium-term) buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-14-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/19\/cement-and-electricity-not-there-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":13798,"position":3},"title":"Cement and electricity &#8211; not there yet","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Buying looks a lot more robust than last week and more US-led gains are likely. Electricity & Cement Production An examination of electricity and cement production shows the US recovery has plenty of scope for further improvement. Cement production recovered from its dramatic fall in 2008 but remains at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Cement Production","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-19-cement.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/bear-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":13798,"position":4},"title":"Bear Rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"North America Construction activity continues to advance. The graph below shows Total US Construction Spending adjusted for inflation (Core CPI). Spending is substantially below the 2004 to 2007 property bubble but equates to the earlier Dotcom era. The steep rise suggests that rate increases will be necessary to prevent another\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Construction Spending adjusted by Core CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-08-construction.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13795,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/03\/nasdaq-bearish-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":13798,"position":5},"title":"Nasdaq bearish divergence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 3, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 found resistance at 2100, indicating a continued lack of enthusiasm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow flags medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 2000 would warn of another test of primary support at 1870. Upward breakout now appears less likely, but would signal a fresh advance to 2400*. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-12-03-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}