{"id":13793,"date":"2015-12-10T01:51:26","date_gmt":"2015-12-10T01:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1283"},"modified":"2015-12-10T01:51:26","modified_gmt":"2015-12-10T01:51:26","slug":"the-gathering-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/10\/the-gathering-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"The gathering storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week I touched on the bearish divergence on the Nasdaq 100, warning of a reversal. This week we look at bearish signs on the Dow Jones Global Index, transport bellwether Fedex and a number of major indices outside the US and Japan.<\/p>\n

First, the Dow Jones Global Index. After a failed breakout in May, the index broke through primary support at 300, warning of a down-trend. The subsequent rally allayed fears but ran into resistance at 320. Reversal below 300 would strengthen the bear signal, while a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero (and or breach of 290) would confirm the (primary) down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"DJ<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 300 – ( 335 – 300 ) = 265<\/p>\n

North America<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of medium-term support at 2000. Peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow are healthy, but reversal (of the index) below support would put us back in bear territory. Breach of primary support at 1870 is unlikely but would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 2130 + ( 2130 – 1870 ) = 2390<\/p>\n

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 indicates market risk is subdued, but some macro indicators remain elevated. Breakout above 20 would warn that risk is again climbing.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Transport bellwether Fedex is falling. Breach of $140 would signal a decline to $115*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Fedex\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 140 – ( 165 – 140 ) = 115<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX 60 broke support at 765, confirming a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthen the bear signal. Target for the decline is 700*.<\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 900 – 800 ) = 700<\/p>\n

Europe<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX retreated below 11000, warning of a correction to test 10000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow peaks warn of selling pressure, but breach of primary support at 9300 remains unlikely.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

The Footsie broke medium-term support at 6250, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of 6000 is now likely and would signal a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

Asia<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite Index is again testing support at 3500. Reversal below 3300 would confirm another assault on primary support at 3000. I remain wary of China because of the high Debt to GDP ratio, the need to wean itself off investment stimulus, and impending rate rises in the US which could encourage further capital outflows. The PBOC has massive foreign currency reserves which act as a buffer, but these have already been depleted by half a trillion Dollars<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing for another test of medium-term support at 19000. Respect would confirm an advance to 21000. Breach of 19000 is less likely, but Japan is not impervious to an emerging markets crisis. Collapse of Asian markets would damage exports.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 – 17000 ) = 21000<\/p>\n

India’s Sensex is testing 25000. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would confirm a primary down-trend with an initial target of 23000*.<\/p>\n

\"SENSEX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 26500 – ( 30000 – 26500 ) = 23000<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The ASX 200 is testing primary support at 5000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates strong selling pressure. Breach is likely and would signal a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week I touched on the bearish divergence on the Nasdaq 100, warning of a reversal. This week we look at bearish signs on the Dow Jones Global Index, transport bellwether Fedex and a number of major indices outside the US and Japan. First, the Dow Jones Global Index. After a failed breakout in May, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The gathering storm”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,947,1106,1362,1481,2478,3010,3083,3100,3504],"class_list":["post-13793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-dax","tag-dow-jones-global-index","tag-fedex","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225","tag-sp-500","tag-sensex","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-tsx-60-index"],"yoast_head":"\nThe gathering storm - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The gathering storm - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last week I touched on the bearish divergence on the Nasdaq 100, warning of a reversal. This week we look at bearish signs on the Dow Jones Global Index, transport bellwether Fedex and a number of major indices outside the US and Japan. First, the Dow Jones Global Index. 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Retracement to 12300 and the rising trendline is likely. Respect would confirm the new up-trend, but a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18964,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/21\/the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\/","url_meta":{"origin":13793,"position":1},"title":"The canary in the coal mine","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is testing long-term support at 150. Peaks close to zero on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a decline with a long-term target of 100. Breach of LT support would also be a bearish sign for the US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/01\/29\/brief-retracement\/","url_meta":{"origin":13793,"position":2},"title":"Brief retracement","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 29, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Buyers remain present in numbers, however, and this week we have observed a test of new resistance levels. But\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djwo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djwo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-01-29-djwo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13800,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/risk-of-a-global-down-turn-remains-high-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":13793,"position":3},"title":"Risk of a global down-turn remains high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock markets in Asia and Europe have clearly tipped into a primary down-trend but the US remains tentative. The weight of the market is on the sell side and the risk of a global down-turn remains high. Dow Jones Global Index found support at 270 and is rallying to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8424,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/15\/dow-sp-500-selling-pressure-but-vix-bullish\/","url_meta":{"origin":13793,"position":4},"title":"Dow, S&P 500 selling pressure but VIX bullish","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 15, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average put in a strong blue candle last week, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow bearish divergence\u00a0 continues to warn of a reversal. Exercise caution until there is a breakout above the August high of 37% on TMF following an index breakout above 15660. Failure of primary support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12895,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/risk-of-a-global-down-turn-remains-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":13793,"position":5},"title":"Risk of a global down-turn remains high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock markets in Asia and Europe have clearly tipped into a primary down-trend but the US remains tentative. The weight of the market is on the sell side and the risk of a global down-turn remains high. Dow Jones Global Index found support at 270 and is rallying to test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Global Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-02-28-djw.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13793\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}