{"id":13794,"date":"2016-01-14T01:53:29","date_gmt":"2016-01-14T01:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1285"},"modified":"2016-01-14T01:53:29","modified_gmt":"2016-01-14T01:53:29","slug":"china-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/14\/china-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"China storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

My newsletter on December 10th<\/a>, warned of The Gathering Storm<\/i> across global markets. A month later, concern over China is sapping investor confidence. Several exchanges signal a primary down-trend and more are approaching the tipping point.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones Global Index broke primary support at 300, warning of a decline to 260*. Follow-through below 290 confirms the signal — and a primary down-trend. A 6-month Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 300 – ( 340 – 300 ) = 260<\/p>\n

North America<\/h2>\n

Declining profit margins proved a reliable indicator of recent recessions. The 10% year-on-year decline in Q3 is an early warning. Data for Q4 2015 is not yet available. A year-on-year fall of 20% would suggest that recession is imminent.<\/p>\n

\"Profit<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of primary support at 1870. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1870 would confirm a primary down-trend. Respect of support is unlikely but would suggest another bear rally.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1900 – ( 2100 – 1900 ) = 1700<\/p>\n

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising. Breakout above 30 would warn of elevated risk.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 broke support at 750, confirming a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthen the bear signal. Target for the decline is 700*.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 900 – 800 ) = 700<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX is headed for a test of primary support at 9400. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a decline to 7500*.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 9500 – ( 11500 – 9500 ) = 7500<\/p>\n

The Footsie again breached 6000, warning of a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the signal. Follow-through below 5800 would confirm. Target for the decline is 5000*.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 6000 – ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 5000<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index crossed below 3000 for the first time since August. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 2900 would confirm another (primary) decline, with a target of 2400*.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 2400<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is back testing primary support at 17000. The peak at zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 17500 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex breached primary support at 25000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow peaks below zero indicate a primary down-trend. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 25000 but respect is likely. Target for the decline is 23000*.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 26500 – ( 30000 – 26500 ) = 23000<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 breached primary support at 5000, signaling another decline. Follow-through below 4900 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Target for a decline is 4600 (medium-term), or 4000* in the long-term.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My newsletter on December 10th, warned of The Gathering Storm across global markets. A month later, concern over China is sapping investor confidence. Several exchanges signal a primary down-trend and more are approaching the tipping point. The Dow Jones Global Index broke primary support at 300, warning of a decline to 260*. Follow-through below 290 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China storm”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1106,1481,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"\nChina storm - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China storm - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My newsletter on December 10th, warned of The Gathering Storm across global markets. 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Any sign of weakness in the Yuan would fuel further speculation and flight to safety. The caterpillar on the right of the daily\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDCNY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-13-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-13-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-13-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12836,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/04\/bears-threaten-us-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":13794,"position":3},"title":"Bears threaten US rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 4, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Rallies on the Dow and S&P 500 reflect a more positive outlook for the US economy. But the FTSE 100 has followed China's Shanghai Composite and India's SENSEX into bear territory, while Germany's DAX, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's ASX 200 threaten key support levels. There is very little to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-04-djw.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12895,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/risk-of-a-global-down-turn-remains-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":13794,"position":4},"title":"Risk of a global down-turn remains high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock markets in Asia and Europe have clearly tipped into a primary down-trend but the US remains tentative. The weight of the market is on the sell side and the risk of a global down-turn remains high. Dow Jones Global Index found support at 270 and is rallying to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2534,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/05\/china-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":13794,"position":5},"title":"China weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 5, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Shanghai Index respected resistance at 320 and is now testing support at 285. Failure would offer a target of 260*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero continues to signal a strong primary down-trend. * Target calculation: 290 - ( 320 - 290 ) = 260 DJ Hong Kong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13794\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}