{"id":13796,"date":"2015-11-19T02:04:19","date_gmt":"2015-11-19T02:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1292"},"modified":"2015-11-19T02:04:19","modified_gmt":"2015-11-19T02:04:19","slug":"cement-and-electricity-not-there-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/19\/cement-and-electricity-not-there-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Cement and electricity – not there yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Buying looks a lot more robust than last week and more US-led gains are likely.<\/p>\n

Electricity & Cement Production<\/h2>\n

An examination of electricity and cement production shows the US recovery has plenty of scope for further improvement. Cement production recovered from its dramatic fall in 2008 but remains at the bottom end of the normal range of 120 to 160.<\/p>\n

\"Cement<\/p>\n

Construction activity is recovering but is a long way below the over-heated levels of 2006. Figures on the graph below are adjusted for CPI.<\/p>\n

\"Construction<\/p>\n

Electricity production remains stalled at 2008 levels. Severity of the Great Recession should ensure that low growth endures for longer than the last period of stagnation in the early 1980s.<\/p>\n

\"Electricity<\/p>\n

GDP may have resumed its long-term up-trend but it would be reassuring to see this supported by growing electricity output. Only when growth is restored can we say the economy is fully mended.<\/p>\n

\"Electricity<\/p>\n

North America<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 posted two strong blue candles suggesting that the correction is now over. Expect resistance at the previous high of 2130. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate healthy buying pressure. Breakout above 2130 would signal a fresh advance, with a target of 2400*. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2130 + ( 2130 – 1870 ) = 2390<\/p>\n

A CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) peak at 20 indicates market risk is returning to normal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

NYSE short sales<\/a> remain subdued.<\/p>\n

The Nasdaq 100 is testing its March 2000 high at 4800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate selling pressure but the pattern appears secondary in nature and recovery above the declining trendline would suggest a breakout, offering a target of 5800*.<\/p>\n

\"Nasdaq<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 4800 + ( 4800 – 3800 ) = 5800<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 765, suggesting another attempt at 825. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero (-5%) remains a strong bear signal. Failure of support at 765 would confirm the primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 775 – ( 825 – 775 ) = 725<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX continues to test resistance at 11000. Troughs on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 11000 and the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 12400. Respect is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9400\/9500.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie is a lot weaker, only finding support at 6100. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating below zero indicates persistent selling pressure. Reversal below 6250 would warn of another test of primary support at 6000. Breakout above 6500 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of 7000.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index is testing its new support level at 3500. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates moderate selling pressure. Breach of 3500 would signal another test of 3000.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 respected support at 19000, confirming another test of resistance at 21000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex broke the band of primary support at 26000\/26500 but is edging lower in a trend channel, rather than a dramatic fall. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of rising selling pressure; a trough at zero would suggest buying pressure. Recovery above the upper channel at 27500 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a bear trap.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 25000 – ( 27500 – 25000 ) = 22500<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 respected primary support at 5000, suggesting another test of 5400. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breach of 5000 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a (long-term) decline to 4000*.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Buying looks a lot more robust than last week and more US-led gains are likely. Electricity & Cement Production An examination of electricity and cement production shows the US recovery has plenty of scope for further improvement. Cement production recovered from its dramatic fall in 2008 but remains at the bottom end of the normal … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Cement and electricity – not there yet”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1481,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"\nCement and electricity - not there yet - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cement and electricity - not there yet - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Buying looks a lot more robust than last week and more US-led gains are likely. 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Try again. Chinese cement production. (From Capital Economics this AM) pic.twitter.com\/k5W7pdRR2c\u2014 A Evans-Pritchard (@AmbroseEP) May 13, 2015 Lowest cement production in more than 10 years reflects the decline in infrastructure investment. Not good news for Australian resources stocks. Where cement production goes, iron ore and coal are likely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12790,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/20\/electricity-production-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":13796,"position":1},"title":"Electricity production falling","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"In November I observed that US electricity production had remained stagnant since 2008. Basically, manufacturing had stalled. The December 2015 decline to 95 shows a far more worrying event: manufacturing is now shrinking. Decline of the ISM Manufacturing PMI Composite Index below 50 tends to bear this out. But a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Electricity Production Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-electricity.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-electricity.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-21-electricity.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15665,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/08\/04\/china-holds-its-head-above-water\/","url_meta":{"origin":13796,"position":2},"title":"China holds its head above water","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 4, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A quick snapshot from the latest RBA chart pack. Manufacturing is holding its head above water (50 on the PMI chart) and industrial production shows a small upturn but investment growth is falling, as in many global economies including the US and Australia. Retail sales growth has declined but remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12874,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/22\/sp-500-still-flaky\/","url_meta":{"origin":13796,"position":3},"title":"S&P 500 still flaky","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 22, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Howard Silverblatt at S&P Indices: \"With almost 90% of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 67.6% of the issues are beating estimates (the historical rate is two-thirds), but only 36.8% beat As Reported GAAP rule based earnings estimates and less than half, 46.8%, beat sales estimates. Explained \u2018responsibility\u2019 for any\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 EPS","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-22-spx-eps.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15597,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/14\/us-retail-light-vehicle-sales-slow\/","url_meta":{"origin":13796,"position":4},"title":"US Retail & Light Vehicle Sales slow","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Retail sales growth (excluding motor vehicles and parts) slowed to 2.4% over the 12 months to June 2017. Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census Seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales are also slowing. Source: St Louis Fed & BEA Seasonally adjusted private housing starts and new building\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":25510,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/28\/manufacturing-l-shaped-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":13796,"position":5},"title":"Manufacturing L-shaped recovery","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 28, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"March durable goods production came in at close to the 2019 high. The index at 120.8 is a similar level to the years preceding the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). [Annual percentage growth results look spectacular but that is only because of the sharp fall in March 2020.] But construction\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13796\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}